Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 1 Using the American Community Survey for Dynamic Populations Dr. Richard Rathge Policy Analyst North Dakota

Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 1

Using the American Community Surveyfor Dynamic Populations

Dr. Richard RathgePolicy Analyst

North Dakota Kids CountNorth Dakota State University

Kids Count Data Workshop

San Antonio, TX

March 1, 2012

Issues to be Highlighted:

1. ACS data challenges for small and/or dynamic populations

2. New Census initiative that may be helpful in addressing ACS data limitations

2Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012

3

42%

92%

Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012


23% of all U.S. counties49% are Great Plains counties

5

ACS Data Availability by Dataset

RSA Boundaries

Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

Richland

Logan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

SteeleSheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley

1 - Year ACS estimates3 - Year ACS estimates5 - Year ACS estimates


85% of countieshave a population base under 10,000(55% below 5,000)

5-year ACS data is limited in capturing rapid population shifts limiting policy makers’ options for monitoring changing characteristics.

Small population base creates reliability issues.

Overlapping time periods restricts comparison of 5-year ACS data on annual basis.

Disclosure issues limited type and amount of ACS data that can be explored.

PUMA data has regional and urban influence bias.


ACS challenges for small and dynamic population

Illustration of limitations of ACS Data for dynamic populations

Thanks to Jerry Deichert for data

Omaha city was an ACS test sites: 1997-2004◦ Can examine 1, 3, 5-year data


Nebraska ACS Data



19521955195819611964196719701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160Millions of Barrels

10

Crude Oil Productionin North Dakota: 1952 to 2011

ND Ranking in oil production9th in 20066th in 2008 4th in 20093rd in 2012 (tied with California)(only behind Texas Alaska)

12,750 worked in the oil patch in 2010 compared to 2,000 in 2007


2,500 capacity “crew camp” authorized in 2011 with est. 19,000 workers in oil patch.



Population Change: 2002 to 2003

Dunn

Ward

Cass

McKenzie

McLean

Grant

Stark Morton

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

BarnesKidder

Slope

McHenry

Sioux

Walsh

Divide

Burleigh

Mountrail

Burke

Benson

Emmons

Pierce

Bottineau Cavalier

Traill

Dickey

Ramsey

Richland

Billings

Logan

Mercer

Adams

Nelson

TownerRolette

Bowman

Eddy

LaMoure

Pembina

Hettinger

Steele

Oliver

Renville

Sheridan

Grand Forks

SargentMcIntosh

Ransom

Foster Griggs

Golden Valley

LossNo ChangeGain




Population Change: 2008 to 2009

Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLean

McKenzie

MortonStark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

Richland

Logan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

Steele

Sheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley

Loss or No ChangeIncrease: 0.1% to 1.1%Increase: 1.2% to 3.6%


View of Energy Development Activity inthe Bakken Oil Formation, Western ND

Stretching an Estimated 200,00 Square Miles

Source: Video from International Space Station

Issues to be Highlighted:

1. ACS data challenges for small and/or dynamic populations

2. New Census initiative that may be helpful in addressing ACS data limitations


ACS PUMA MapAmerican Community Survey Public Use Micro Data Area (PUMA) 5% Sample Map for North Dakota (population threshold 100,000)

Fargo

Grand Forks

Bismarck


Mandan

Rural Statistical Areas Joint Project


Proposed ACS PUMA MapACS Proposed Rural Statistical Area Map for North Dakota

Grand Forks

Cass

Bismarck


21

North Dakota’s RSA & ACS Boundaries

RSA Boundaries

Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

Richland

Logan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

SteeleSheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley

1 - Year ACS estimates3 - Year ACS estimates5 - Year ACS estimates



Median Age, 2005-2009 ACS


Median Age, 2008 ACS

Median Age in Years28.7 to 31.636.0 to 36.242.244.0 to 44.9

##

##

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

Minot

FargoMandan

Wahpeton

Bismarck

Williston

JamestownDickinson West Fargo

Devils Lake

Grand Forks

Valley City

Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

RichlandLogan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

SteeleSheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley

RSA 4115

RSA 4112

RSA 4114

RSA 4113

RSA 4117

RSA 4116

RSA 4118

24

Young Adults Ages 25 to 34

Dunn

Ward

Cass

McKenzieMcLean

Grant

Stark

Morton

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

BarnesKidder

Slope

McHenry

Sioux

Walsh

Divide

Burleigh

Mountrail

Burke

Benson

Emmons

Pierce

Bottineau Cavalier

Traill

Dickey

Ramsey

Richland

Billings

Logan

Mercer

Adams

Towner

Nelson

Rolette

Bowman

Eddy

LaMoure

Pembina

Hettinger

Steele

Oliver

Renville

Sheridan

Grand Forks

SargentMcIntosh

Ransom

Foster Griggs

GoldenValley

Percent Change in the Population of Persons Ages 25 to 34 in North Dakota by County: 2000 to 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Census

Decrease: -16.5% to -36.5%Decrease: -0.1% to -16.4%No Change or Increase: 0% to 42.4%Increase: 42.5% to 69.9%

North Dakota = 17.7% increase

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc 25

Young Children Ages 0 to 4

North Dakota = 13.2% increaseDecrease: -10.5% to -26.6%Decrease: -0.1% to -10.4%Increase: 0.1% to 19.9%Increase: 20.0% to 42.9%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 CensusPercent Change in the Population of Persons Ages 0 to 4 in North Dakota by County: 2000 to 2010

Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

Richland

Logan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

Steele

Sheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley


Median Gross Rent, 2005-2009 ACS


Median Gross Rent, 2008 ACS

Median Gross Rent$429 to $436$467$530 to $583$631

##

##

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

RichlandLogan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

SteeleSheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley

RSA 4115

RSA 4112

RSA 4114

RSA 4113

RSA 4117

RSA 4116

RSA 4118

Minot

FargoMandan

Wahpeton

Bismarck

Williston


Devils Lake

Grand Forks

Valley City


College Educated, 2005-2009 ACS


College Educated, 2008 ACS

##

##

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

RichlandLogan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

SteeleSheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley

RSA 4115

RSA 4112

RSA 4114

RSA 4113

RSA 4117

RSA 4116

RSA 4118

Minot

FargoMandan

Wahpeton

Bismarck

Williston


Devils Lake

Grand Forks

Valley City

Percent with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher

18.8% to 20.5%24.5%34.0%36.1% to 36.2%


Movers in Past Year, 2008

##

##

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

RichlandLogan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

SteeleSheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley

RSA 4115

RSA 4112

RSA 4114

RSA 4113

RSA 4117

RSA 4116

RSA 4118

Minot

FargoMandan

Wahpeton

Bismarck

Williston


Devils Lake

Grand Forks

Valley City

Percent who lived in a different house one year ago

10.1%11.6% each16.0% to 18.7%20.6% to 23.0%


Median Household Income, 2005-2009 ACSMOE 46,953 =/+- 4,226

MOE 49,013 =/+- 7,292

MOE 46,821 =/+- 5,620


Median Household Income, 2008 ACS

##

##

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

Dunn

Ward

Cass

Grant

McLeanMcKenzie

MortonStark

Williams

Stutsman

Wells

Kidder

McHenry

Slope

Barnes

Mountrail

Divide

Walsh

Burleigh

Sioux

Burke

Benson

CavalierBottineau

Traill

Emmons

Pierce

Dickey

RichlandLogan

Billings

Mercer

Ramsey

Nelson

Adams

Towner

Bowman

Rolette

LaMoure

Eddy

Pembina

Hettinger

Oliver

Grand Forks

SteeleSheridan

Renville

SargentMcIntosh

Griggs

Ransom

Foster

GoldenValley

RSA 4115

RSA 4112

RSA 4114

RSA 4113

RSA 4117

RSA 4116

RSA 4118

Minot

FargoMandan

Wahpeton

Bismarck

Williston


Devils Lake

Grand Forks

Valley City

Median Household Income$40,974$42,581$45,715 to $48,145$53,575

Suggestions for Exploring Alternatives

Need to partner with other data providers in exploring alternative data sets.

Examine ways to triangulate data for small jurisdictions to ensure confidence in our interpretations.

Explore innovative ways of combining geographic units within Census to increase unit size.


34

ACS Presentation 2012 Dr. Richard Rathge, Policy Analyst

North Dakota KIDS COUNTNorth Dakota State UniversityIACC 424, Dept. 8000, PO Box 6050Fargo, ND [email protected]: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-9730URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc


mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Prepared by North Dakota KIDS COUNT, March 2012 1 Using the American Community Survey for Dynamic Populations Dr. Richard Rathge Policy Analyst North Dakota