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Political Culture and Democratization
Preliminary thoughts for chapter 8 of Approaching Democracy: Research Methods in Comparative Politics
Michael Coppedge
Relevant individual Attitudes: Diffuse vs. specific support,Confidence in institutions andLeaders, interpersonal trust, Tolerance, moderation
Relevant individual attitudes
Determinants of attitudes:Age, education, income, ethnicity, religion, party, inequality, etc.
Relevant individual attitudes
Determinants of attitudes
Individual participation:Voting, contacting, donatingPetitioning, demonstrating, Striking, violence
Relevant individual attitudes
Determinants of attitudes
Individual participation
Collective identities:Nationality, ethnicityReligion, tribe, class,Party…
Relevant individual attitudes
Determinants of attitudes
Individual participation
Collective identities
Elite orientations:Ideology, programs,Moderation, ambitions Polarization
Relevant individual attitudes
Determinants of attitudes
Individual participation
Collective identities
Elite orientations
Policies
Relevant individual attitudes
Determinants of attitudes
Individual participation
Collective identities
Elite orientations
Policies
The regime:Level, change,longevity
Relevant individual attitudes
Determinants of attitudes
Individual participation
Collective identities
Elite orientations
PoliciesRegime
InstitutionsAndProcesses
Forms of direct action by row actor to replace column actor
Military Mass Executive Legisla-ture
Courts
Military Civil war Dirty war Military coup
Military coup
Military coup
Mass insurgency Civil war Election; protest; Uprising
Election; protest; Uprising
protest
Executive Manipula-tion of
promotions
Police action or repression
Resigna-tion
Presi-dential coup
Presi-dential coup
Legisla-ture
Impeach-ment
Courts Impeach-ment
If this actor takes direct action
Democratic
outcomes
Undemocratic
outcomes
Mass Failed or repressed uprising or insurgency; constitutional succession after successful uprising; resignation
Unconstitutional succession after uprising or insurgency; violence provokes excessive repression, coup, or civil war
Executive Failed presidential coup; constitutional dissolution; resignation
Successful presidential coup; excessive repression
Military Repression, dirty war, military coup, back presidential coup, civil war
Legislature Impeachment, vote of no confidence
Courts Actions are constitutional by definition
Democracy In principle
The actual regime
institutions
leaders
policies
Complete independence
executive
congress
courts
military
Governmentperformance
Mass support for…
Complete independence: no change
Connected mass attitudes
Mass attitudes converge
Connected elite positions
Elite orientations converge
Bottom-up influence
Elite orientations converge to mass average
Top-down influence
Mass converges to elite average
…or to the most influential elite actor
More bottom-up than top-down
Elites converge to mass position faster than mass converges toward elite position
More top-down than bottom-up
Mass converges to elite average faster than elites converge toward mass average
Government performance affects mass support
Mass support trends in direction of exogenous performance
Government performance affects elite orientations
Elite orientations trend in direction of exogenous performance
Positive performance exogenous, all else endogenous
Eventually, all actors trend in the direction of steady positive performance because it’s exogenous
Negative performance exogenous, all else endogenous
Eventually, all actors trend in the direction of steady negative performance because it’s exogenous
Variable performance exogenous, all else endogenous
Without a steady trend, actors that are only indirectly influenced by performance may never converge with the others
Recap
• We should expect no strong relationship between mass attitudes toward democracy and regimes because– Other kinds of attitudes may matter more– Attitudes don’t matter unless they are
translated into action, even if indirectly– Their impact on regimes is necessarily
mediated– Snapshots and cross-sections can’t capture
the dynamic, endogenous relationships
Implications for research
• Test for associations between attitudes and more proximate outcomes on the pathways to regime change– Election of semiloyal leaders– Mass support for violent, direct action– Elite beliefs about mass reactions to moves that
create, preserve, or undermine democracy. How constrained do they feel?
• Measure mass & elite attitudes frequently• Test for convergences, controlling for exogenous
factors