Project 2.1.6: From exposure to risk: novel experimental ... · Adriana Humanes AIMS@JCU Cumulative stress on coral reproduction + Fertilization Recruit 1st cleavage (2 h) 8 cell

Project2.1.6:Fromexposuretorisk:novelexperimentalapproachestoanalysecumulativeimpactsand

determinethresholdsintheGBRWHAS.Uthicke,K.Anthony,K.Fabricius,C.Brunner,S.

Noonan,R.Ferrari,S.dePerna,A.Negri

AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.

Outline

Introduction:TheprojectandCI

Experimentalapproaches

Ecotox andModellingTools

Summary


Impact types relevant for the GBR

modifiedafterDuarte2013:http://theconversation.com/auditing-the-seven-plagues-of-coastalecosystems-13637


http://nesptropical.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NESP-TWQ-1.6-FINAL-REPORT.pdf

NESP 1.6 Report

• Gapanalysisofexistingknowledge• ReviewofMethodsandTools:

• Ecotox/Ecophysiology• Statstoolstointerpretfieldand

experimentaldata• Modellingtools


WebofSciencesearchesforeachpressureandresponsegroup

Gap analysis: cumulative impacts on corals reef organisms

Uthicke, S., Fabricius, K., De’ath, G., Negri, A., Warne, M., Smith, R., Noonan, S., Johansson, C., Gorsuch, H. and Anthony, K. (2016). http://nesptropical.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NESP-TWQ-1.6-FINAL-REPORT.pdf.

0 10 20 30 40 50

2x2

3x3

4x3

5x2

8x2

10x6

NumberofStudies

FactorLevelsS

tudied

• 55%ofstudiesonly2х 2factors


P1T1 P1T2P1T3

P1AP1B

Examples

- A3rd developmentwhere2exist

- Repeateddredging- Seasonalrunoff

P1C

P1P1P1

SamepressureRepeated

Simultaneous

P1- Pesticides- Nutrients

Chronic

Combinationsofabove

Time

- Dredginginseveralareasfor1development

Types of Cumulative pressures (A)

AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.Time

P1P2

P1P2

- NutrientrunoffandSSTincrease- TrawlingandDredging- OAandSSTincrease- OverfishingandNutrientrunoff

Multiplepressures,complexinteractions

P1P2

- OAandFloodplumes

P1

P2

P3

- Cotsà Cycloneà Bleaching

Successive

BothChronic

Acute/Ramping

1Acute/1Chronic

Types of Cumulative pressures (B)


NESP TWQ – Project 2.1.6: from exposure to risk

• Filling Data Gaps:– Experimental analyses of concentration-response relationships.– Climate adjusted Thresholds

• Produce exposure maps for individual stressors and summarize those into cumulative exposure maps.

• Explore avenues to assess ecosystem/ecological risks• Identify management opportunities to reduce the risk level of different

regions of the GBR.


Outline

NESPPrioritisation

Experimentalapproaches

Ecotox aand ModellingTools

Summary


Example 1: Nutrients, Sediments & Temperature

Adriana Humanes AIMS@JCUCumulative stress on coral reproduction

+ RecruitFertilization

1st cleavage(2h)

8cell(4h)

Larvae(5-day-old))

Roundstage(36h)

• Humanes, A., Finkd, A., Willis, B.L., Fabricius, K.E., de Beer, D. and Negri, A.P. (2017) Effects of suspended sediments and nutrient enrichment on juvenile corals. Marine Pollution Bulletin.

• Humanes, A., Noonan, S.H.C., Willis, B.L., Fabricius, K.E. and Negri, A.P. (2016) Cumulative effects of nutrient enrichment and elevated temperature compromise the early life history stages of the coral Acropora tenuis. PLoSONE 11(8), e0161616.

• Humanes, A., Ricardo, G.F., Willis, B.L., Fabricius, K.E. and Negri, A.P. (2017) Cumulative effects of suspended sediments, organic nutrients and temperature stress on early life history stages of the coral Acropora tenuis. Scientific Reports 7, 44101.

P1

P2


EC50 =37mgl-1

EC50 =25mgl-1

EC50 =18mgl-1

z

5× 3

%Fertiliza

tion

0

20

40

60

80

100

051030100

Suspendedsediments(mg/l)

27

30

32


Example 2: Cumulative climate & sedimentation effects on key reef species

Picturesby:G.Ricardo

Successfulsedimentclearanceat1-10mgcm2

A B

Minimalsedimentclearanceat100mgcm2

Forexample:Sedimentclearanceunderdifferenceclimatescenarios


Example 3: Effects of light and OA on corals

Expose 2 species of corals and their recruits for 49 days to 2 levels of CO2 (400, 900 ppm) and 4 light treatments (Daily Light Integrals = mol photon m-2 day-1):

High = 12.6 DLI, steady, Med = 7.6 DLI, steady, Var = 7.6 mean DLI, varying between days, Low = 2.5 DLI, steady):

Growth of two Acropora coral species is function of cumulative light exposure:• No difference between steady or variable noon light

at same DLI • 40% light reduction (steady or variable) -> 60%

growth decrease• 80% light reduction -> 30% growth.• No OA effect

Ø Every day of reduced light leads to smaller colonies

(K.Fabricius,S.Noonan,S.dePerna)


Example 4: Climate adjusted diuron thresholds for foraminifera and Halimeda after long term acclimation to future climate scenarios

JoseaneMarques(withA.Negri andS.Uthicke)

vanDam,J.W.,S.Uthicke,V.H.Beltran,J.F.Mueller,andA.P.Negri.2015.Combinedthermalandherbicidestressinfunctionallydiversecoralsymbionts.EnvironmentalPollution204:271-279.


Outline

IntroductionCI

ExperimentalandEcotox Tools

Ecotox andModellingTools

Summary


Uthicke, S., Fabricius, K., De’ath, G., Negri, A., Warne, M., Smith, R., Noonan, S., Johansson, C., Gorsuch, H. and Anthony, K. (2016). http://nesptropical.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NESP-TWQ-1.6-FINAL-REPORT.pdf.

Community effects: Multi-species Potentially Affected Fraction – Species Sensitivity Distributions

Moresensitivetothermalstressinthepresenceofdiuron

Assumesadditivity(responseaddition)

Diuron(µgl-1)

SSDdiuron

SSDthermal


ND E

ExposureandRiskmaps


TheIUCNRedListofEcosystems

Risk Assessments: e.g. IUCN Risk of ecosystem collapse

AIMS Open Day 2015 AIMS: Australia’s tropical marine research agency.Alaniz,A.J.,M.Galleguillos,andJ.F.Perez-Quezada.2016.AssessmentofqualityofinputdatausedtoclassifyecosystemsaccordingtotheIUCNRedListmethodology:ThecaseofthecentralChilehotspot.BiologicalConservation204:378-385.


How can structured risk assessment help managers?

• Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models are valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key threats to be addressed by management.

• The Red List of Ecosystems risk assessment protocol can help understand interactions among threats (cumulative impacts) and evaluate potential levers for management.

• For example, assessment of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef found that herbivorous fish biomass was an insensitive indicator of the probability of ecosystem collapse

– à Managers were advised to monitor piscivorous fish biomass coral cover

Bland,L.M.,T.J.Regan,M.N.Dinh,R.Ferrari,D.A.Keith,R.Lester,D.Mouillot,N.J.Murray,H.A.Nguyen,andE.Nicholson.2017.ProceedingsoftheRoyalSocietyB:BiologicalSciences284.


- TwoworkshopsonCIorganisedduringNESP1andatthestartofNESP2- National(e.g.CSIRO)andinternational(e.g.SCOR)workshopsattended- RegulardiscussionsandresultspresentedtoGBRMPA,DoEE,DSITI- DirectcollaborationswithRachaelSmithatDSITI(onSSD)

Summary

End-userengagement/interaction

- Projectontrack- ExperimentsandRiskassessmentsunder

way- Studentandprojectstaffrecruited


Publications

Uthicke,S.,K.Fabricius,G.De’ath,A.Negri,R.Smith,M.Warne,S.Noonan,C.Johansson,H.Gorsuch,andK.Anthony.(2016)FinalReportProject1.6.ReporttotheNationalEnvironmentalScienceProgramme.ReefandRainforestResearchCentreLimited,Cairns(144pp.).

Adams,M.,Collier,C.,Uthicke,S.,Ow,Y.X.,Langlois,L.,O’Brien,K(2016)ScientificReports

AnthonyKRN.(2016)Annu.Rev.Environ.Resour.41,59–81Humanes A,NoonanSH,WillisBL,Fabricius KE,Negri AP(2016)PLoS ONE11:e0161616Humanes A,RicardoGF,WillisBL,Fabricius KE,Negri AP(2017)ScientificReports.7:44101.

WilkinsonAD,CollierCJ,FloresF,Langlois L,RalphPJ,Negri AP(2017)ScientificReports.7:45404

Humanes,A.,Finkd,A.,Willis,B.L.,Fabricius,K.E.,deBeer,D.andNegri,A.P.(inreview)MarinePollutionBulletin.Rocker,M.,Francis,D.,Fabricius,KE.,Willis,B.,Bay,L.MarPollBull


ThankYou!!

Documents

Project 2.1.6: From exposure to risk: novel experimental ... · Adriana Humanes AIMS@JCU Cumulative stress on coral reproduction + Fertilization Recruit 1st cleavage (2 h) 8 cell