Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (TISO)

Xiouhua (Joshua) Fu

International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Collaborators: Bin Wang, Bo Yang, Qing Bao

NOAA 32nd CDPW, Tallahassee, Oct 22-26, 2007

Global Impacts of TISO

The TISO

Boreal-winter MJO

Boreal-summer ISO

Eastward

Intra-Seasonal Variability

Signal CPL Forecast Error

[ATM: 17 days; CPL: 24 days]Fu and Wang et al. 2007, JAS

Air-sea Coupling Extends the Predictability of TISO

ATM Forecast Error

+Wang and Xie (1998)

Air-Sea Coupling Processes

Specific Questions to be Addressed

How will different surface boundary conditions (five different SST settings) affect the TISO predictability (with “perfect” model assumption)? What are the best SST configurations for TISO hindcasts and operational forecasts? What is the “practical” predictability of TISO in a dynamical model (IPRC_HcGCM)?

Fu et al. (2007), MWR, In press

IPRC/UH Hybrid coupled GCM (IPRC_HcGCM)

Atmospheric component: ECHAM-4 T30L19 AGCM (Roeckner et al. 1996) Ocean component: Wang-Li-Fu intermediate upper ocean model (0.5ox0.5o) (Wang et al. 1995; Fu and Wang 2001)

Wang, Li, and Chang (1995): upper-ocean thermodynamics McCreary and Yu (1992): upper-ocean dynamics Jin (1997) : mean and ENSO (intermediate fully coupled model) Zebiak and Cane (1987): ENSO (intermediate anomaly coupled model)

Fully coupling without heat flux correction Coupling region: Tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (30oS-30oN) Coupling interval: Once per dayFu et al. 2003; Fu and Wang 2004 (TISO)

Ensemble ExperimentsWith Five Different SST Settings

Experiment Name

SSTs Used in 90-day Forecasts

CPL SST directly forecasted by interactive air-sea coupling (Tier-one)

ATM Daily SST from the coupled control run after removing 20-90-day variability ( “smoothed” SST)

ATMp Daily SST from the coupled control run is linearly interpolated to the “smoothed” SST within first 10-day forecast (damped persistent SST)

ATMf Daily SST anomaly from coupling to a slab mixed-layer ocean (ML depth = 30 m) is added to the “smoothed” SST

ATMd Ensemble-mean daily SST from the CPL forecasts (Tier-two)

Experimental Design 2 TISO events (boreal-summer) in a coupled control run (Targets) 4 phases for each TISO event (Starting points) 10 ensemble forecasts starting from each phase of selected events under five different SST settings (80 forecasts per SST setting)

Data Processing TISO: 20-90-day filtered daily rainfall

Boreal-summer Rainfall over (65oE-120oE)

Targets

Coupled Forecasts (CPL)

Atmosphere-only Forecasts (ATM)

Ten-ensemble-mean

Event-I Event-II

Ensemble means

ATM/ATMp: 30 days CPL/ATMd: 42 days

TISO Predictability Measured by ACC

(Tier-1/Tier-2)

An MJO event observed during TOGA-COARE1993, Jan. 01-Feb. 10 (boreal-winter)

A monsoon ISO event2006, Jun. 11-Jul. 11 (boreal-summer)

Initialized with NCEP reanalysis 100-ensemble forecasts for each event

TISO Forecast Experiments with IPRC_HcGCM

OLRU-850VP-200

MJO Events Observed during TOGA-COARE

Vitart et al. (2007)

VP-200Vitart et al. (2007)

Dec. 31,1992

Feb. 1,1993

MJO Forecasted by ECMWF Operational Seasonal Forecast System

Rainfall

MJO Forecasted by the IPRC_HcGCM

Observation With default cumulus scheme

With revised cumulus scheme

(U850 -U200)

Atmosphere-only Forecast With revised cumulus scheme

An Experimental Forecast of Monsoon ISO

Boreal-summer Rainfall over (65oE-120oE)

Summary

The TISO predictability in IPRC/UH_HcGCM reaches about 40 days averaged over the Southeast Asia. The predictability in the atmosphere-only model is about 30 days. Interactive air-sea coupling extends the TISO predictability by about 10 days.

Tier-two system could reach similar TISO predictability as tier-one system, suggesting that using observed high-frequency SST for TISO hindcasts and using interactive air-sea coupling and forecasted daily SST for real-time forecasts are good options. The optimistic side of this TISO forecast experiment suggests that some current dynamical models are ready to carry out intraseasonal forecast and will provide useful information for extended weather forecast.

Thanks

Air-sea coupling enhances the northward propagating monsoon ISO (IPRC_HcGCM)

Fu et al. 2003, Fu and Wang 2004 (65oE-95oE)

Coupling also extends the predictability of weather

ATM/(Negative): 8 days CPL/(Positive): 16 days

ATM Forecast Error

CPL Forecast Error

Signal

(During break-to-active transition) NOAA 32nd CDPW, Tallahassee, Oct 22-26, 2007

Two Methods to Measure the Predictability Ratio of Signal- to- Forecast Error

Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC)

Forecast Time

Model Observation

Wheeler-Hendon Phase-space MJO Diagram

PC-1 PC-1

Filtered rainfall over (80oE–100oE, 5oS-5oN)

Phase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3

Phase 4 Fu et al. 2006, JAS

TISO Predictability Measured by Signal-to-Error Ratio

Signal

ATM Forecast Error

CPL Forecast Error

Individual ensembles

TISO Predictability Measured by ACC

Atmosphere only

Revised

Default

(Signal) L=25 days for TISO

(Forecast Error)

Control run Perturbed Forecasts

Signal-to-Error Method

Waliser et al. (2003)

SSTs in Five Experiments

Control

Coupled/Daily

Mixed-layer

Damped persistent

“Smoothed”

Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (TISO)

Documents

TISO BLACKSTAR GROUP SE - storage.googleapis.com · 2016 2015 % change Tiso Blackstar HO Acq finance 413 534 -23% Cash/(OD) 13 20 -34% TOTAL 400 514 -22% INTEREST COST 50 8 534% CAPITAL

INFORMATION THEORY AND DYNAMICAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY · INFORMATION THEORY AND DYNAMICAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY RICHARDKLEEMAN ... INFORMATION THEORY AND DYNAMICAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY

Streamflow Predictability

Tiso 1391 mountain skills leaflet 2015 v1

Slow oscillation, Fast oscillation, and its interactions

TISO - TORRICELLI 1991, The Tibetan Text of Tilopa’s Mahāmudropadeśa

LC Oscillation

Tiso Blackstar Groupstorage.googleapis.com/tiso_cosmos_files/Tiso Blackstar...Tiso Blackstar Group is a global company with its roots in Africa, operating market-leading media, broadcast

Oscillation Notes

Shobhit Jain, Paolo Tiso , Johannes B. Rutzmoser , …Shobhit Jain, Paolo Tiso , Johannes B. Rutzmoser y, Daniel J. Rixen June 25, 2018 Abstract This paper describes the use of a quadratic

“TiSO-PRODUCTION” LTD SERVO-OPERATED WAIST-HIGH TURNSTILE ... · “TiSO-PRODUCTION” LTD. SERVO-OPERATED WAIST-HIGH ... the swing gate type servo-operated waist-high turnstile

Flavour Oscillation and CP Violation Flavour Oscillation: Mixing

Sombroek, C., Renson, L., Tiso, P., & Kerschen, G. (2016 ...4 Cees Sombroek, Ludovic Renson, Paolo Tiso, Gaetan Kerschen a good reduction method is to ﬁnd a suitable ROB Y that is

Role of Air-Sea Interaction on the Predictability of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation (TISO) Xiouhua Fu International Pacific Research Center (IPRC)

Role of Air-Sea Interaction on the Predictability of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation (TISO)

TISCO BANK PLC · 2020-02-28 · TISCO Bank PLC TISO, formerly named “TISO Finance PL”, was established in 1969 as a finance company owned by ankers Trust New York Corporation

Tiso, Francis, Evagrius of Pontus and Buddhist Abidhamma

PREDICTING PREDICTABILITY

Tiso Blackstar Group - storage.googleapis.com blackstar... · and focus on building a modern and dynamic global media ... Tiso Blackstar Group | Investor ... Business Day Investor

Oscillation s