Presented at the: Second Symposium Innovations in Freight
Demand Modeling & Data Improvement SHRP2 Strategic Highway
Research Program Washington, D.C. USA October 21-22, 2013 Iowa DOT
with Parsons Brinckerhoff Rail Freight Commodity Models: A First
Generation Effort in Iowa
Slide 2
Outline 2 Evolution of Iowa DOT Activities Statewide Traffic
Model Interest in Truck & Rail Commodity Models Rail Commodity
Architecture Confidential Rail Waybill in Iowa FAF3 to County
Processing of Commodity Flows Rail Freight Modeling Applicability
to States, MPOs and Decision Makers
Slide 3
Evolution of Iowa DOT Activities 3
Slide 4
History of Statewide Modeling in Iowa 4 First Generation
Traffic Model Developed 2005-2007 Focused on Auto and Truck Traffic
Applied for Planning, Engineering & Safety Studies Resource for
MPO and RPA (Regional Planning Affiliation) Modeling (the DOT
serves nine MPOs) Known as iTRAM Second Generation Statewide Model
In progress 2012-2014 Provides an update to the 2007 traffic model
Begins an emphasis on freight and commodity movements
Slide 5
5 Iowas Central Location
Slide 6
6 iTRAM Traffic Analysis Zones (1,951)
Slide 7
Interest in Commodity Flow Issues 7 Need for Commodity Flow
Models Estimate Freight Rail Capacity Needs Serve Passenger Rail
Models Use in Business Decision Making New Warehouse, Distribution
Center Location Short Line Railroad Planning Rail Ownership Changes
Study Partners Iowa DOT: Offices of Systems Planning and Rail
Federal Railroad Administration
Slide 8
Iowa Corn Ton-Miles by Rail LUPA/2012 One Suggested Reporting
Metric of iTRAM Freight Commodity Model
Slide 9
iTRAM Freight Commodity Architecture 9
Slide 10
Sequencing of Activities in iTRAM Update 10 Prepare
Comprehensive Model Architecture Traffic Model Update Truck Model
Update Rail Commodity Models Interface between the Moving Parts
Focus of this Presentation is Rail Commodity Data Inventory &
Processing Model Development Issues
Slide 11
11
Slide 12
Freight Flows by Mode 12 * - unit of measure is thousand tons
** - does not include through trips Source: FHWA FAF3.4, Iowa,
Table KT_BYMODE, Year 2011 Freight Mode WithinFromTo Total of
within, to and from Iowa Tonnage % of Total Tonnage % of Total
Tonnage % of Total Tonnage % of Total Truck
252,19697%58,98662%44,23147% 355,41379% Rail
6,3892%20,31821%37,10840% 63,81514% Water 00%5,8886%8681% 6,7562%
Air 8690%9,63010%11,34112% 21,8405% Multiple modes & mail
Pipeline Other and unknown Total
259,454100%94,822100%93,548100%447,824100%
Slide 13
Architecture Highlights (Rail) 13 Rail Models produce both Rail
and Truck Demand Network Rail Assignment Deliverables Include:
Freight Rail Assignment Truck Trip Tables (to and from rail heads)
Approach must be Iowa-centric Investigate observed rail commodity
flows Address agriculture goods movements, including a variety of
exports and import of fertilizer and other. Develop future flows of
rail commodities
Slide 14
Confidential Rail Waybill 14
Slide 15
STB Confidential Rail Waybill 15 Review of the Surface
Transportation Board (STB) Carload Waybill Sample Complete file
(900 character) compared to the public use version (247 character)
Restricted distribution but used by many states for state
transportation plans Tabulations by origin-destination and Surface
Transportation Commodity Code (STCC) From/To Iowa Through Movements
Rail Network Assignment of Waybill Data Oak Ridge National
Laboratory (ORNL) rail network County to county flows
Slide 16
Quick Summary of Waybill 16 Coverage: All U.S. railroads that
terminate more than 4,500 revenue carloads must participate Sample
size based on number of carloads on waybill. In Iowa BNSF (48%) and
UP (40%) dominate Contents of Waybill Paperwork (waybill) for
moving the shipment Commodity type and weight (Surface
Transportation Commodity Code) Number and type of freight cars for
shipment Type of move Routing information Origin and termination
freight stations Railroads used and interchange locations between
railroads Origin-Destination Standard Point Location Code (SPLC)
State and county (FIPS) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) areas
Revenue Expansion factor
Slide 17
STB Class I Railroads plus Iowa Interstate RR 17
Slide 18
National Class I Rail Network 18
Slide 19
Mapping the Waybill Sample 19 Develop national coordinate
system GIS projection Miles/degree latitude-longitude at Des Moines
Create assignment network from ORNL rail network ESRI shapefile to
assignable network Replace lat-long with national coordinates
Impedance based on ORNL main line class variable Move waybill into
workable database format Origin/termination county, Canadian
province or Mexican state County centroid coordinates Locate
nearest rail nodes to county centroids for selected waybill records
Assign selected waybill records onto network
Slide 20
Iowa Waybill Total Annual Tons 20
Slide 21
Iowa Rail Exports: Food Products 21
Slide 22
Trailer/Container on Flatcar to Iowa Interchanges 22
Slide 23
Iowa Rail Exports: Farm Products 23
Slide 24
Next Steps 24 Detailed rail network inside Iowa Locate points
where commodities are loaded onto network (originating and
trans-shipment) Add link and node details (ownership, track rights,
tracks, travel times, signaling, interline junctions) Validate
against waybill routings Clean up national network and national
zone system Eliminate extraneous links Compatible to detailed Iowa
link and node variables Disaggregate to Iowa TAZs Iowa employment
2007 Economic Census Future flows
Slide 25
FAF3 Processing to Counties 25
Slide 26
FAF3 Disaggregation to Counties 26 Match counties to FAF3
regions 3143 counties including Hawaii and Alaska Renumbered
counties and FAF3 regions Relate types of employment to the origins
and destinations of SCTG category commodity flows Develop county as
share of FAF3 region allocation factors Balance FAF3 regional flows
to counties
Slide 27
Base County Employment Data 27 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Largely developed from state unemployment insurance reporting (form
ES-202) Employment not covered by unemployment insurance added by
BEA Reported by two digit North American Industry Classification
System (NAICS) at county level County Business Patterns Derived
from census business establishment surveys and federal
administration records Subject to data suppression when individual
firms can be identified Reported by six digit NAICS but data
suppression increases with added detail
Three Sets of Commodity Flow Tables 29 Annual county to county
domestic flows by mode and commodity Need modes other than rail for
mode choice analyses Four modes truck, rail, water, and multimodal
and forty-three commodities 165 commodity flow tables produced of
172 possible Annual foreign region to county import flows by mode
and commodity Annual county to foreign region export flows by mode
and commodity 3143 counties
Slide 30
Rail Freight Modeling 30
Slide 31
Network Coding Elements 31
Slide 32
Model Components: Base Year and Future Commodity Flow Tables 32
Annual base year rail commodity flow tables built from Iowa Carload
Waybill Sample Two digit STCC commodity code (max of 38
commodities) Compare against FAF 3 BEA economic areas, counties,
points of entry, major generators within Iowa with rail access Four
sets of tables defined by movement Base and future year commodity
flow tables (all modes) built from FAF 3 Base: reallocated from FAF
3 zones to BEA areas/counties, etc. Future: IPF base tables using
FAF 3 growth estimates
Slide 33
Model Components: Commodity Mode Shares 33 Estimation data set
by commodity Observed flows Carload Waybill Sample FAF 3 commodity
flow tables Cost to ship commodity by mode per ton per mile Network
skimmed and scaled distances Application within state New commodity
source or consumption location Added or removed intermodal
facility
Cereal Grain (SCTG 2) Shipments from OBrien County (Tons 1000s)
39 Domestic Mode Iowa Balance US CanadaMexicoAmericasEuropeAfrica
SW and Central Asia Eastern Asia SE Asia and Oceania
Truck3903.8515.53.00.0 0.30.10.0 Rail94.0127.05.865.80.10.50.0
1.50.0 Water0.0134.10.02.91.50.64.60.49.90.0 Multi- Modal
7.696.80.02.10.30.00.50.06.60.1
Slide 40
OBrien County Iowa Grain Flows and Ethyl Alcohol Manufacturing
Employees 40
Slide 41
OBrien County Iowa Grain Flows and Farm Product Wholesalers
Employees 41
Slide 42
Rail Domestic Coal Tons 42
Slide 43
Rail Domestic All Commodity Tons 43
Slide 44
Rail Domestic All Commodity Tons 44
Slide 45
Screen Line Locations 45 Screen Line 1 Screen Line 2 Screen
Line 3
Slide 46
Total Commodity (Tons 1000s) Screen Line Crossings 46 Screen
Line 1Screen Line 2Screen Line 3 FAF3CWSFAF3CWSFAF3CWS East to
West9,83412,2518,79114,735 West to East145,768132,670149,177128,946
North to South23,44038,103 South to North18,51813,291
Slide 47
Major Tasks Remaining 47 Repeat FAF3 disaggregation for 2040
Finalize commodity tables Rail network for assignment Clean up ORNL
network outside Iowa Add waterways as pseudo rail mode Incorporate
detailed Iowa rail network Rail access points inside detailed zones
Mode choice model development and implementation Highway versus
rail/highway versus rail Rail versus water Assignment procedure and
export of truck portion of truck-rail flows Package final product
in selected software
Slide 48
Applicability to States, MPOs and Decision Makers 48
Slide 49
Uses of the Iowa Rail Commodity Model 49 Summary statistics:
Rail ton-miles by commodity within Iowa, base and future. What if
Analysis: Test placement of a new truck-rail intermodal or mega-
warehouse/distribution center. Test the viability of a new short
line railroad. Rail ownership changes.
Slide 50
Transferability 50 May not be readily transferable to smaller
scale geographies such as MPOs or corridors. Scale of MPO may
preclude accuracy since the disaggregation process from county to
TAZ depends on local employment or land use data. At state or
regional scales, the iTRAM rail freight commodity concept is
expected to be transferable Local knowledge is required in the
adapting process (CWS) While very much a work in progress, the
iTRAM rail freight model is expected to advance the practice of
freight modeling nationwide.
Slide 51
Contact Information 51 Ron Eash Parsons Brinckerhoff 230 West
Monroe Street Suite 900 Chicago IL 60606 [email protected]
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