Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis Overview (Full)1

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Primavera Risk Analysis

Wesley GilletteSenior Product Manager

Agenda

• Value of Project Risk Analysis

• Solution Overview

• Summary

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Value of Risk Analysis

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Who needs Risk Analysis?

• Executives/Program Managers– Need to assess bid viability– Need to assess risk during project selection

• Project Managers/Project Controls– Need to understand the impact of risk on the project schedule

and cost– Need to perform a cost/benefit analysis on mitigation plans– Need to satisfy a contractual/regulatory requirement for risk

analysis

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Benefits of Effective Risk Analysis

• Increased confidence in bids & project selection

• Increased awareness of project assumptions

• Increased project success by enabling better project management

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Solution Overview

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Primavera Risk Analysis

• Methodology based risk analysis • Schedule Quality Assessment• Comprehensive Risk Modeling• Qualitative and quantitative Risk Register• Standard Analysis Reports• Scenario Comparison Reports• Risk Adjusted Schedule and Cash flow Report

Risk Analysis Methodology

Risk Planning

Risk Identification

Risk Assessment

Risk Response

Risk Reporting

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Based on: PMBOK Chapter 11, APM PRAM Guide, AS/NZ S4360

Schedule Quality Assessment

Verify schedule quality by checking for scheduling best

practices

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A poor quality schedule affects the quality and

reliability of the risk analysis

Select the checks to run against the schedule

Schedule Quality Assessment

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Creates an interactive report with links to drill

down into the detail

Risk Modeling

• Estimate Uncertainty– Distributions (e.g. 3pt estimate)– User defined fields– Templates

• Risk Events– Discrete events which may impact the project schedule– Modeled with a probability and impact

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Appling Risk Uncertainty to Schedule

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Can note the assumptions & rationale supporting the

assessmentCan assess uncertainty

at a summary level

Apply estimate uncertainty consistently

through the use of templates

Building Risk Register – Qualitative Assessment

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Priložnosti in nevarnosti

Izdelava in kvalitativna ocena tveganj

Building Risk Register – Quantitative Assessment

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Then assess risks quantitatively

Building Risk Register – Linking Risks to Schedule

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Mapiranje vpliva tveganj na aktivnosti in celoten

plan

Kvalitativna ocena tveganj

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Building Scenarios & Running the Analysis

Create risk scenarios

Run the analysis and view the reports

Running the Analysis

• Monte Carlo simulation– Random simulation of probable outcomes– Not a guarantee of what will happen

• Sensitivity Analysis– Identifies what is likely to drive the project schedule

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Results – Analyzing Contingency

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View results for the entire project or selected WBS

or activity

Shows probability of success and contingency

needed

See the impact of risk on project & activity dates

and cost

Results – Project Drivers

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Criticality Index shows how often activities are on

the critical path

Alternate critical path activities

Results – Project Drivers

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Displays schedule & cost drivers

(sensitivity analysis)

Drivers can be schedule uncertainty or risk events

Evaluating Risk Response Plans

• Understand pre-response results

• Develop Risk Response plan

• Analyze

• Cost/Benefit analysis

• Track and report status

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Risk Register – Mitigation Planning

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Pre-Mitigation: Current assessment

of the risk

Mitigation: What can be done to reduce the

impact the risk

Post-Mitigation: Assessment of the risk after mitigation

Results – Updated Contingency

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Evaluate the change in contingency from pre-

mitigated scenario

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Results – Scenario Comparison

Primerjava učinkov tveganj in učinkov zmanjševanja tveganj

Results – Probabilistic Cash Flow

Shows the difference between what was planned

and what is probable

Shows the impact of uncertainty and risks on cash flow and resources Probabilistic spend

curves

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Results – Risk Adjusted Schedule

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Compare deterministic schedule vs. a

probabilistic schedule(e.g. P50 & P80)

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Summary

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© 2009 Oracle Corporation

Primavera Risk Analysis

• Methodology based risk analysis • Schedule Quality Assessment• Comprehensive Risk Modeling• Qualitative and quantitative Risk Register• Standard Analysis Reports• Scenario Comparison Reports• Risk Adjusted Schedule and Cash flow Report

Benefits of Effective Risk Analysis

• Increased confidence in bids & project selection– Validation of schedule– Appropriate contingency at project level (not activity level)

• Increased awareness of project assumptions– Realistic project schedule– Common understanding of project schedule and risks

• Increased project success by enabling better project management– Understanding of project drivers– Validate risk response plans

© 2009 Oracle Corporation