NON-RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING. WHY DO WE CARE? 2 RAPID CHANGE Technology Regulation 3

NON-RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING

WHY DO WE CARE?

2

RAPID CHANGE

Technology Regulation

3

4

LED SALES RISING

HUGE MARKET

Large Piece of Target & Achievements

Large End-use

5

MOMENTUM SAVINGS

6

7

WE TRACKED THE ENTIRE NON-

RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING MARKET

8

DISTRIBUTOR SALES DATA 9

CALCULATING TOTAL MARKET SAVINGS

Changes in efficacy drive savings

Baseline Efficacy (L/W)

Actual Efficacy (L/W)

10

2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1

24

52

8186

1

10

22

34 36

Regional Momentum Savings BPA Momentum Savings

DRAFT MOMENTUM SAVINGS (aMW)

11

244 aMW

102 aMW

What percentage of your total LED unit sales would you estimate do not go through utility

incentive programs?Small

DistributorsMedium

DistributorsLarge

Distributors

“Virtually none”"Less than 10%"

10%10%10%20%30%30%

"in excess of 30%"99%

“less  than 5%” “Barely any”25-30%

50%50%

“at least 90%”

WE LEARNED A LOT ABOUT HOW THE MARKET WORKS

13

Lighting OnlyFull LineMaintenance Repair & Operations

DIFFERENT DISTRIBUTOR TYPES

14

NEW PLAYERS

15

“I’ve been in this industry 35 years. I’ve never heard of any of these companies.”

- Manufacturer at Lightfair 2015

NEW VALUE CHAIN

16

Lamp Manufacturers Fixture Manufacturers

NEW PRODUCT CATEGORIES

17

18

2013

TLED EMERGENCE

NEW SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYNAMICS

19

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR PROGRAMS?

20

SALES DATA IS ESSENTIAL TO

PROGRAM STRATEGY

21

UNDERSTAND POWER DYNAMICS AMONG MARKET ACTORS

22

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50 ActualForecastTLED purchase price will reduce

by half from 2014 to 2017

WATCH PRICE, PERFORMANCE, AND FEATURES

23

TAILOR STRATEGIES TO MARKET SEGMENTS AND PRODUCT NICHES

24

QUESTIONS?

26

Carrie Cobbclcobb@bpa.gov

503-230-4985

CONTACT

BACK UP SLIDES

WE INTERVIEWED

28

18 DISTRIBUTORS20

4 REGIONAL LIGHTING EXPERTS

4 LIGHTING PROGRAM MANAGERS

MANUFACTURERS

4 PROGRAM STAFF

REVIEWED MANUFACTURER FINANCIAL

AND INVESTOR REPORTS

29

30

SURVEY REPRESENTATION

31

30%OR

55%WA

10%ID

5%MT

SALES DATA, BY STATE

32

HID SALES DECLINING

HOW MUCH LIGHT DOES THE REGION NEED?

33

CONSTANT LUMENS

34

Same Lumen Demand in Baseline and Actual Case

DRAFT REGIONAL MOMENTUM SAVINGS

35

Momentum Savings

Total Market Savings

Program Savings Above Council Baseline

Program Savings Below 6th Plan Baseline

2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

6th Plan Baseline Actual Programs' Baseline Net of Programs

DRAFT SUMMARY RESULTS

36

  2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total

Regional Momentum

Savings1.3 24 52 81 86 244

BPA Momentum

Savings0.5 10 22 34 36 102