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Project2.1.6:Fromexposuretorisk:novelexperimentalapproachestoanalysecumulativeimpactsand
determinethresholdsintheGBRWHAS.Uthicke,K.Anthony,K.Fabricius,C.Brunner,S.
Noonan,R.Ferrari,S.dePerna,A.Negri
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
Outline
Introduction:TheprojectandCI
Experimentalapproaches
Ecotox andModellingTools
Summary
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
Impact types relevant for the GBR
modifiedafterDuarte2013:http://theconversation.com/auditing-the-seven-plagues-of-coastalecosystems-13637
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
http://nesptropical.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NESP-TWQ-1.6-FINAL-REPORT.pdf
NESP 1.6 Report
• Gapanalysisofexistingknowledge• ReviewofMethodsandTools:
• Ecotox/Ecophysiology• Statstoolstointerpretfieldand
experimentaldata• Modellingtools
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
WebofSciencesearchesforeachpressureandresponsegroup
Gap analysis: cumulative impacts on corals reef organisms
Uthicke, S., Fabricius, K., De’ath, G., Negri, A., Warne, M., Smith, R., Noonan, S., Johansson, C., Gorsuch, H. and Anthony, K. (2016). http://nesptropical.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NESP-TWQ-1.6-FINAL-REPORT.pdf.
0 10 20 30 40 50
2x2
3x3
4x3
5x2
8x2
10x6
NumberofStudies
FactorLevelsS
tudied
• 55%ofstudiesonly2х 2factors
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
P1T1 P1T2P1T3
P1AP1B
Examples
- A3rd developmentwhere2exist
- Repeateddredging- Seasonalrunoff
P1C
P1P1P1
SamepressureRepeated
Simultaneous
P1- Pesticides- Nutrients
Chronic
Combinationsofabove
Time
- Dredginginseveralareasfor1development
Types of Cumulative pressures (A)
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.Time
P1P2
P1P2
- NutrientrunoffandSSTincrease- TrawlingandDredging- OAandSSTincrease- OverfishingandNutrientrunoff
Multiplepressures,complexinteractions
P1P2
- OAandFloodplumes
P1
P2
P3
- Cotsà Cycloneà Bleaching
Successive
BothChronic
Acute/Ramping
1Acute/1Chronic
Types of Cumulative pressures (B)
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
NESP TWQ – Project 2.1.6: from exposure to risk
• Filling Data Gaps:– Experimental analyses of concentration-response relationships.– Climate adjusted Thresholds
• Produce exposure maps for individual stressors and summarize those into cumulative exposure maps.
• Explore avenues to assess ecosystem/ecological risks• Identify management opportunities to reduce the risk level of different
regions of the GBR.
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
Outline
NESPPrioritisation
Experimentalapproaches
Ecotox aand ModellingTools
Summary
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
Example 1: Nutrients, Sediments & Temperature
Adriana Humanes AIMS@JCUCumulative stress on coral reproduction
+ RecruitFertilization
1st cleavage(2h)
8cell(4h)
Larvae(5-day-old))
Roundstage(36h)
• Humanes, A., Finkd, A., Willis, B.L., Fabricius, K.E., de Beer, D. and Negri, A.P. (2017) Effects of suspended sediments and nutrient enrichment on juvenile corals. Marine Pollution Bulletin.
• Humanes, A., Noonan, S.H.C., Willis, B.L., Fabricius, K.E. and Negri, A.P. (2016) Cumulative effects of nutrient enrichment and elevated temperature compromise the early life history stages of the coral Acropora tenuis. PLoSONE 11(8), e0161616.
• Humanes, A., Ricardo, G.F., Willis, B.L., Fabricius, K.E. and Negri, A.P. (2017) Cumulative effects of suspended sediments, organic nutrients and temperature stress on early life history stages of the coral Acropora tenuis. Scientific Reports 7, 44101.
P1
P2
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
EC50 =37mgl-1
EC50 =25mgl-1
EC50 =18mgl-1
z
5× 3
%Fertiliza
tion
0
20
40
60
80
100
051030100
Suspendedsediments(mg/l)
27
30
32
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
Example 2: Cumulative climate & sedimentation effects on key reef species
Picturesby:G.Ricardo
Successfulsedimentclearanceat1-10mgcm2
A B
Minimalsedimentclearanceat100mgcm2
Forexample:Sedimentclearanceunderdifferenceclimatescenarios
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
Example 3: Effects of light and OA on corals
Expose 2 species of corals and their recruits for 49 days to 2 levels of CO2 (400, 900 ppm) and 4 light treatments (Daily Light Integrals = mol photon m-2 day-1):
High = 12.6 DLI, steady, Med = 7.6 DLI, steady, Var = 7.6 mean DLI, varying between days, Low = 2.5 DLI, steady):
Growth of two Acropora coral species is function of cumulative light exposure:• No difference between steady or variable noon light
at same DLI • 40% light reduction (steady or variable) -> 60%
growth decrease• 80% light reduction -> 30% growth.• No OA effect
Ø Every day of reduced light leads to smaller colonies
(K.Fabricius,S.Noonan,S.dePerna)
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
Example 4: Climate adjusted diuron thresholds for foraminifera and Halimeda after long term acclimation to future climate scenarios
JoseaneMarques(withA.Negri andS.Uthicke)
vanDam,J.W.,S.Uthicke,V.H.Beltran,J.F.Mueller,andA.P.Negri.2015.Combinedthermalandherbicidestressinfunctionallydiversecoralsymbionts.EnvironmentalPollution204:271-279.
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
Outline
IntroductionCI
ExperimentalandEcotox Tools
Ecotox andModellingTools
Summary
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
Uthicke, S., Fabricius, K., De’ath, G., Negri, A., Warne, M., Smith, R., Noonan, S., Johansson, C., Gorsuch, H. and Anthony, K. (2016). http://nesptropical.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NESP-TWQ-1.6-FINAL-REPORT.pdf.
Community effects: Multi-species Potentially Affected Fraction – Species Sensitivity Distributions
Moresensitivetothermalstressinthepresenceofdiuron
Assumesadditivity(responseaddition)
Diuron(µgl-1)
SSDdiuron
SSDthermal
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
ND E
ExposureandRiskmaps
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
TheIUCNRedListofEcosystems
Risk Assessments: e.g. IUCN Risk of ecosystem collapse
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.Alaniz,A.J.,M.Galleguillos,andJ.F.Perez-Quezada.2016.AssessmentofqualityofinputdatausedtoclassifyecosystemsaccordingtotheIUCNRedListmethodology:ThecaseofthecentralChilehotspot.BiologicalConservation204:378-385.
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
How can structured risk assessment help managers?
• Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models are valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key threats to be addressed by management.
• The Red List of Ecosystems risk assessment protocol can help understand interactions among threats (cumulative impacts) and evaluate potential levers for management.
• For example, assessment of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef found that herbivorous fish biomass was an insensitive indicator of the probability of ecosystem collapse
– à Managers were advised to monitor piscivorous fish biomass coral cover
Bland,L.M.,T.J.Regan,M.N.Dinh,R.Ferrari,D.A.Keith,R.Lester,D.Mouillot,N.J.Murray,H.A.Nguyen,andE.Nicholson.2017.ProceedingsoftheRoyalSocietyB:BiologicalSciences284.
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
- TwoworkshopsonCIorganisedduringNESP1andatthestartofNESP2- National(e.g.CSIRO)andinternational(e.g.SCOR)workshopsattended- RegulardiscussionsandresultspresentedtoGBRMPA,DoEE,DSITI- DirectcollaborationswithRachaelSmithatDSITI(onSSD)
Summary
End-userengagement/interaction
- Projectontrack- ExperimentsandRiskassessmentsunder
way- Studentandprojectstaffrecruited
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
Publications
Uthicke,S.,K.Fabricius,G.De’ath,A.Negri,R.Smith,M.Warne,S.Noonan,C.Johansson,H.Gorsuch,andK.Anthony.(2016)FinalReportProject1.6.ReporttotheNationalEnvironmentalScienceProgramme.ReefandRainforestResearchCentreLimited,Cairns(144pp.).
Adams,M.,Collier,C.,Uthicke,S.,Ow,Y.X.,Langlois,L.,O’Brien,K(2016)ScientificReports
AnthonyKRN.(2016)Annu.Rev.Environ.Resour.41,59–81Humanes A,NoonanSH,WillisBL,Fabricius KE,Negri AP(2016)PLoS ONE11:e0161616Humanes A,RicardoGF,WillisBL,Fabricius KE,Negri AP(2017)ScientificReports.7:44101.
WilkinsonAD,CollierCJ,FloresF,Langlois L,RalphPJ,Negri AP(2017)ScientificReports.7:45404
Humanes,A.,Finkd,A.,Willis,B.L.,Fabricius,K.E.,deBeer,D.andNegri,A.P.(inreview)MarinePollutionBulletin.Rocker,M.,Francis,D.,Fabricius,KE.,Willis,B.,Bay,L.MarPollBull
AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.
ThankYou!!
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