Presentation to the Legislative Finance CommitteeJanuary 15, 2018

The LFC has a review of the crime increase in the Bernalillo County/Albuquerque area on the work plan◦ Target completion date is Spring 2018◦ Others have also been working on this issue (UNM,

Bernalillo County, City of ABQ, Bloomberg Philanthropies, Virginia Tech, and others)

Today’s presentation will describe the current situation in the BernCo/ABQ area including:◦ Benchmarking crime with other cities in NM and

nationally◦ Discussing key reforms that have happened and system

function at key points◦ Discussing what works in deterring crime and reducing

criminal behavior and next steps in the review

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

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Total Crime Rate Albuquerque and United States (1985-2017)

ABQ USSource: FBI and DPS UCR Data

Property crime started increasing in 2010 Violent crime started increasing in 2013

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Property Crime Rate

ABQ Similar Cities USSource: FBI

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Violent Crime Rate

ABQ Similar Cities US

Note: Similar cities are defined as those with a population from 500,000 to 999,999

From the FBI:◦ Many entities—news media, tourism agencies, and

other groups with an interest in crime in our Nation—use figures from the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program to compile rankings of cities and counties. These rankings, however, are merely a quick choice made by the data user; they provide no insight into the many variables that mold the crime in a particular town, city, county, state, region, or other jurisdiction. Consequently, these rankings lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting cities and counties, along with their residents.

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The ABQ crime rate is higher than average of other NM cities

Some areas of the state have higher crime rates than ABQ

NM Cities With Highest Crime Rates Per 1,000* (2016)

City

Violent Crime

Per 1,000

Property Crime

Per 1,000

Total Crime

Per 1,000Belen 17.1 75.3 92.5

Taos 9.9 78.7 88.6

Gallup 17.3 70.0 87.3

Espanola 26.7 55.5 82.3

Albuquerque 11.1 68.6 79.7

Source: FBI UCR*Note: Crime per 1,000 is used here in place of crime per 1,000 in order to make crime rates of cities with populations under 1,000 more meaningful

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01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

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Total crime rate per 100,000

Albuquerque

NM not including AlbuquerqueSource: FBI UCR

26% Increase

1.5% Decrease

7Source: FBI

Aggravated Assaults,

3,121

Aggravated Assaults,

3,846

Robbery, 1,381

Robbery, 1,957Rape, 402

Rape, 381

Homicide, 30

Homicide, 61

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2014 2016

Violent Crime in Albuquerque (2014 and 2016)

Aggravated Assaults Robbery Rape Homicide

Larceny, 20,756

Larceny, 24,582

Auto Thefts, 3,558

Auto Thefts, 7,710

Burglary, 6,123

Burglary, 6,236

Arson, 86

Arson, 117

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Property Crime in Albuquerque (2014 and 2016)

Larceny Auto Thefts Burglary Arson

When compared to crime trends in the 30 largest cities in the US, Albuquerque is ranked:◦ 1st in increases in all crime (26% increase)◦ 4th in increase in violent crime (26% increase)◦ 1st in increase for property crime (26% increase)◦ 1st in increase for murder (102% increase)

On average over the same period, crime decreased in the 30 largest cities by 2.8%

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Sources: FBI UCR, Brennen Center For JusticeNote: This work was informed by the University of New Mexico Institute for Social Research

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Sources: FBI UCR, Brennen Center For JusticeNote: This work was informed by the University of New Mexico Institute for Social Research

Albuquerque Crime Rate Rankings Among 30 Largest US Cities

1996 2006 2014 2016

All Crime 5th 9th 3rd 1st

Violent 12th 13th 7th 5th

Property 2nd 9th 2nd 1st

Murder 14th 27th 22nd 14th

Motor Vehicle Theft 6th 10th 7th 2nd

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Albuquerque total crime rate per 100,000

Sources: City of ABQ, Bernalillo County, LFC, FBI

Feb 2015: CMO

implementedNov 2012: DOJ launches

investigation

Nov 2014: DOJ Settlement Agreement

Nov 2016: Constitutional Amendment/ Bail Reform

Oct 2013: Work begins on 46 initiatives focused on

pretrial justice, case processing, and jail

population reduction

Feb 2015: BernCo Imposes 1/8th %

GRT for BH Services

Jun 2013: Payment suspension to NM BH providers and hiring

of AZ providers

According to National Institute of Justice◦ The swiftness and certainty of being caught is a

vastly more powerful deterrent than the punishment ◦ Sending an individual convicted of a crime to prison

isn’t a very effective way to deter future crime◦ Police deter crime by increasing the perception that

criminals will be caught and punished◦ Increasing the severity of punishment does little to

deter crime◦ There is no proof that the death penalty deters

criminals

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Source: NIJ Five Things About DeterrenceNote: Research indicates not all criminal acts can be influenced by deterrence. The most significant effects appear to be on minor crimes (Dolling, Entorf, Hermann, & Rupp (2009))

There is a significant amount of research on the impact of program and policies on crime avoidance, recidivism, and return on investment.

LFC has been working with the Pew MacArthur Results First Initiative for 7 years to perform such analysis.

LFC plans to incorporate these tools into the review.

Resources:◦ Pew MacArthur Results First Clearinghouse:

http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/multimedia/data-visualizations/2015/results-first-clearinghouse-database

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Reported Crime

•APD, BCSO, UNM Police, Public

Arrests and Initial

Incarceration

•Law enforcement (e.g. APD, BCSO, UNM Police), MDC

Charges,

Pretrial Diversion

Indictments, Arraignments

•Court, District Attorney, Public Defender, Treatment Court, BH Providers

Conditions of Release, Pretrial Services

• Court, District Attorney, Public Defender, County (Pretrial services in 2nd Judicial District)

Trials, Pleas, Convictions, Sentencing

•Court, District Attorney, Public Defender

Incarceration and Reentry

•MDC, NMCD, BH Providers

Oversimplified Flow Chart of Criminal Justice System

• -We do not yet have any evidence that patterns in the CJ system are related to the ABQ crime rate

• -We do not yet know if rates (e.g. arrest rate, incarceration rate) are high or low

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

ABQ/Bernalillo Crime RateArrests and Charges

Crimes Arrests Charges

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ABQ/Bernalillo Crime RateConvictions/Incarceration

Convicts Prison Jail Crimes

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Case

sCase Flow through Second District

Convict Dismiss Pending OpenedSource: AOC

Feb 2015: CMO implemented

People arrested 10 or more times account for 3.7% of the arrestee population.

People with 10 or more arrests account for 20.4% of all arrests

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1 arrest, 74,577,

58%

2 arrests, 19,944,

16%

3 to 9 arrests, 28,329,

22%

10 or more arrests,

4,669, 4%

Number of Arrests Per Person (2010-2016)

Source: Breaking the Crime Cycle: A Study on the Characteristics and Criminal Activity of Arrestees in Bernalillo County, Phase 1, UNM, City of ABQ, Virginia Tech

1 arrest, 24%

2 arrests, 13%

3 to 9 arrests, 42%

10 or more arrests, 20%

Share of Arrests Per Person (2010-2016)

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Source: Breaking the Crime Cycle: A Study on the Characteristics and Criminal Activity of Arrestees in Bernalillo County, Phase 1, UNM, City of ABQ, Virginia Tech

Bookings for Felonies have remained somewhat consistent whereas bookings for misdemeanors have dropped in half

Other Initiatives may have also contributed to the decline in the jail population

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Bookings By Highest Charge (FY12-FY17)

Felonies Misdemeanors Other

Sources: Bernalillo County, UNM, BCCJCC

Traditional factors including:◦ Economic conditions◦ Substance Abuse◦ Gang activity

System related issues including:◦ Diversion and Treatment (mostly dealing with substance

use)◦ Theory of “revolving door”◦ Police practices, arrests and rearrests◦ Benchmarking funding and staffing levels◦ Pretrial services/Court system◦ Sentencing and incarceration◦ Reentry from Jail and Prison

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LFC staff would like to acknowledge the assistance provided by the following agencies and organizations:◦ University of New Mexico Institute for Social Research◦ University of New Mexico Sentencing Commission◦ Administrative Office of the Courts◦ Albuquerque Police Department◦ 2nd Judicial District Court◦ 2nd Judicial District Attorney◦ Bernalillo County Metropolitan Court◦ Bernalillo County◦ City of Albuquerque◦ Department of Public Safety◦ Members of the Mental Health Response Advisory Committee

(MHRAC)◦ Members of the Bernalillo County Criminal Justice Coordinating

Council (BCCJCC)◦ Public Defender Department

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