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Presentation to Post-Primary Review Presentation to Post-Primary Review Working Group – 19 June 2003Working Group – 19 June 2003
Features of the Current Arrangements
The Selective System The Selective System
System of grammar and secondary schools71 grammar schools (63,000 or 40% of pupils)
164 secondary schools (93,000 or 60% of pupils)
Differences within the selective system
Regional variations in access to places
The Selective System in The Selective System in PracticePractice
66% of P7 pupils sat the 2002/03 tests
Admission to grammar schools: 35.3% (2002/03)
Over/under-subscription
Negligible movement between school types until age 16
UK Comparisons: 2+ ‘A’ levels A-EUK Comparisons: 2+ ‘A’ levels A-E
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
% o
f Pup
ils
NI England
UK Comparisons: 5+ GCSEs A*-CUK Comparisons: 5+ GCSEs A*-C
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
% o
f Pup
ils
NI England Wales Scotland
UK Comparisons: 5+ GCSE A*-GUK Comparisons: 5+ GCSE A*-G
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
% o
f Pup
ils
NI England Wales
UK Comparisons: No GCSEsUK Comparisons: No GCSEs
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
% o
f Pup
ils
NI England Wales
Average GCSE Point Scores Average GCSE Point Scores
Male Female All Pupils
Northern Ireland
34.0 41.6 37.7
England 37.4 42.9 40.1
UK Comparisons: Average GCSE Point ScoresUK Comparisons: Average GCSE Point Scores
35.1 36.3 36.9 36.9 37.737 38.1 38.9 39.3 40.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02Year
Ave
rage
Poi
nt S
core
Northern Ireland England
International Comparisons:International Comparisons:PISA and International Adult Literacy PISA and International Adult Literacy
SurveySurveySignificantly better than OECD average.
Around 10th out of 32 in Reading, Maths and Science.
Performed similar to England (and Scotland).
One of the widest ranges of achievement.
24% of NI workforce at lowest literacy level.
% Grade A in Transfer Test by Free School % Grade A in Transfer Test by Free School Meal Band 2001/02Meal Band 2001/02
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
< 11% 11 - 20% 21 - 30% 31 - 40% 41 - 50% 51% +
FSM Band
% o
f Pup
ils
Average GCSE Point Score by Free School Average GCSE Point Score by Free School Meal Band (2001/02) for Secondary SchoolsMeal Band (2001/02) for Secondary Schools
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
<20 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
FSM Band
Aver
age
GC
SE P
oint
Sco
re
% of Pupils entitled to Free School Meals% of Pupils entitled to Free School Meals
Catholic Managed
Other Managed
Overall
Grammar 11.7 3.7 7.3
Secondary 37.0 22.3 29.4
5+ GCSEs A*-C for FSM and Non-FSM 5+ GCSEs A*-C for FSM and Non-FSM School LeaversSchool Leavers
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Non-FSM FSM
5+ GCSEs A*-G by FSM and Non-FSM 5+ GCSEs A*-G by FSM and Non-FSM School LeaversSchool Leavers
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Non-FSM FSM
No GCSEs by FSM and Non-FSM School No GCSEs by FSM and Non-FSM School LeaversLeavers
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Non-FSM FSM
GCSE Point Scores for All PupilsGCSE Point Scores for All Pupils
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
% o
f Pup
ils
Point Score
Grammar and Secondary Grammar and Secondary ComparisonsComparisons
% achieving Secondary Grammar
5 or more GCSEs A*-C 37 95
5 or more GCSEs A*-G 80 100
Average GCSE Point Score
28 57
GCSE Point Scores for Secondary GCSE Point Scores for Secondary and Grammar Pupilsand Grammar Pupils
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
% o
f Pup
ils
Point Score
Secondary Grammar
Comparison of top achieving secondary Comparison of top achieving secondary school pupils with grammar pupilsschool pupils with grammar pupils
Top 25% of Secondary All Grammar School Leavers School Leavers
% %
5+ GCSE’s
A*-C 100 96
5+ GCSE’s
A*-G 100 99
Variation in School Performance Variation in School Performance 2001/022001/02
Grammar Schools3+ A Levels A-C 7+ GCSEs A*-C
Top 10% 78% 99%Bottom 10% 46% 74%
Secondary Schools5+GCSEs A*-C 5+GCSEs A*-G
Top 10% 63% 98%Bottom 10% 12% 53%
Post-16 Participation RatesPost-16 Participation Rates
Schools FE Overall
Northern
Ireland
44.7 27.7 72.4
England* 31.3 33.5 64.9
•2001 Provisional figures for England•Sixth Form Colleges included in FE figure for England
Post-16 Provision in Post-16 Provision in Secondary SchoolsSecondary Schools
Schools % of cohort
% of Yr12 secondary
pupilsNo %
No 6th Form 52 22 17 27Limited provision (<80 pupils)
75 32 25 39
Of which Repeaters only
15 6 3 5
No or limited provision 127 54 42 66
Access To Higher EducationAccess To Higher Education
From social classes III, IV,V
UK 27%
Scotland 27%
NI 31%
Routes to Higher Education
•55% from grammar schools
•45% from secondary schools, FE Colleges and other sources
•Majority of working class entrants to HE come through non-grammar routes
DemographyDemography
Population projections
Impact on post-primary population
Impact on secondary schools
Impact on grammar schools
Population ProjectionsPopulation Projections
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2001
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2040
Age 11-18
Population ProjectionsPopulation Projections
2001 2010 2020 2040
11-18 population
212,541 195,086 172,868 158,058
% decrease
0 8 19 26
Post-Primary Age Population to decline by a quarter by 2040
School Population ProjectionsSchool Population Projections
020,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000
Grammar Secondary All Schools
Secondary:Grammar RatiosSecondary:Grammar Ratios
2002 2010 2015 2020 2025% Secondary
59 56 51 50 49
% Grammar
41 44 49 50 51
By 2020 grammar and secondary ration will be 50:50
Impact on Secondary SchoolsImpact on Secondary Schools
By 2010 - reduction of 12,000 pupils in secondary schools which equates to 21 secondary schools (based on average size of 560)
By 2020 - 31,000 pupils (55 schools)
Surplus PlacesSurplus Places
13,000 surplus places in post-primary schools (8%)
Almost 70% (113) secondary schools have surplus places
Nearly half (76) have 10% or more surplus places
Impact on Secondary SchoolsImpact on Secondary Schools
Viability of some schools – closures, amalgamations
Ability mix within schools
Impact will be greater in particular areas
Impact on Grammar SchoolsImpact on Grammar Schools
Ability mix within schools 8% of admissions to grammar schools are
Cs or Ds at present 21 grammar schools with 10%
admissions with Cs and Ds in Transfer Test
10 schools with 20% or more Cs and Ds admitted
Demography: Key PointsDemography: Key Points
Population to fall by a quarter by 2040
Full impact on secondary sector
Implications for rationalisation
Implications for ability mix in secondary and grammar schools
Forces For ChangeForces For Change
Dissatisfaction with Transfer TestWeaknesses in post-16 provisionCurricular changeFalling post-primary demography Changing social profile of intakes to HE
Forces for Change (Cont)Forces for Change (Cont)
Equality/human rights/inclusion agenda
Social cohesion
Globalisation/economic development
Local Assembly
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