Presented at the: Second Symposium Innovations in Freight Demand Modeling & Data Improvement SHRP2...
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- Slide 1
- Presented at the: Second Symposium Innovations in Freight
Demand Modeling & Data Improvement SHRP2 Strategic Highway
Research Program Washington, D.C. USA October 21-22, 2013 Iowa DOT
with Parsons Brinckerhoff Rail Freight Commodity Models: A First
Generation Effort in Iowa
- Slide 2
- Outline 2 Evolution of Iowa DOT Activities Statewide Traffic
Model Interest in Truck & Rail Commodity Models Rail Commodity
Architecture Confidential Rail Waybill in Iowa FAF3 to County
Processing of Commodity Flows Rail Freight Modeling Applicability
to States, MPOs and Decision Makers
- Slide 3
- Evolution of Iowa DOT Activities 3
- Slide 4
- History of Statewide Modeling in Iowa 4 First Generation
Traffic Model Developed 2005-2007 Focused on Auto and Truck Traffic
Applied for Planning, Engineering & Safety Studies Resource for
MPO and RPA (Regional Planning Affiliation) Modeling (the DOT
serves nine MPOs) Known as iTRAM Second Generation Statewide Model
In progress 2012-2014 Provides an update to the 2007 traffic model
Begins an emphasis on freight and commodity movements
- Slide 5
- 5 Iowas Central Location
- Slide 6
- 6 iTRAM Traffic Analysis Zones (1,951)
- Slide 7
- Interest in Commodity Flow Issues 7 Need for Commodity Flow
Models Estimate Freight Rail Capacity Needs Serve Passenger Rail
Models Use in Business Decision Making New Warehouse, Distribution
Center Location Short Line Railroad Planning Rail Ownership Changes
Study Partners Iowa DOT: Offices of Systems Planning and Rail
Federal Railroad Administration
- Slide 8
- Iowa Corn Ton-Miles by Rail LUPA/2012 One Suggested Reporting
Metric of iTRAM Freight Commodity Model
- Slide 9
- iTRAM Freight Commodity Architecture 9
- Slide 10
- Sequencing of Activities in iTRAM Update 10 Prepare
Comprehensive Model Architecture Traffic Model Update Truck Model
Update Rail Commodity Models Interface between the Moving Parts
Focus of this Presentation is Rail Commodity Data Inventory &
Processing Model Development Issues
- Slide 11
- 11
- Slide 12
- Freight Flows by Mode 12 * - unit of measure is thousand tons
** - does not include through trips Source: FHWA FAF3.4, Iowa,
Table KT_BYMODE, Year 2011 Freight Mode WithinFromTo Total of
within, to and from Iowa Tonnage % of Total Tonnage % of Total
Tonnage % of Total Tonnage % of Total Truck
252,19697%58,98662%44,23147% 355,41379% Rail
6,3892%20,31821%37,10840% 63,81514% Water 00%5,8886%8681% 6,7562%
Air 8690%9,63010%11,34112% 21,8405% Multiple modes & mail
Pipeline Other and unknown Total
259,454100%94,822100%93,548100%447,824100%
- Slide 13
- Architecture Highlights (Rail) 13 Rail Models produce both Rail
and Truck Demand Network Rail Assignment Deliverables Include:
Freight Rail Assignment Truck Trip Tables (to and from rail heads)
Approach must be Iowa-centric Investigate observed rail commodity
flows Address agriculture goods movements, including a variety of
exports and import of fertilizer and other. Develop future flows of
rail commodities
- Slide 14
- Confidential Rail Waybill 14
- Slide 15
- STB Confidential Rail Waybill 15 Review of the Surface
Transportation Board (STB) Carload Waybill Sample Complete file
(900 character) compared to the public use version (247 character)
Restricted distribution but used by many states for state
transportation plans Tabulations by origin-destination and Surface
Transportation Commodity Code (STCC) From/To Iowa Through Movements
Rail Network Assignment of Waybill Data Oak Ridge National
Laboratory (ORNL) rail network County to county flows
- Slide 16
- Quick Summary of Waybill 16 Coverage: All U.S. railroads that
terminate more than 4,500 revenue carloads must participate Sample
size based on number of carloads on waybill. In Iowa BNSF (48%) and
UP (40%) dominate Contents of Waybill Paperwork (waybill) for
moving the shipment Commodity type and weight (Surface
Transportation Commodity Code) Number and type of freight cars for
shipment Type of move Routing information Origin and termination
freight stations Railroads used and interchange locations between
railroads Origin-Destination Standard Point Location Code (SPLC)
State and county (FIPS) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) areas
Revenue Expansion factor
- Slide 17
- STB Class I Railroads plus Iowa Interstate RR 17
- Slide 18
- National Class I Rail Network 18
- Slide 19
- Mapping the Waybill Sample 19 Develop national coordinate
system GIS projection Miles/degree latitude-longitude at Des Moines
Create assignment network from ORNL rail network ESRI shapefile to
assignable network Replace lat-long with national coordinates
Impedance based on ORNL main line class variable Move waybill into
workable database format Origin/termination county, Canadian
province or Mexican state County centroid coordinates Locate
nearest rail nodes to county centroids for selected waybill records
Assign selected waybill records onto network
- Slide 20
- Iowa Waybill Total Annual Tons 20
- Slide 21
- Iowa Rail Exports: Food Products 21
- Slide 22
- Trailer/Container on Flatcar to Iowa Interchanges 22
- Slide 23
- Iowa Rail Exports: Farm Products 23
- Slide 24
- Next Steps 24 Detailed rail network inside Iowa Locate points
where commodities are loaded onto network (originating and
trans-shipment) Add link and node details (ownership, track rights,
tracks, travel times, signaling, interline junctions) Validate
against waybill routings Clean up national network and national
zone system Eliminate extraneous links Compatible to detailed Iowa
link and node variables Disaggregate to Iowa TAZs Iowa employment
2007 Economic Census Future flows
- Slide 25
- FAF3 Processing to Counties 25
- Slide 26
- FAF3 Disaggregation to Counties 26 Match counties to FAF3
regions 3143 counties including Hawaii and Alaska Renumbered
counties and FAF3 regions Relate types of employment to the origins
and destinations of SCTG category commodity flows Develop county as
share of FAF3 region allocation factors Balance FAF3 regional flows
to counties
- Slide 27
- Base County Employment Data 27 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Largely developed from state unemployment insurance reporting (form
ES-202) Employment not covered by unemployment insurance added by
BEA Reported by two digit North American Industry Classification
System (NAICS) at county level County Business Patterns Derived
from census business establishment surveys and federal
administration records Subject to data suppression when individual
firms can be identified Reported by six digit NAICS but data
suppression increases with added detail
- Slide 28
- Commodity-Employment Regressions: Fuel Oils (SCTG 18) 28
NAICSDefinitionNormalized Weight CBP_324Petroleum and Coal Products
Manufacturing0.79 CBP_4247 Petroleum and Petroleum Products
Merchant Wholesalers 0.21
- Slide 29
- Three Sets of Commodity Flow Tables 29 Annual county to county
domestic flows by mode and commodity Need modes other than rail for
mode choice analyses Four modes truck, rail, water, and multimodal
and forty-three commodities 165 commodity flow tables produced of
172 possible Annual foreign region to county import flows by mode
and commodity Annual county to foreign region export flows by mode
and commodity 3143 counties
- Slide 30
- Rail Freight Modeling 30
- Slide 31
- Network Coding Elements 31
- Slide 32
- Model Components: Base Year and Future Commodity Flow Tables 32
Annual base year rail commodity flow tables built from Iowa Carload
Waybill Sample Two digit STCC commodity code (max of 38
commodities) Compare against FAF 3 BEA economic areas, counties,
points of entry, major generators within Iowa with rail access Four
sets of tables defined by movement Base and future year commodity
flow tables (all modes) built from FAF 3 Base: reallocated from FAF
3 zones to BEA areas/counties, etc. Future: IPF base tables using
FAF 3 growth estimates
- Slide 33
- Model Components: Commodity Mode Shares 33 Estimation data set
by commodity Observed flows Carload Waybill Sample FAF 3 commodity
flow tables Cost to ship commodity by mode per ton per mile Network
skimmed and scaled distances Application within state New commodity
source or consumption location Added or removed intermodal
facility
- Slide 34
- Iowa Processed Food (SCTG 7): Rail Domestic Shipment Origins
34
- Slide 35
- Iowa Processed Food (SCTG 7): Rail Domestic Shipment
Destinations 35
- Slide 36
- Iowa Processed Food (SCTG 7): Truck Domestic Shipment
Destinations 36
- Slide 37
- Iowa Animal Feed (SCTG 4): Rail Domestic Shipment Destinations
37
- Slide 38
- Iowa Alcoholic Beverages (SCTG 8): Rail Domestic Shipment
Destinations 38
- Slide 39
- Cereal Grain (SCTG 2) Shipments from OBrien County (Tons 1000s)
39 Domestic Mode Iowa Balance US CanadaMexicoAmericasEuropeAfrica
SW and Central Asia Eastern Asia SE Asia and Oceania
Truck3903.8515.53.00.0 0.30.10.0 Rail94.0127.05.865.80.10.50.0
1.50.0 Water0.0134.10.02.91.50.64.60.49.90.0 Multi- Modal
7.696.80.02.10.30.00.50.06.60.1
- Slide 40
- OBrien County Iowa Grain Flows and Ethyl Alcohol Manufacturing
Employees 40
- Slide 41
- OBrien County Iowa Grain Flows and Farm Product Wholesalers
Employees 41
- Slide 42
- Rail Domestic Coal Tons 42
- Slide 43
- Rail Domestic All Commodity Tons 43
- Slide 44
- Rail Domestic All Commodity Tons 44
- Slide 45
- Screen Line Locations 45 Screen Line 1 Screen Line 2 Screen
Line 3
- Slide 46
- Total Commodity (Tons 1000s) Screen Line Crossings 46 Screen
Line 1Screen Line 2Screen Line 3 FAF3CWSFAF3CWSFAF3CWS East to
West9,83412,2518,79114,735 West to East145,768132,670149,177128,946
North to South23,44038,103 South to North18,51813,291
- Slide 47
- Major Tasks Remaining 47 Repeat FAF3 disaggregation for 2040
Finalize commodity tables Rail network for assignment Clean up ORNL
network outside Iowa Add waterways as pseudo rail mode Incorporate
detailed Iowa rail network Rail access points inside detailed zones
Mode choice model development and implementation Highway versus
rail/highway versus rail Rail versus water Assignment procedure and
export of truck portion of truck-rail flows Package final product
in selected software
- Slide 48
- Applicability to States, MPOs and Decision Makers 48
- Slide 49
- Uses of the Iowa Rail Commodity Model 49 Summary statistics:
Rail ton-miles by commodity within Iowa, base and future. What if
Analysis: Test placement of a new truck-rail intermodal or mega-
warehouse/distribution center. Test the viability of a new short
line railroad. Rail ownership changes.
- Slide 50
- Transferability 50 May not be readily transferable to smaller
scale geographies such as MPOs or corridors. Scale of MPO may
preclude accuracy since the disaggregation process from county to
TAZ depends on local employment or land use data. At state or
regional scales, the iTRAM rail freight commodity concept is
expected to be transferable Local knowledge is required in the
adapting process (CWS) While very much a work in progress, the
iTRAM rail freight model is expected to advance the practice of
freight modeling nationwide.
- Slide 51
- Contact Information 51 Ron Eash Parsons Brinckerhoff 230 West
Monroe Street Suite 900 Chicago IL 60606 eashrw@pbworld.com