Presentation to Post-Primary Review Presentation to Post-Primary Review Working Group – 19 June 2003Working Group – 19 June 2003

Features of the Current Arrangements

The Selective System The Selective System

System of grammar and secondary schools71 grammar schools (63,000 or 40% of pupils)

164 secondary schools (93,000 or 60% of pupils)

Differences within the selective system

Regional variations in access to places

The Selective System in The Selective System in PracticePractice

66% of P7 pupils sat the 2002/03 tests

Admission to grammar schools: 35.3% (2002/03)

Over/under-subscription

Negligible movement between school types until age 16

How does the NI system perform compared to other

countries?

UK Comparisons: 2+ ‘A’ levels A-EUK Comparisons: 2+ ‘A’ levels A-E

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

% o

f Pup

ils

NI England

UK Comparisons: 5+ GCSEs A*-CUK Comparisons: 5+ GCSEs A*-C

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

% o

f Pup

ils

NI England Wales Scotland

UK Comparisons: 5+ GCSE A*-GUK Comparisons: 5+ GCSE A*-G

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

% o

f Pup

ils

NI England Wales

UK Comparisons: No GCSEsUK Comparisons: No GCSEs

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

% o

f Pup

ils

NI England Wales

Average GCSE Point Scores Average GCSE Point Scores

Male Female All Pupils

Northern Ireland

34.0 41.6 37.7

England 37.4 42.9 40.1

UK Comparisons: Average GCSE Point ScoresUK Comparisons: Average GCSE Point Scores

35.1 36.3 36.9 36.9 37.737 38.1 38.9 39.3 40.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02Year

Ave

rage

Poi

nt S

core

Northern Ireland England

International Comparisons:International Comparisons:PISA and International Adult Literacy PISA and International Adult Literacy

SurveySurveySignificantly better than OECD average.

Around 10th out of 32 in Reading, Maths and Science.

Performed similar to England (and Scotland).

One of the widest ranges of achievement.

24% of NI workforce at lowest literacy level.

How Does the NI System perform for different groups?

% Grade A in Transfer Test by Free School % Grade A in Transfer Test by Free School Meal Band 2001/02Meal Band 2001/02

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

< 11% 11 - 20% 21 - 30% 31 - 40% 41 - 50% 51% +

FSM Band

% o

f Pup

ils

Average GCSE Point Score by Free School Average GCSE Point Score by Free School Meal Band (2001/02) for Secondary SchoolsMeal Band (2001/02) for Secondary Schools

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

<20 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+

FSM Band

Aver

age

GC

SE P

oint

Sco

re

% of Pupils entitled to Free School Meals% of Pupils entitled to Free School Meals

Catholic Managed

Other Managed

Overall

Grammar 11.7 3.7 7.3

Secondary 37.0 22.3 29.4

5+ GCSEs A*-C for FSM and Non-FSM 5+ GCSEs A*-C for FSM and Non-FSM School LeaversSchool Leavers

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Non-FSM FSM

5+ GCSEs A*-G by FSM and Non-FSM 5+ GCSEs A*-G by FSM and Non-FSM School LeaversSchool Leavers

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Non-FSM FSM

No GCSEs by FSM and Non-FSM School No GCSEs by FSM and Non-FSM School LeaversLeavers

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Non-FSM FSM

How does performance in Grammar and Secondary

schools compare?

GCSE Point Scores for All PupilsGCSE Point Scores for All Pupils

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

% o

f Pup

ils

Point Score

Grammar and Secondary Grammar and Secondary ComparisonsComparisons

% achieving Secondary Grammar

5 or more GCSEs A*-C 37 95

5 or more GCSEs A*-G 80 100

Average GCSE Point Score

28 57

GCSE Point Scores for Secondary GCSE Point Scores for Secondary and Grammar Pupilsand Grammar Pupils

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

% o

f Pup

ils

Point Score

Secondary Grammar

Comparison of top achieving secondary Comparison of top achieving secondary school pupils with grammar pupilsschool pupils with grammar pupils

Top 25% of Secondary All Grammar School Leavers School Leavers

% %

5+ GCSE’s

A*-C 100 96

5+ GCSE’s

A*-G 100 99

Variation in School Performance Variation in School Performance 2001/022001/02

Grammar Schools3+ A Levels A-C 7+ GCSEs A*-C

Top 10% 78% 99%Bottom 10% 46% 74%

Secondary Schools5+GCSEs A*-C 5+GCSEs A*-G

Top 10% 63% 98%Bottom 10% 12% 53%

How Does the NI system perform at post-16?

Post-16 Participation RatesPost-16 Participation Rates

Schools FE Overall

Northern

Ireland

44.7 27.7 72.4

England* 31.3 33.5 64.9

•2001 Provisional figures for England•Sixth Form Colleges included in FE figure for England

Post-16 Provision in Post-16 Provision in Secondary SchoolsSecondary Schools

Schools % of cohort

% of Yr12 secondary

pupilsNo %

No 6th Form 52 22 17 27Limited provision (<80 pupils)

75 32 25 39

Of which Repeaters only

15 6 3 5

No or limited provision 127 54 42 66

Access To Higher EducationAccess To Higher Education

From social classes III, IV,V

UK 27%

Scotland 27%

NI 31%

Routes to Higher Education

•55% from grammar schools

•45% from secondary schools, FE Colleges and other sources

•Majority of working class entrants to HE come through non-grammar routes

DemographyDemography

What impact will demography have on post-primary education?

DemographyDemography

Population projections

Impact on post-primary population

Impact on secondary schools

Impact on grammar schools

Population ProjectionsPopulation Projections

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2001

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2040

Age 11-18

Population ProjectionsPopulation Projections

2001 2010 2020 2040

11-18 population

212,541 195,086 172,868 158,058

% decrease

0 8 19 26

Post-Primary Age Population to decline by a quarter by 2040

How will this affect post-primary How will this affect post-primary schools?schools?

School Population ProjectionsSchool Population Projections

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000

Grammar Secondary All Schools

Secondary:Grammar RatiosSecondary:Grammar Ratios

2002 2010 2015 2020 2025% Secondary

59 56 51 50 49

% Grammar

41 44 49 50 51

By 2020 grammar and secondary ration will be 50:50

Impact on Secondary SchoolsImpact on Secondary Schools

By 2010 - reduction of 12,000 pupils in secondary schools which equates to 21 secondary schools (based on average size of 560)

By 2020 - 31,000 pupils (55 schools)

Surplus PlacesSurplus Places

13,000 surplus places in post-primary schools (8%)

Almost 70% (113) secondary schools have surplus places

Nearly half (76) have 10% or more surplus places

Impact on Secondary SchoolsImpact on Secondary Schools

Viability of some schools – closures, amalgamations

Ability mix within schools

Impact will be greater in particular areas

Impact on Grammar SchoolsImpact on Grammar Schools

Ability mix within schools 8% of admissions to grammar schools are

Cs or Ds at present 21 grammar schools with 10%

admissions with Cs and Ds in Transfer Test

10 schools with 20% or more Cs and Ds admitted

Demography: Key PointsDemography: Key Points

Population to fall by a quarter by 2040

Full impact on secondary sector

Implications for rationalisation

Implications for ability mix in secondary and grammar schools

Forces For ChangeForces For Change

Dissatisfaction with Transfer TestWeaknesses in post-16 provisionCurricular changeFalling post-primary demography Changing social profile of intakes to HE

Forces for Change (Cont)Forces for Change (Cont)

Equality/human rights/inclusion agenda

Social cohesion

Globalisation/economic development

Local Assembly

DiscussionDiscussion

What issues have been raised by this presentation?