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Presentation to the Legislative Finance CommitteeJanuary 15, 2018
The LFC has a review of the crime increase in the Bernalillo County/Albuquerque area on the work plan◦ Target completion date is Spring 2018◦ Others have also been working on this issue (UNM,
Bernalillo County, City of ABQ, Bloomberg Philanthropies, Virginia Tech, and others)
Today’s presentation will describe the current situation in the BernCo/ABQ area including:◦ Benchmarking crime with other cities in NM and
nationally◦ Discussing key reforms that have happened and system
function at key points◦ Discussing what works in deterring crime and reducing
criminal behavior and next steps in the review
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3
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Inci
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s Pe
r 100
,000
Peo
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Total Crime Rate Albuquerque and United States (1985-2017)
ABQ USSource: FBI and DPS UCR Data
Property crime started increasing in 2010 Violent crime started increasing in 2013
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Inci
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s Pe
r 100
,000
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Property Crime Rate
ABQ Similar Cities USSource: FBI
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Inci
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s Pe
r 100
,000
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Violent Crime Rate
ABQ Similar Cities US
Note: Similar cities are defined as those with a population from 500,000 to 999,999
From the FBI:◦ Many entities—news media, tourism agencies, and
other groups with an interest in crime in our Nation—use figures from the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program to compile rankings of cities and counties. These rankings, however, are merely a quick choice made by the data user; they provide no insight into the many variables that mold the crime in a particular town, city, county, state, region, or other jurisdiction. Consequently, these rankings lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting cities and counties, along with their residents.
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The ABQ crime rate is higher than average of other NM cities
Some areas of the state have higher crime rates than ABQ
NM Cities With Highest Crime Rates Per 1,000* (2016)
City
Violent Crime
Per 1,000
Property Crime
Per 1,000
Total Crime
Per 1,000Belen 17.1 75.3 92.5
Taos 9.9 78.7 88.6
Gallup 17.3 70.0 87.3
Espanola 26.7 55.5 82.3
Albuquerque 11.1 68.6 79.7
Source: FBI UCR*Note: Crime per 1,000 is used here in place of crime per 1,000 in order to make crime rates of cities with populations under 1,000 more meaningful
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01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
Inci
dent
s Pe
r 10
0,00
0 Pe
ople
Total crime rate per 100,000
Albuquerque
NM not including AlbuquerqueSource: FBI UCR
26% Increase
1.5% Decrease
7Source: FBI
Aggravated Assaults,
3,121
Aggravated Assaults,
3,846
Robbery, 1,381
Robbery, 1,957Rape, 402
Rape, 381
Homicide, 30
Homicide, 61
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2014 2016
Violent Crime in Albuquerque (2014 and 2016)
Aggravated Assaults Robbery Rape Homicide
Larceny, 20,756
Larceny, 24,582
Auto Thefts, 3,558
Auto Thefts, 7,710
Burglary, 6,123
Burglary, 6,236
Arson, 86
Arson, 117
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2014 2016
Property Crime in Albuquerque (2014 and 2016)
Larceny Auto Thefts Burglary Arson
When compared to crime trends in the 30 largest cities in the US, Albuquerque is ranked:◦ 1st in increases in all crime (26% increase)◦ 4th in increase in violent crime (26% increase)◦ 1st in increase for property crime (26% increase)◦ 1st in increase for murder (102% increase)
On average over the same period, crime decreased in the 30 largest cities by 2.8%
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Sources: FBI UCR, Brennen Center For JusticeNote: This work was informed by the University of New Mexico Institute for Social Research
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Sources: FBI UCR, Brennen Center For JusticeNote: This work was informed by the University of New Mexico Institute for Social Research
Albuquerque Crime Rate Rankings Among 30 Largest US Cities
1996 2006 2014 2016
All Crime 5th 9th 3rd 1st
Violent 12th 13th 7th 5th
Property 2nd 9th 2nd 1st
Murder 14th 27th 22nd 14th
Motor Vehicle Theft 6th 10th 7th 2nd
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Inci
dent
s Pe
r 10
0,00
0 Pe
ople
Albuquerque total crime rate per 100,000
Sources: City of ABQ, Bernalillo County, LFC, FBI
Feb 2015: CMO
implementedNov 2012: DOJ launches
investigation
Nov 2014: DOJ Settlement Agreement
Nov 2016: Constitutional Amendment/ Bail Reform
Oct 2013: Work begins on 46 initiatives focused on
pretrial justice, case processing, and jail
population reduction
Feb 2015: BernCo Imposes 1/8th %
GRT for BH Services
Jun 2013: Payment suspension to NM BH providers and hiring
of AZ providers
According to National Institute of Justice◦ The swiftness and certainty of being caught is a
vastly more powerful deterrent than the punishment ◦ Sending an individual convicted of a crime to prison
isn’t a very effective way to deter future crime◦ Police deter crime by increasing the perception that
criminals will be caught and punished◦ Increasing the severity of punishment does little to
deter crime◦ There is no proof that the death penalty deters
criminals
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Source: NIJ Five Things About DeterrenceNote: Research indicates not all criminal acts can be influenced by deterrence. The most significant effects appear to be on minor crimes (Dolling, Entorf, Hermann, & Rupp (2009))
There is a significant amount of research on the impact of program and policies on crime avoidance, recidivism, and return on investment.
LFC has been working with the Pew MacArthur Results First Initiative for 7 years to perform such analysis.
LFC plans to incorporate these tools into the review.
Resources:◦ Pew MacArthur Results First Clearinghouse:
http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/multimedia/data-visualizations/2015/results-first-clearinghouse-database
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Reported Crime
•APD, BCSO, UNM Police, Public
Arrests and Initial
Incarceration
•Law enforcement (e.g. APD, BCSO, UNM Police), MDC
Charges,
Pretrial Diversion
Indictments, Arraignments
•Court, District Attorney, Public Defender, Treatment Court, BH Providers
Conditions of Release, Pretrial Services
• Court, District Attorney, Public Defender, County (Pretrial services in 2nd Judicial District)
Trials, Pleas, Convictions, Sentencing
•Court, District Attorney, Public Defender
Incarceration and Reentry
•MDC, NMCD, BH Providers
Oversimplified Flow Chart of Criminal Justice System
• -We do not yet have any evidence that patterns in the CJ system are related to the ABQ crime rate
• -We do not yet know if rates (e.g. arrest rate, incarceration rate) are high or low
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
ABQ/Bernalillo Crime RateArrests and Charges
Crimes Arrests Charges
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
ABQ/Bernalillo Crime RateConvictions/Incarceration
Convicts Prison Jail Crimes
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Case
sCase Flow through Second District
Convict Dismiss Pending OpenedSource: AOC
Feb 2015: CMO implemented
People arrested 10 or more times account for 3.7% of the arrestee population.
People with 10 or more arrests account for 20.4% of all arrests
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1 arrest, 74,577,
58%
2 arrests, 19,944,
16%
3 to 9 arrests, 28,329,
22%
10 or more arrests,
4,669, 4%
Number of Arrests Per Person (2010-2016)
Source: Breaking the Crime Cycle: A Study on the Characteristics and Criminal Activity of Arrestees in Bernalillo County, Phase 1, UNM, City of ABQ, Virginia Tech
1 arrest, 24%
2 arrests, 13%
3 to 9 arrests, 42%
10 or more arrests, 20%
Share of Arrests Per Person (2010-2016)
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Source: Breaking the Crime Cycle: A Study on the Characteristics and Criminal Activity of Arrestees in Bernalillo County, Phase 1, UNM, City of ABQ, Virginia Tech
Bookings for Felonies have remained somewhat consistent whereas bookings for misdemeanors have dropped in half
Other Initiatives may have also contributed to the decline in the jail population
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Bookings By Highest Charge (FY12-FY17)
Felonies Misdemeanors Other
Sources: Bernalillo County, UNM, BCCJCC
Traditional factors including:◦ Economic conditions◦ Substance Abuse◦ Gang activity
System related issues including:◦ Diversion and Treatment (mostly dealing with substance
use)◦ Theory of “revolving door”◦ Police practices, arrests and rearrests◦ Benchmarking funding and staffing levels◦ Pretrial services/Court system◦ Sentencing and incarceration◦ Reentry from Jail and Prison
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LFC staff would like to acknowledge the assistance provided by the following agencies and organizations:◦ University of New Mexico Institute for Social Research◦ University of New Mexico Sentencing Commission◦ Administrative Office of the Courts◦ Albuquerque Police Department◦ 2nd Judicial District Court◦ 2nd Judicial District Attorney◦ Bernalillo County Metropolitan Court◦ Bernalillo County◦ City of Albuquerque◦ Department of Public Safety◦ Members of the Mental Health Response Advisory Committee
(MHRAC)◦ Members of the Bernalillo County Criminal Justice Coordinating
Council (BCCJCC)◦ Public Defender Department
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