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Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 1
Using the American Community Surveyfor Dynamic Populations
Dr. Richard RathgePolicy Analyst
North Dakota Kids CountNorth Dakota State University
Kids Count Data Workshop
San Antonio, TX
March 1, 2012
Issues to be Highlighted:
1. ACS data challenges for small and/or dynamic populations
2. New Census initiative that may be helpful in addressing ACS data limitations
2Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012
3
42%
92%
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 4
23% of all U.S. counties49% are Great Plains counties
5
ACS Data Availability by Dataset
RSA Boundaries
Dunn
Ward
Cass
Grant
McLeanMcKenzie
MortonStark
Williams
Stutsman
Wells
Kidder
McHenry
Slope
Barnes
Mountrail
Divide
Walsh
Burleigh
Sioux
Burke
Benson
CavalierBottineau
Traill
Emmons
Pierce
Dickey
Richland
Logan
Billings
Mercer
Ramsey
Nelson
Adams
Towner
Bowman
Rolette
LaMoure
Eddy
Pembina
Hettinger
Oliver
Grand Forks
SteeleSheridan
Renville
SargentMcIntosh
Griggs
Ransom
Foster
GoldenValley
1 - Year ACS estimates3 - Year ACS estimates5 - Year ACS estimates
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012
85% of countieshave a population base under 10,000(55% below 5,000)
5-year ACS data is limited in capturing rapid population shifts limiting policy makers’ options for monitoring changing characteristics.
Small population base creates reliability issues.
Overlapping time periods restricts comparison of 5-year ACS data on annual basis.
Disclosure issues limited type and amount of ACS data that can be explored.
PUMA data has regional and urban influence bias.
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 6
ACS challenges for small and dynamic population
Illustration of limitations of ACS Data for dynamic populations
Thanks to Jerry Deichert for data
Omaha city was an ACS test sites: 1997-2004◦ Can examine 1, 3, 5-year data
7Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012
Nebraska ACS Data
8Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012
9Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012
19521955195819611964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160Millions of Barrels
10
Crude Oil Productionin North Dakota: 1952 to 2011
ND Ranking in oil production9th in 20066th in 2008 4th in 20093rd in 2012 (tied with California)(only behind Texas Alaska)
12,750 worked in the oil patch in 2010 compared to 2,000 in 2007
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012
2,500 capacity “crew camp” authorized in 2011 with est. 19,000 workers in oil patch.
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 11
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 12
Population Change: 2002 to 2003
Dunn
Ward
Cass
McKenzie
McLean
Grant
Stark Morton
Stutsman
Williams
Wells
BarnesKidder
Slope
McHenry
Sioux
Walsh
Divide
Burleigh
Mountrail
Burke
Benson
Emmons
Pierce
Bottineau Cavalier
Traill
Dickey
Ramsey
Richland
Billings
Logan
Mercer
Adams
Nelson
TownerRolette
Bowman
Eddy
LaMoure
Pembina
Hettinger
Steele
Oliver
Renville
Sheridan
Grand Forks
SargentMcIntosh
Ransom
Foster Griggs
Golden Valley
LossNo ChangeGain
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 13
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 14
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 15
Population Change: 2008 to 2009
Dunn
Ward
Cass
Grant
McLean
McKenzie
MortonStark
Williams
Stutsman
Wells
Kidder
McHenry
Slope
Barnes
Mountrail
Divide
Walsh
Burleigh
Sioux
Burke
Benson
CavalierBottineau
Traill
Emmons
Pierce
Dickey
Richland
Logan
Billings
Mercer
Ramsey
Nelson
Adams
Towner
Bowman
Rolette
LaMoure
Eddy
Pembina
Hettinger
Oliver
Grand Forks
Steele
Sheridan
Renville
SargentMcIntosh
Griggs
Ransom
Foster
GoldenValley
Loss or No ChangeIncrease: 0.1% to 1.1%Increase: 1.2% to 3.6%
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 16
View of Energy Development Activity inthe Bakken Oil Formation, Western ND
Stretching an Estimated 200,00 Square Miles
Source: Video from International Space Station
Issues to be Highlighted:
1. ACS data challenges for small and/or dynamic populations
2. New Census initiative that may be helpful in addressing ACS data limitations
17Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012
ACS PUMA MapAmerican Community Survey Public Use Micro Data Area (PUMA) 5% Sample Map for North Dakota (population threshold 100,000)
Fargo
Grand Forks
Bismarck
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 18
Mandan
Rural Statistical Areas Joint Project
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 19
Proposed ACS PUMA MapACS Proposed Rural Statistical Area Map for North Dakota
Grand Forks
Cass
Bismarck
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 20
21
North Dakota’s RSA & ACS Boundaries
RSA Boundaries
Dunn
Ward
Cass
Grant
McLeanMcKenzie
MortonStark
Williams
Stutsman
Wells
Kidder
McHenry
Slope
Barnes
Mountrail
Divide
Walsh
Burleigh
Sioux
Burke
Benson
CavalierBottineau
Traill
Emmons
Pierce
Dickey
Richland
Logan
Billings
Mercer
Ramsey
Nelson
Adams
Towner
Bowman
Rolette
LaMoure
Eddy
Pembina
Hettinger
Oliver
Grand Forks
SteeleSheridan
Renville
SargentMcIntosh
Griggs
Ransom
Foster
GoldenValley
1 - Year ACS estimates3 - Year ACS estimates5 - Year ACS estimates
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 22
Median Age, 2005-2009 ACS
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 23
Median Age, 2008 ACS
Median Age in Years28.7 to 31.636.0 to 36.242.244.0 to 44.9
##
##
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
Minot
FargoMandan
Wahpeton
Bismarck
Williston
JamestownDickinson West Fargo
Devils Lake
Grand Forks
Valley City
Dunn
Ward
Cass
Grant
McLeanMcKenzie
MortonStark
Williams
Stutsman
Wells
Kidder
McHenry
Slope
Barnes
Mountrail
Divide
Walsh
Burleigh
Sioux
Burke
Benson
CavalierBottineau
Traill
Emmons
Pierce
Dickey
RichlandLogan
Billings
Mercer
Ramsey
Nelson
Adams
Towner
Bowman
Rolette
LaMoure
Eddy
Pembina
Hettinger
Oliver
Grand Forks
SteeleSheridan
Renville
SargentMcIntosh
Griggs
Ransom
Foster
GoldenValley
RSA 4115
RSA 4112
RSA 4114
RSA 4113
RSA 4117
RSA 4116
RSA 4118
24
Young Adults Ages 25 to 34
Dunn
Ward
Cass
McKenzieMcLean
Grant
Stark
Morton
Stutsman
Williams
Wells
BarnesKidder
Slope
McHenry
Sioux
Walsh
Divide
Burleigh
Mountrail
Burke
Benson
Emmons
Pierce
Bottineau Cavalier
Traill
Dickey
Ramsey
Richland
Billings
Logan
Mercer
Adams
Towner
Nelson
Rolette
Bowman
Eddy
LaMoure
Pembina
Hettinger
Steele
Oliver
Renville
Sheridan
Grand Forks
SargentMcIntosh
Ransom
Foster Griggs
GoldenValley
Percent Change in the Population of Persons Ages 25 to 34 in North Dakota by County: 2000 to 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Census
Decrease: -16.5% to -36.5%Decrease: -0.1% to -16.4%No Change or Increase: 0% to 42.4%Increase: 42.5% to 69.9%
North Dakota = 17.7% increase
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc 25
Young Children Ages 0 to 4
North Dakota = 13.2% increaseDecrease: -10.5% to -26.6%Decrease: -0.1% to -10.4%Increase: 0.1% to 19.9%Increase: 20.0% to 42.9%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 CensusPercent Change in the Population of Persons Ages 0 to 4 in North Dakota by County: 2000 to 2010
Dunn
Ward
Cass
Grant
McLeanMcKenzie
MortonStark
Williams
Stutsman
Wells
Kidder
McHenry
Slope
Barnes
Mountrail
Divide
Walsh
Burleigh
Sioux
Burke
Benson
CavalierBottineau
Traill
Emmons
Pierce
Dickey
Richland
Logan
Billings
Mercer
Ramsey
Nelson
Adams
Towner
Bowman
Rolette
LaMoure
Eddy
Pembina
Hettinger
Oliver
Grand Forks
Steele
Sheridan
Renville
SargentMcIntosh
Griggs
Ransom
Foster
GoldenValley
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 26
Median Gross Rent, 2005-2009 ACS
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 27
Median Gross Rent, 2008 ACS
Median Gross Rent$429 to $436$467$530 to $583$631
##
##
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
Dunn
Ward
Cass
Grant
McLeanMcKenzie
MortonStark
Williams
Stutsman
Wells
Kidder
McHenry
Slope
Barnes
Mountrail
Divide
Walsh
Burleigh
Sioux
Burke
Benson
CavalierBottineau
Traill
Emmons
Pierce
Dickey
RichlandLogan
Billings
Mercer
Ramsey
Nelson
Adams
Towner
Bowman
Rolette
LaMoure
Eddy
Pembina
Hettinger
Oliver
Grand Forks
SteeleSheridan
Renville
SargentMcIntosh
Griggs
Ransom
Foster
GoldenValley
RSA 4115
RSA 4112
RSA 4114
RSA 4113
RSA 4117
RSA 4116
RSA 4118
Minot
FargoMandan
Wahpeton
Bismarck
Williston
JamestownDickinson West Fargo
Devils Lake
Grand Forks
Valley City
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 28
College Educated, 2005-2009 ACS
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 29
College Educated, 2008 ACS
##
##
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
Dunn
Ward
Cass
Grant
McLeanMcKenzie
MortonStark
Williams
Stutsman
Wells
Kidder
McHenry
Slope
Barnes
Mountrail
Divide
Walsh
Burleigh
Sioux
Burke
Benson
CavalierBottineau
Traill
Emmons
Pierce
Dickey
RichlandLogan
Billings
Mercer
Ramsey
Nelson
Adams
Towner
Bowman
Rolette
LaMoure
Eddy
Pembina
Hettinger
Oliver
Grand Forks
SteeleSheridan
Renville
SargentMcIntosh
Griggs
Ransom
Foster
GoldenValley
RSA 4115
RSA 4112
RSA 4114
RSA 4113
RSA 4117
RSA 4116
RSA 4118
Minot
FargoMandan
Wahpeton
Bismarck
Williston
JamestownDickinson West Fargo
Devils Lake
Grand Forks
Valley City
Percent with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher
18.8% to 20.5%24.5%34.0%36.1% to 36.2%
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 30
Movers in Past Year, 2008
##
##
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
Dunn
Ward
Cass
Grant
McLeanMcKenzie
MortonStark
Williams
Stutsman
Wells
Kidder
McHenry
Slope
Barnes
Mountrail
Divide
Walsh
Burleigh
Sioux
Burke
Benson
CavalierBottineau
Traill
Emmons
Pierce
Dickey
RichlandLogan
Billings
Mercer
Ramsey
Nelson
Adams
Towner
Bowman
Rolette
LaMoure
Eddy
Pembina
Hettinger
Oliver
Grand Forks
SteeleSheridan
Renville
SargentMcIntosh
Griggs
Ransom
Foster
GoldenValley
RSA 4115
RSA 4112
RSA 4114
RSA 4113
RSA 4117
RSA 4116
RSA 4118
Minot
FargoMandan
Wahpeton
Bismarck
Williston
JamestownDickinson West Fargo
Devils Lake
Grand Forks
Valley City
Percent who lived in a different house one year ago
10.1%11.6% each16.0% to 18.7%20.6% to 23.0%
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 31
Median Household Income, 2005-2009 ACSMOE 46,953 =/+- 4,226
MOE 49,013 =/+- 7,292
MOE 46,821 =/+- 5,620
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 32
Median Household Income, 2008 ACS
##
##
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
Dunn
Ward
Cass
Grant
McLeanMcKenzie
MortonStark
Williams
Stutsman
Wells
Kidder
McHenry
Slope
Barnes
Mountrail
Divide
Walsh
Burleigh
Sioux
Burke
Benson
CavalierBottineau
Traill
Emmons
Pierce
Dickey
RichlandLogan
Billings
Mercer
Ramsey
Nelson
Adams
Towner
Bowman
Rolette
LaMoure
Eddy
Pembina
Hettinger
Oliver
Grand Forks
SteeleSheridan
Renville
SargentMcIntosh
Griggs
Ransom
Foster
GoldenValley
RSA 4115
RSA 4112
RSA 4114
RSA 4113
RSA 4117
RSA 4116
RSA 4118
Minot
FargoMandan
Wahpeton
Bismarck
Williston
JamestownDickinson West Fargo
Devils Lake
Grand Forks
Valley City
Median Household Income$40,974$42,581$45,715 to $48,145$53,575
Suggestions for Exploring Alternatives
Need to partner with other data providers in exploring alternative data sets.
Examine ways to triangulate data for small jurisdictions to ensure confidence in our interpretations.
Explore innovative ways of combining geographic units within Census to increase unit size.
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 33
34
ACS Presentation 2012 Dr. Richard Rathge, Policy Analyst
North Dakota KIDS COUNTNorth Dakota State UniversityIACC 424, Dept. 8000, PO Box 6050Fargo, ND 58108-6050Richard.Rathge@ndsu.eduPhone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-9730URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc
Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012
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