Overview of Salinity Occurrence and Distribution in Biscayne Bay · 2016-10-16 · Biscayne Bay...

S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T

South Miami-Dade Water Issues Coordination:

Biscayne Bay

November 22, 2010

Overview of

Salinity Occurrence and

Distribution in Biscayne Bay

Additional contributors: Nenad Iricanin, Lucia Baldwin, Nikki Carlson

Melody Hunt

Lead Environmental Scientist

Restoration Sciences Department

Outline

I. Background

A. Peer Review (2008)

B. Overview Water Budget (2008)

II. Evaluation Objectives (2010)

A. Existing Monitoring

B. Data Representations

III. Approach (2010)

A. Salinity Patterns and Freshwater Signal

B. Updated Rainfall Analyses

C. Elevated and Hyper-Salinity

IV. Summary

Peer Review October 2008

Public workshop

Broad-scale assessment and summary of previous inflow studies:

hydrology

biological resources

Inflow - salinity - resource link needed for rule making

No salinity-sensitive resource identified on which to base Rule

Mass balance model and water budget 1965-2000

Adequacy of Technical

Information to Support

Minimum Inflow Needs for

BISCAYNE BAY

Water Supply

Department

October 14, 2008

Lagoonal Systems: Wetland /Tidal

Creek Transition Zone

Florida Bay Biscayne Bay

Biscayne Bay

Everglades supports large

transition salinity zone

between the fresh and

marine environment

Highly modified watershed -

Compressed transition salinity

zone is limited to mangrove

fringe and near-shore

Peer Review Comments

Existing Salinity Condition

Establish system

patterns, evaluate

east to west salinity

gradient

Hyper-salinity a key

concern

Where, when, or how

often does it occur?-

salinity observations

Mass balance tool

limitations - need

additional tool or

salinity observations

S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C TS O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T

Water Budget Tool (2008)

ECT, Sept. 2008: Bay-wide

water budget for 1965-2000

8 sub-regions

Components

Evaporation,

Rainfall; inflows- canal,

overland, groundwater

Fresh water displacement

Salinity predictions within

each sub-region

Biscayne Bay showing 8 sub-regions

Central

discharge, Q

Evaporation

Runoff

Rainfall

Net Freshwater Supply, Q

Evaporation Rainfall

, Exchange QX

Inflow from

canals and

rivers

Coastal Wetland

Groundwater

discharge, Q

Evaporation

Runoff

Rainfall

Net Freshwater Supply, Q

Evaporation Rainfall

, Exchange QX

Inflow from

canals and

rivers

Coastal Wetland

Groundwater

Source: ECT, 2008; Marshall, Nuttle, and Cosby

Net Supply of Freshwater = Rainfall - Evaporation + Canal

Flow + Un-Gauged Wetland Flow + Ground Water Inflow

Freshwater Budget

Connection to Salinity

In modified watersheds Inflows

also very sensitive to rainfall

Inflow Summary 1965-2000

CENTRAL

Canal: 413

Groundwater: 107

Overland:15

Canal: 2

Groundwater: 28

Overland: 51

Canal: 567

Groundwater: 32

Overland: NA

CENTRAL

Based on “Average Rainfall ” Year (1965-2000) 1000 acre-ft/year

Additional Feature

Freshwater Displacement

North: 2 months

Central: 26 months

South: 60 months

Water Budget Tool Limitations

Identified by Peer Review

Salinity prediction are underestimated at

high salinities

East-west salinity gradients not well

represented using 8 sub-regions

Additional Considerations

Salinity observations and climate did not

include current decade

Tool has been updated to 10 sub-regions

Outline

I. Background

II. Evaluation Objectives (2010)A. Existing Monitoring

A. Salinity Patterns and Freshwater Signal

IV. Summary

Evaluation Objectives 2010

1. Compile bay-wide salinity observations

from monitoring observations

2. Address fundamental salinity-related

questions

Secondary Questions

How often? Where? When?

Primary Questions

System patterns observed?

Hyper-salinity occurrences?

Existing Monitoring Programs

Monthly Grab Sampling:

Bay-wide, since 1979

Continuous Sampling:

Concentrated in Central and South

Regions; some co-located with

monthly sites, since 2004

Existing Monitoring

Evaluation Considerations

Multiple programs / objectives

Different data collection and reporting

protocols

Stations have records over different time

Station modifications & location changes

Non-uniform spatial representation

Incomplete database entry

Incomplete QA/QC

Data Representations

• Water year (May 1 - April 30)

• Data Summaries used updated 10 sub-regions

• Monthly Data Record 1988-2009: most consistent record available, 75 stations

• Continuous Data Record 2004-2008: available record, 35 stations

3 North

5 Central

2 South

Outline

I. Background

III. Approach (2010)A. Salinity Patterns and Freshwater Signal

IV. Summary

Approach: Overview of

Data Evaluation

Broad-scale analyses

High level summaries

Based on observations for whole system

Summarize bay-wide patterns and salinity

conditions over period of monitoring

record and within sub regions

Build upon Bay-wide water budget

information from 2008 effort

Approach: Outline of Steps

1) Create database for salinity using monitoring data

a) QA/QC

b) Queries/ tables for export to other software

2) Spatial representation – GIS mapping

3) Statistical analyses

4) Compile and create graphical summaries

5) Hydrologic information - supplemented existing water budget information to extend rainfall information consistent with period of salinity observation

Bay-Wide Salinity Patterns:

Summary Contour Maps

East-west salinity gradient in all

regions; both monthly and continuous

Regional Patterns

– Small areas of lower to intermediate

salinity conditions in near-shore central

and north regions

– All regions areas with salinities < less

marine

Percentile

Salinity

Percentile

Salinity

Salinity Contours (Water Years 2004 - 2008)

Continuous Monitoring

Percentile

Salinity

Salinity Contours (Water Years 1988 - 2009)

Monthly Monitoring

25th Percentile

Salinity

50th Percentile

Salinity

75th Percentile

Salinity

Bay-Wide Salinity Patterns:

Salinity Contour Maps (cont.)

Shows importance of bay-wide assessment and

the influence of freshwater inflow

Small areas within near-shore central and south

have lower salinity relative to other parts of Bay

Ecological implications

At the 50 percentile most of the south and north

regions are less than marine

Region differences attributed to combination of

Distribution and quantity of inflow

Freshwater displacement

South Central

Outerbay

South Central

Inshore

South Central

Midbay/Turkey Point

Inflow Signal:

Near-shore to

Outer Sub-Region

Continuous

Seasonal Salinity Pattern

Continuous data shows salinity

increase and decrease consistent

with seasonal (wet and dry) inflow

from near shore sub-region to

outermost sub-region

Seasonal freshwater inflow signal from

east to west

Outline

I. Background

IV. Summary

Rainfall Analyses: Importance

Integral component of water budget – Direct input

– Reflected in the inflow response of

watershed inputs

– Modified system with rapid inflow

responses from watershed - salinity is

sensitive rainfall variability and seasonal

variation

Rainfall Analyses: Objectives

Evaluate local patterns

– Long-term annual climatic variations

– Seasonal variation

– Establish classifications in years of salinity

observations

• dry

• average

• wet

Rainfall Analyses: Approach

– Water Year representations

– Extend rainfall data

• Encompass monitoring period to present

(existing water budget 1965 - 2000)

• Utilize long observation record (allows better

classifications for period of interest)

– Construct rainfall time series spanning

1914 - present

– Classify Years: Average, Dry, Wet

Annual Rainfall 1988 - 2009

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

Dry Season

Wet Season

1:10 Wet

1:5 Wet 1:5 Dry

1:10 Dry

Average

Inter-annual

and seasonal

variability

Average Range

48”- 66” /year

56” Mean

19151920

19251930

19351940

19451950

19551960

19651970

19751980

19851990

19952000

19151920

19251930

19351940

19451950

19551960

19651970

19751980

19851990

19952000

Dry Season

Wet Season

Annual Rainfall

Water Years 1914 – 2009

1:10 Wet

1:5 Wet

1:10 Dry

1:5 Dry Average

Y = 115.71 – 0.03X

R2 = 0.006

1988-2009

Moderate

variability 1

drought, no

extreme wet

Current projections indicate the District may experience sea level rise on the order of 5 to 20

inches within the next 50 years

from SFWMD, 2009, Climate Change and Water Management in South Florida

Sea Level Rise

Outline

I. Background

IV. Summary

Elevated and Hyper-Salinity

Working Definitions

General Occurrences

Concerns

Source: Scientific American

Biscayne Bay Background 36 – 37

Elevated >37 (38+)

Hyper-Salinity >39 (40+)

Global Salinity Patterns

Hyper-Salinity Occurrences

Evaporation > Rainfall + Inflows

When near this balance small changes in flow can have large impact on salinity conditions

Not common Enclosed shallow lagoons Primarily associated with Mediterranean climates

(cool wet season, hot dry season)

Florida Bay; Texas; Baja; Africa; Australia

Hyper-Salinity

What Are The Concerns?

1. Resources under stress, sub-lethal impacts

2. Impacts of other stressors magnified

3. Low diversity of species

Creates instability

environment at risk for a

sudden, rapid regime shift

taking a decade or more to

re-stabilize

Elevated & Hyper-Salinity

Bay-Wide Annual Occurrences

Water Year

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

37>psu<38

38>psu<39

39>psu<40

psu>40

Based on monthly monitoring data

Average

rainfall

range in

most years

Note effect

of falling

just below

rainfall

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

Elevated Salinity Patterns:

Sub Regions 1988-2009

SCOR N MIA NC NCOB SCI SCMB SCOB S_CS S_BS ATL

t of M

easure

37>psu<38

38>psu<39

39>psu<40

psu>40

Hyper-salinity in all regions increasing from North to South

Elevated and Hyper-Salinity

Bay-Wide Annual Patterns

Occurrence sensitive to rainfall

Dry years

Slightly below average years see increase.

Timing of wet season onset (2005)

Elevated salinities observed in all sub-

regions

General sub-region groupings of elevated

and hyper-salinity

Elevated and Hyper-Salinity:

Probability Contour Maps

Dry years: Monthly

Average years: Monthly and

Continuous Monitoring

Wet years

Elevated Salinity

Dry Water Year

> 37 psu

Hyper-Salinity

Dry Water Year

> 39 psu

Elevated and

Hyper-Salinity:

Dry Water Years

1988,1990,1999

Monthly Data

Elevated Salinity

Average Water Year

> 37 psu

Hyper-Salinity

Average Water Year

> 39 psu

Elevated and

Hyper-Salinity:

Average Rainfall

Water Year

Monthly Data

> 37 psu > 39 psu Elevated and

Hyper-Salinity

Continuous Data

2004 - 2008

Average Rainfall

Years (slightly above)

Different station

distribution

Limited number of

Elevated Salinity Hyper- Salinity

Elevated Salinity

Wet Water Year

> 37 psu

Hyper-Salinity

Wet Water Year

> 39 psu

Elevated and

Hyper-Salinity:

Wet Water Years

1995,1996,

1998, 2004

Monthly Data

Elevated and Hyper-Salinity:

Probability Contour Maps

All Regions - dry and average years

Dry years - highest probability in South

Average years

– Highest elevated salinity in Central mid and outer

regions

– Same probability in South and parts of Central

Wet years – elevated only in Central

Hyper-salinity concentrated in areas consistent

with occurrence of elevated salinity

3-D Plots showing % occurrences for

each month

Hyper-salinity

Elevated salinity

Overall April, May, June have highest %, but

can occur in all months in some basins

When Does Hyper-Salinity Occur?

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Regions and Months:

Hyper-Salinity

Regions and Months:

Elevated Salinity Conditions

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Scale different than hyper-salinity graph

Months of occurrences

North - lowest incidences of hyper-salinity &

elevated salinities can occur throughout the

Central (North) - April through July; May highest

Central (South) - April through September: May

highest; elevated throughout wet season mid-

bay/Turkey Point and Card Sound

South - throughout the year in Barnes Sound

When Does Hyper-Salinity

Occur?

Outline

I. Background

II. Evaluation Objectives (2010)

IV. Summary

Summary Objectives

and Approach

Assess potential use of salinity as indicator

using observations

Existing conditions

Evaluations are based on a whole system

approach:

Salinity patterns

Extent of elevated and hyper-salinity occurrences

Updated rainfall conditions

Summary

Bay-Wide Salinity Patterns

East-west gradient: all regions

Regions have different gradients,

influenced by inflow quantity and

fresh water displacement

Influence of freshwater inflow

Lowest salinity areas in North and

Central Regions

Seasonal freshwater inflow signal

east to west

Summary: Occurrence

Elevated and Hyper-Salinities

Elevated salinity throughout the Bay

Hyper-salinity throughout the Bay – Most late dry season

– Throughout the year in some areas

– Average rainfall years

– Near-shore areas

– Increase from North to South

Water Year

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

37>psu<38

38>psu<39

39>psu<40

psu>40

Summary: Rainfall

Limited extreme conditions in last 22 years

Water budget is important

• Small change in inflow can impact budget

(resulting in elevated or hyper- salinity)

• Sensitivity to slightly below average rainfall

Conclusions

Salinity Observations

Establish existing conditions

Establish performance measures or to meet rule

development criteria (MFL, reservations)

Bay-Wide Assessment

Indicates two areas in central and north with

lowest salinities

Indicates all regions are prone to elevated and

hyper-salinity

Salinity conditions

Sensitive to small differences in rainfall

(freshwater)

Next Steps for Inflow Analyses

Some additional assessment would be

needed to proceed with rule development

(MFL or Water Reservation) or establish

restoration performance measures

Some further QA/QC needed salinity data

Evaluate the average range (48”- 66”/year) in

context of inflow quantities

Expand seasonal analyses

Examine inflow data 1988 - 2009

Next Steps for Inflow Analyses

Expand the years of water budget information

Use water budget to calculate quantities of

water needed for specific salinity conditions

(e.g., as required by specific Rule or needed

for performance measures)

Consideration of other factors (sea level rise)

Link salinity condition to biological resources

Hyper-salinity

Inflow signal

Estuarine conditions

Questions?

Overview of

Salinity Occurrence and

Distribution in Biscayne Bay

Melody Hunt

Environmental Scientist - Lead

Restoration Sciences Department

Overview of Salinity Occurrence and Distribution in Biscayne Bay · 2016-10-16 · Biscayne Bay...

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