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Open Forum for Agricultural BiotechnologyOpen Forum for Agricultural BiotechnologyOctober 2010N i bi KNairobi, Kenya
Trends in potential GMO trade‐ a case study for Kenya
Kimani V Pesticides and Agricultural Resource Centre
Background
International Food Policy Research InstituteImport control and documentation requirements of living modified organisms for food, feed or
iprocessing:
Implications of the Cartagena Protocol’s article 18 2 a inImplications of the Cartagena Protocol s article 18.2.a in Kenya
20092009
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Article 18.2 (a) of the Protocol
18E h P t h ll t k t i th t 2. Each Party shall take measures to require that
documentation accompanying:(a) Living modified organisms that are intended for (a) Living modified organisms that are intended for
direct use as food or feed, or for processing, clearly identifies that they "may contain" living modified organisms and are not intended for intentional introduction into the environment, as well as a contact point for further information The Conference of the point for further information. The Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to this Protocol shall take a decision on the detailed requirements Protocol shall take a decision on the detailed requirements for this purpose, including specification of their identity and any unique identification, no later than two years after the date of entry into force of this Protocol;
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Article 18 2(a) explained ( ) p Clear identification in the documentation that accompanies shipments of LMO FFPs implies that a accompanies shipments of LMO‐FFPs implies that a system of detection, segregation and identity preservation may need to be set uppreservation may need to be set up.
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Scope of studyp yPotential GMO import data for the llast 10 yearsImport regulations and Import regulations and documentation for GMOs‐ both LMOS‐FFPS and introductions N ti l l b t it f National laboratory capacity for Analysis of GMOs.y
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Status of GM Crops and LMOsStatus of GM Crops and LMOs demand in Africa Maize‐ high demand in some countries‐ intermittent production interrupted by crises of various kinds p p y Drought Civil strife and war Terrorism Poverty Distribution bottlenecks in some countries Distribution bottlenecks in some countries
Need for imports into and transit thru either Africa or outside the continent.
the size of the regional maize market (EAC and COMESA) was estimated at slightly over US$1billion in 2007( real h % h b id li EAGC)share was 13%‐ the rest was met by outside supplies‐ EAGC)
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Kenya potential GMOs demand y pMaize Soya beans yCottonCanola(rape seed)
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Maize Maize is the most important food crop in Kenya.
h hl d d d The monthly maize demand is estimated at 3 million bags
Annual between 33 and 36 million bags (2.97 to 3.24 million metric tonnes) (Ministry of Agriculture, 2009). 27th Oct 2010‐ PS Agriculture quoted 36 million 7 g q 3bags in stock will be sufficient until Sept 2011
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Maize The difference of about three million bags
i l i i d b b h equivalent is estimated to be met by wheat, rice, sorghum, millet, cassava and other galternatives.
These figures may be conservative estimates These figures may be conservative estimates and quantities as high as 40million bags h b i d (B i )have been estimated (Boit, 2009).
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Uses of maize
Flour is used to make a meal called “ugali” This is widely accepted as the staple food for Kenya. y
This flour is also the component used to make Corn Soya blends used for special make Corn‐Soya blends used for special needs such as refugee mothers, children, as
ll h bl d i h h ill well as other blends with sorghum, millet, cassava, etc.
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Uses of Maize Grain is cooked either as dry maize mixed with b i beans, peas, pigeon peas, cow peas or as green maize in various forms.
l d h b % f It is also estimated that about 1% of maize production is used for livestock feed for cattle,
l d ( ) poultry and pigs (Wiest, 2009). A small proportion of the maize is also extracted and used for production of corn oil.
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Maize Production The crop is grown in almost all agro‐
l i l ecological zones Two out of every three farms(Kibaara, 2005). Two out of every three farms(Kibaara, 2005). The country produces an annual average of
b t 8 illi b about 28 million bags. Over the last 10 years, domestic production y , phas stagnated between 24 and 28 million bags (Kibaara 2005: MOA 2009) bags (Kibaara, 2005: MOA, 2009).
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Maize imports p Deficit of between 8‐12 million bags is bridged by imports from several sourcesimports from several sources
The quantity of imported maize has increased from 2.9 percent between 1970 and 1991 to an average of 12 9 p 97 99 gpercent in the last 10 years (www.fao.org).
These estimates could be higher in some years. In 2008‐2009 financial year for example, 5.8 million bags had been imported by March of 2009.Th i b i l i f l b d i d There is substantial informal cross border maize trade Uganda/Kenya and Tanzania/Kenya . 1995: 84,000 tonnes for Ug/Kenya(Ackello‐Agutu et al)tonnes for Ug/Kenya(Ackello Agutu et al)
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Demand, Production& Imports , p
3000000
3500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
es
1500000
2000000
Tonn
e
DemandProductionTotal imports
500000
1000000 Total importsLinear (Demand)
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
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Year
Sources of maize imports pNon‐GMO GMO(maize and others) UNITED ARAB EMIRATES UNITED ARAB EMIRATES UNITED KINGDOM ITALY TANZANIA UKRAINE
CANADA SOUTH AFRICA
UNITED STATES OF UGANDA BELGIUM FRANCE MADAGASCAR SWITZERLAND
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
INDIA SWEDEN MALAWI ZAMBIA BULGARIA SAUDI ARABIA
INDIA ARGENTINA
SAUDI ARABIA TUNISIA KYRGYZSTAN WESTERN SAHARA MOZAMBIQUE
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Average maize imports to Kenya from GMO g p yproducing countries vs. total imports (1999‐2008)
140000
100000
120000
140000
nnes
60000
80000Ton
20000
40000
0ARGENTINA UNITED
STATES OF AMERICA
SOUTH AFRICA
TOTAL
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AMERICA
Annual maize imports from GMO producing and non‐GMO producing countries 1999‐2008GMO producing countries 1999 2008
400000
450000
300000
350000
400000ANNUAL TOTAL IMPORTS FROM NON‐GMO PRODUCERS
200000
250000
Tonnes
ANNUALTOTAL
100000
150000ANNUALTOTAL IMPORTS FROM GMO PRODUCERS
0
50000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Implications p Kenyan production meets about 70% of its annual maize demand maize demand.
This percentage may be less in some years depending on factors such as drought and political developments on factors such as drought and political developments in Kenya and in the neighboring countries.
Overall there has been a steady increase in maize Overall, there has been a steady increase in maize imports over time.
S th Af i t h b i t tl South African exports have been consistently increasing and in the last year, imports of over 100, 000 tonnes have been recorded tonnes have been recorded.
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South Africa With surplus N GMO i i Non‐GMO maize at a premium
Closet source with a surplus
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Kenyay The authorizing government ministries such as the Ministry of Agriculture appear to have the Ministry of Agriculture appear to have accepted that GMOs can be imported into the country.y
KEPHIS admitted that 5/11 consignments in the lat 2 years had GMO content
World surplus will be GMONon‐GMO countries can only meet their own ydemand‐ eg. TZ banned exports of maize to Kenya in 2009
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Soya beanSoya bean
imported as grain bl d corn soya blend
meal and meal and other finished products such as soya chunks for both human and animal feed ingredientsfeed ingredients.
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Soya uses yManufacture of animal feeds. Making of soya flour and “tea”. Corn‐Soya blend is also in high demand in Corn‐Soya blend is also in high demand in the country.
A small amount of Soya margarine is produced.p
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Soya productiony p Production of soya beans in Kenya has remained quite low Estimates 5 000 tonneslow. Estimates 5,000 tonnes.
The demand for soya bean has been rising in the last ten years ten years.
The trend is however not consistent. 45,000 tonnes in 2007 and a drop to 8000 tonnes in 2008 2007 and a drop to 8000 tonnes in 2008.
Several efforts have also been on‐going to promote the i f b i th t id f th growing of soya bean in the western side of the
country.
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Demand In Kenya (and in Tanzania), a paradox that the emerging small scale food and feed the emerging small‐scale food and feed processing sector and other potential d ti b f b t tl f domestic buyers of soybean constantly face shortages of soybean grains
Yet Farmers complain of lack of market and low prices for their soybean.
A small proportion of imported soya is also exported to Ethiopia.exported to Ethiopia.
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Corn soya blend y The demand for soya for Corn‐Soya blend is quite high in Kenya in Kenya.
World Food Program in large quantities for use in refugee camps and for feeding children. g p g
The data shown below does not include Corn‐Soya blend, a significant import into Kenya and for transit purposes.
An alternative to maize grain imports by the World F d P f h l f d d Food Programme for the last few years due to duty on maize grain at 25%.
Also for transit to Sudan Somalia and Rwanda Also for transit to Sudan, Somalia and Rwanda
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Soya imports(1999‐2009) y p ( )
45 00050,000
30 00035,00040,00045,000
T
15 00020,00025,00030,000o
nn
5,00010,00015,000e
s
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
ANNUAL TOTALS GMOS( USA ARGENTINA AND SOUTH AFRICA)
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ANNUAL TOTALS GMOS( USA, ARGENTINA AND SOUTH AFRICA)ANNUAL TOTALS NON GMOS ( 18 COUNTRIES)
Si ifi t f COUNTRY TOTAL IMPORTS tonnes
Significant sources of soya COUNTRY TOTAL IMPORTS tonnes
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 1ARGENTINA 7,410DEMOCRATIC REP OF CONGO 20EPZ 31ETHIOPIA 440UNITED KINGDOM 7ITALY 1 384ITALY 1,384MALAWI 1,251TANZANIA 2,588UGANDA** 55,634UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 10,242ANDORA 20IN:INDIA 117CHINA 2CHINA 2WESTERN SAHARA 175KOREA 0SOUTH AFRICA 2,313
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TOTALS 81,636
Cotton seedCotton seed
Cotton seed cake which is an important animal feed raw material in Kenya.
The seed comes from Uganda and Tanzania with the latter a more significant source.
From Uganda, much of the commodity enters the country via Busia and Malaba
Consignments from Tanzania are imported through Isebania, transited to Tanzania through Namanga for extraction and then re‐exported into Kenya.
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Cotton seed imports and production
16,000.0
18,000.0
12,000.0
14,000.0
16,000.0Ton
6,000.0
8,000.0
10,000.0nne
TANZANIA
UGANDA
2,000.0
4,000.0
,s Production
0.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
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Year
Canola Canola is a group of rape seed cultivars initially
i C d d b tl i grown in Canada and now subsequently in many other countries. h d l l f h l d The word canola may also refer to the oil extracted
from certain cultivars of oil seed rape. Kenya Revenue Authority records, no canola. Entries are under rape seed or colza seed, low in p ,erucic.
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Uses Canola is used as a vegetable oil or an animal feed principally for cattle principally for cattle.
Imports into the country have been for seed, expected to be planting material as the volumes have been fairly to be planting material as the volumes have been fairly low.
One consignment was imported in the last year for use One consignment was imported in the last year for use in animal feeds but in general, soya beans are preferred for animal feed usesfor animal feed uses.
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World canola World canola production is growing rapidly 36 million tonnes of rapeseed was produced in the 2003‐4 season, and 46 million tonnesin the 2003 4 season, and 46 million tonnesin 2004‐5(FAO, 2007).K lik l t f ll it d t t Kenya likely to follow suit due to cost implications for palm oil
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Imports p30.0
35.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
nnes
10 0
15.0
20.0
Ton
0 0
5.0
10.0
0.01999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ANNUAL TOTALS GMOS (SOUTH AFRICA) ANNUAL TOTALS NON GMO COUNTRIES( 4 COUNTRIES)
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U O S G OS (SOU C ) U O S O G O COU S( 4 COU S)
G i b lk Grain bulk handlers
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KilindiniDocked with maize
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Inside the ship
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Sampling
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SamplingSampling
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WFP Logistics Office Mombasa
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Conclusions Kenya’s demand for maize outstrips supply in most cases Kenya is a transit point for other countries especially those y p p y
needing food aid Imports of maize, soya and cotton likely to continue Kenya heading to GMO production as well and could easily be an Kenya heading to GMO production as well and could easily be an
exporter Exports likely even this year considering the prevailing low prices
and high production( or is it overflow of imports in the last 1 and high production( or is it overflow of imports in the last 1 year?)
Kenyan maize storage structure is weak and lasts max 6 months for growers and too expensive for the NCPBfor growers and too expensive for the NCPB.
General estimates of demand for maize may be inaccurate Maize is not just food, but a cash crop
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Conclusions Corn soya blend demand presents a huge domestic market but needs some research market but needs some research
Farmers could be encouraged to grow soyaP i h d ld b k Processing methods could be key
Cotton seed demand high due to high cost of Kenyan Ch d d cotton. Cheaper cotton needed
Study needed on canola as an alternative oil d h f f d lconsidering the preference for non‐saturated oils
(health considerations)
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Thank Thank you
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Contacts
Virginia KimaniPesticides and Agricultural Resource Centre
Hurlingham Plaza1st Floor
T l Tel +254 20 2713419Fax + 254 20‐ 2727732
Website: www.parcpest.comWebsite: www.parcpest.comEmail: parcpest09@gmail.com
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