Predicting the Unpredictable - The FCC and the Future of Telecommunications and the Internet David...

Predicting the Unpredictable - The FCC and the Future of

Telecommunications and the Internet

David J. Farber

Alfred Fitler Moore Professor of Telecommunication

University of Pennsylvania

And

Co-Director of the Penn Initiative for

Markets, Technology and Policy

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The FCC

• What is the structure of the FCC– The Former Chairman

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The Staff

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How are decisions made

• The FCC is directed by five Commissioners appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate for 5-year terms, except when filling an unexpired term. The President designates one of the Commissioners to serve as Chairperson. Only three Commissioners may be members of the same political party. None of them can have a financial interest in any Commission-related business.

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The “new” era

• The new Chairman of the Commission– Mike Powell

• What are the critical issues they face– Spectrum , spectrum,

spectrum

– Unbundling

– Economic relationships

– The internet!!

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Politics 101

• USA – Will the internet escape regulation– The reality of inside the beltway– Security and privacy may be the

wedge– The legacy businesses -- will they

“give up”

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We Are at the Beginning of a Great Change

• The next 10 years will be as wild as the last 25

• Technology will change dramatically– All optical nets– Wireless of many varieties– Communicating computers

everywhere

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The Real Next Generation -- Optical Networks

• Implications– Protocols IP?– Processor architecture– Software systems

• Will it be a fully distributed system -- back to the past

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Likely Future (2) • Megabits to the home and in the home

– XDSL, – Cable, – Wireless– Fastweb

• A challenge to the establishment -- the carriers

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Broadband Access

• Will it be open?• What does that really mean• Why worry

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Mobility

• Next generation– 3g

• Claims lots of new services• Good data rates but at what cost• Spectrum!! And costs

– Bluetooth, 802.11 and the like• How long can it exist in the chaos of unlicensed space• Should the FCC establish room for semi-licensed

– The Electronic Bill of Rights for Radios

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Security and Availability Will Be the Drivers

• The current internet is vulnerable• Points of potential vulnerability

– Service protocols– Commercial arrangements– Old software– Hard to design security in after the fact

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Technology Is Easy -- Society Is Rough

• Show stoppers or at least slowers

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The Next* Generation Internet -- Citizens

• We are at a cross road• It could evolve to a TV structure for the

citizens– Limited program availability -- just more TV and

shopping– It could be Snowcrash

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Digital Divide• Will we be two

nations?• Will we be two

worlds?• How and why

must we bridge the gap

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Nation States

• Taxes• Culture• Rights

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Individuals• Privacy• 1984 fears

– Big government – Big brother– Big business