Political Culture and Democratization Preliminary thoughts for chapter 8 of Approaching Democracy:...

Political Culture and Democratization

Preliminary thoughts for chapter 8 of Approaching Democracy: Research Methods in Comparative Politics

Michael Coppedge

Relevant individual Attitudes: Diffuse vs. specific support,Confidence in institutions andLeaders, interpersonal trust, Tolerance, moderation

Relevant individual attitudes

Determinants of attitudes:Age, education, income, ethnicity, religion, party, inequality, etc.

Relevant individual attitudes

Determinants of attitudes

Individual participation:Voting, contacting, donatingPetitioning, demonstrating, Striking, violence

Relevant individual attitudes

Determinants of attitudes

Individual participation

Collective identities:Nationality, ethnicityReligion, tribe, class,Party…

Relevant individual attitudes

Determinants of attitudes

Individual participation

Collective identities

Elite orientations:Ideology, programs,Moderation, ambitions Polarization

Relevant individual attitudes

Determinants of attitudes

Individual participation

Collective identities

Elite orientations

Policies

Relevant individual attitudes

Determinants of attitudes

Individual participation

Collective identities

Elite orientations

Policies

The regime:Level, change,longevity

Relevant individual attitudes

Determinants of attitudes

Individual participation

Collective identities

Elite orientations

PoliciesRegime

InstitutionsAndProcesses

Forms of direct action by row actor to replace column actor

Military Mass Executive Legisla-ture

Courts

Military Civil war Dirty war Military coup

Military coup

Military coup

Mass insurgency Civil war Election; protest; Uprising

Election; protest; Uprising

protest

Executive Manipula-tion of

promotions

Police action or repression

Resigna-tion

Presi-dential coup

Presi-dential coup

Legisla-ture

Impeach-ment

Courts Impeach-ment

If this actor takes direct action

Democratic

outcomes

Undemocratic

outcomes

Mass Failed or repressed uprising or insurgency; constitutional succession after successful uprising; resignation

Unconstitutional succession after uprising or insurgency; violence provokes excessive repression, coup, or civil war

Executive Failed presidential coup; constitutional dissolution; resignation

Successful presidential coup; excessive repression

Military Repression, dirty war, military coup, back presidential coup, civil war

Legislature Impeachment, vote of no confidence

Courts Actions are constitutional by definition

Democracy In principle

The actual regime

institutions

leaders

policies

Complete independence

executive

congress

courts

military

Governmentperformance

Mass support for…

Complete independence: no change

Connected mass attitudes

Mass attitudes converge

Connected elite positions

Elite orientations converge

Bottom-up influence

Elite orientations converge to mass average

Top-down influence

Mass converges to elite average

…or to the most influential elite actor

More bottom-up than top-down

Elites converge to mass position faster than mass converges toward elite position

More top-down than bottom-up

Mass converges to elite average faster than elites converge toward mass average

Government performance affects mass support

Mass support trends in direction of exogenous performance

Government performance affects elite orientations

Elite orientations trend in direction of exogenous performance

Positive performance exogenous, all else endogenous

Eventually, all actors trend in the direction of steady positive performance because it’s exogenous

Negative performance exogenous, all else endogenous

Eventually, all actors trend in the direction of steady negative performance because it’s exogenous

Variable performance exogenous, all else endogenous

Without a steady trend, actors that are only indirectly influenced by performance may never converge with the others

Recap

• We should expect no strong relationship between mass attitudes toward democracy and regimes because– Other kinds of attitudes may matter more– Attitudes don’t matter unless they are

translated into action, even if indirectly– Their impact on regimes is necessarily

mediated– Snapshots and cross-sections can’t capture

the dynamic, endogenous relationships

Implications for research

• Test for associations between attitudes and more proximate outcomes on the pathways to regime change– Election of semiloyal leaders– Mass support for violent, direct action– Elite beliefs about mass reactions to moves that

create, preserve, or undermine democracy. How constrained do they feel?

• Measure mass & elite attitudes frequently• Test for convergences, controlling for exogenous

factors