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NON-RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING
WHY DO WE CARE?
2
RAPID CHANGE
Technology Regulation
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4
LED SALES RISING
HUGE MARKET
Large Piece of Target & Achievements
Large End-use
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MOMENTUM SAVINGS
6
7
WE TRACKED THE ENTIRE NON-
RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING MARKET
8
DISTRIBUTOR SALES DATA 9
CALCULATING TOTAL MARKET SAVINGS
Changes in efficacy drive savings
Baseline Efficacy (L/W)
Actual Efficacy (L/W)
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1
24
52
8186
1
10
22
34 36
Regional Momentum Savings BPA Momentum Savings
DRAFT MOMENTUM SAVINGS (aMW)
11
244 aMW
102 aMW
What percentage of your total LED unit sales would you estimate do not go through utility
incentive programs?Small
DistributorsMedium
DistributorsLarge
Distributors
“Virtually none”"Less than 10%"
10%10%10%20%30%30%
"in excess of 30%"99%
“less than 5%” “Barely any”25-30%
50%50%
“at least 90%”
WE LEARNED A LOT ABOUT HOW THE MARKET WORKS
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Lighting OnlyFull LineMaintenance Repair & Operations
DIFFERENT DISTRIBUTOR TYPES
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NEW PLAYERS
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“I’ve been in this industry 35 years. I’ve never heard of any of these companies.”
- Manufacturer at Lightfair 2015
NEW VALUE CHAIN
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Lamp Manufacturers Fixture Manufacturers
NEW PRODUCT CATEGORIES
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18
2013
TLED EMERGENCE
NEW SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYNAMICS
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WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR PROGRAMS?
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SALES DATA IS ESSENTIAL TO
PROGRAM STRATEGY
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UNDERSTAND POWER DYNAMICS AMONG MARKET ACTORS
22
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50 ActualForecastTLED purchase price will reduce
by half from 2014 to 2017
WATCH PRICE, PERFORMANCE, AND FEATURES
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TAILOR STRATEGIES TO MARKET SEGMENTS AND PRODUCT NICHES
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QUESTIONS?
BACK UP SLIDES
WE INTERVIEWED
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18 DISTRIBUTORS20
4 REGIONAL LIGHTING EXPERTS
4 LIGHTING PROGRAM MANAGERS
MANUFACTURERS
4 PROGRAM STAFF
REVIEWED MANUFACTURER FINANCIAL
AND INVESTOR REPORTS
29
30
SURVEY REPRESENTATION
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30%OR
55%WA
10%ID
5%MT
SALES DATA, BY STATE
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HID SALES DECLINING
HOW MUCH LIGHT DOES THE REGION NEED?
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CONSTANT LUMENS
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Same Lumen Demand in Baseline and Actual Case
DRAFT REGIONAL MOMENTUM SAVINGS
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Momentum Savings
Total Market Savings
Program Savings Above Council Baseline
Program Savings Below 6th Plan Baseline
2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
6th Plan Baseline Actual Programs' Baseline Net of Programs
DRAFT SUMMARY RESULTS
36
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total
Regional Momentum
Savings1.3 24 52 81 86 244
BPA Momentum
Savings0.5 10 22 34 36 102
