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Climate Change and Resilience
Coastal Climate Resilient Infrastructure Project (CCRIP)
Map showing the study Area• Increase of Temperature•Increase of Rainfall•Sea Level Rise•Enhanced Tropical Cyclone•River Floods and Flash Floods•Erosion• Enhanced Tidal Inundation and Storm Surges•Wind Action
• Damages to infrastructure
• Agriculture• Industry• Housing sector• Livelihood• Health and Sanitation• Environment & Ecology
• Salinity• Water logging
•Etc.
The following work has been performed for climate change current and future
• Guidance on climate change and Sea level Rise• Guidance on Climate resilient slope management• Climate Change Analysis with guidance for incorporating climate change to develop climate resilient infrastructure• Climate Change Notes for Appraisal Reports on Regional Basis•Developed Training modules for training of the Engineers and relevant stakeholders in English and Bangla
Overview of Climate Baseline for the study area
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Tem
pera
ture
( o C
)
0
1
2
3
Sta
ndar
d de
viat
ion
(o C
)
Mean TmaxMean TminSD TmaxSD Tmin
0
100
200
300
400
500
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Rainfall(mm)
S.D.
CV%
Current Trends of Tmax and Tmin (C/Decade): Barisal (Upper) & Khulna (lower)
Station WinterPre-
monsoon MonsoonPost-
moonsoon AnnualTmin Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin Tmax
Barisal -0.15 0.05 0 0.02 -0.01 0.13 -0.04 0.24 -0.05 0.11Bhola 0.14 0.05 0.25 0.01 0.21 0.24 0.15 0.26 0.19 0.16
Patuakh 0.24 0.17 0.03 0.38 0.06 0.42 0.02 0.14 -0.03 0.28
Khepup -0.1 -0.01 0.16 0.26 0.24 0.12 -0.05 0.11 0.06 0.012
Station Winter Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-
monsoon Annual
KhulnaTmin -0.11 0.01 0.03 0.1 0
Tmax -0.15 0 0.2 0.21 0.06
SatkhiraTmin 0.08 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.09
Tmax -0.04 -0.03 0.15 0.19 0.06
MonglaTmin -0.03 0.18 0.09 0.05 0.07
Tmax 0.29 0.62 0.26 0.51 0.42
Station Winter Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-monsoon Annual
Barisal (1965-2011) -3.13 -7.69 -64.82 5.93 -15.87
Bhola (1966-2010 -5.63 -15.13 -64.89 6.46 -80.55Patuakhali (1984-
2011) -1.34 -2.01 138.5 23.79 146.7Khepupara (1972-
2011) 0.45 1.54 77.51 40.28 119.1
Sea Level Rise+land
subsidence at 1977-1998 (22
years)
4-6 cm/Decade
The trends of annual rainfall (mm/decade) and sea level rise (cm/decade) for Barisal region
Rainfall
Winter Pre-monsoon
Monsoon Post-monsoon Annual
mm/decad
e
% per decad
e
mm/decad
e
%per decad
e
mm/decade
% per decade mm/
decade
% per decade
mm/decad
e
% per decad
eKhulna 4.5 11.4 3.1 1.1 31.0 2.5 6.0 3.3 44.0 2.5
Satkhira 6.4 15.3 11.1 4.3 24.8 2.1 -3.0 -0.2 39.0 2.3Mongla -25.1 -64.7 -42.5 -15.3 132.3 9.4 18.0 8.2 83.0 4.3
Sea Level
Rise at Hiron Point
4 cm/decade
Khulna Region
Parameters DJF MAM JJA SON Annual
Temperature 1.64 1.50 1.53 1.86 1.75Rainfall (%) 3.4 4.3 6.3 -2.0 3.2
Sea level Rise+ Land Subsidence
in the south-central coastal
47 cm
Climate Change Scenario for 20150For Barisal Region
Parameters DJF MAM JJA SON AnnualTemperature 2.33 1.91 1.71 2.0 2.33Rainfall (%) -7.4 14.6 10.2 9.5 5.6Sea level
Rise+ Land Subsidence in
the south-central coastal
47 cm
Climate Projection in Khulna Region
Performed work on Climate model
• Research on best fit model has been done on the three districts namely Khulna, Patuakhali, Satkhira.
• After proper calibration and validation of two downscaling models SDSM and LARS-WG, LARS-WG was found to be best suited for the study area for future prediction of rainfall.
• Future prediction on rainfall has been done for the time period 2020’s
• Several field visits to water logged area in Satkhira and Khulna district have been made to survey the baseline condition of the area.
Winter Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-monsoon
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
KhulnaPatuakhaliSatkhira
Perc
enta
ge C
hnge
(mm
)
Seasonal percentage Change from baseline to 2020’s by LARS-WG
Climate Issues and General Adaptation OptionsClimate Issues General Adaptation OptionsIncrease of temperature
Take appropriate measures to meet enhanced water demand due to higher evaporation
Sea level rise, storm and surges, enhanced temperature, monsoon flooding and water logging and enhanced salinity
Increased Quality Control on construction Using suitable materials Raising the level of the road Minor road realignmlassent Increasing maintenance effectiveness Including additional longitudinal and transverse
drainage systems Improved cross drainage
Increase in precipitation
Additional drainage capacity Protection of earthworks and road slopes against
direct rain and wave impact. The plantation of suitable grass, shrubs and plants are suggested.
Increase water capture and storage system
Climate Issues General Adaptation OptionsIncrease in wind strength
Appropriate wind-risk vegetation on road verges Modifying the design of supports and anchorages
for buildingsClimate Mitigation Increase plantation for improving ecological
balance and livelihood development. The renewable energy sources should be
deployed. Improved waste management
Water supply and sanitation
The growth Centers should have adequate water-supply and sanitation arrangements.
Increase rain water harvesting and storage system
Future Plan of Work on Climate Resilience• Prepare climate scenarios of higher resolution preferably on District basis • Further research of climate resilience• Generate information on old and indigenous way of adaptation; current technologies and new ways of adaptation; Community based adaptations; • Incorporation of Gender and Livelihood aspects in climate change• Study other climate Resilient projects and adaptation policies and options followed in those projects
• Prepare 60 years cyclone impact history; Damage Assessment of a few recent cyclones and prepare zones describing the areas with different damage levels.
•Preparation of Future Projections of Tropical Cyclone intensity for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100 based on Sea Surface Temperatures
• Assess the achieved Resilience:o Assess the impact of intervention of climate change; o Preparation of monitoring sheet /tools for this purpose
• Climate Change Knowledge Management
Future work plan on climate modeling
• Completion of the current work to finish the prediction of future rainfall in the project area .
• Selection of pilot projects to survey the baseline for the climate change scenario.
• Prediction of flood level and terrain modeling of the project area.
• Preparation of inundated area for baseline survey. • Modeling of future inundation and preparation of
flood risk map with future prediction.
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