New Directions in Probabilistic Assessment Henk Roelant, LaRC Joanne Bechta Dugan, University of...

New Directions in Probabilistic AssessmentNew Directions in Probabilistic Assessment

Henk Roelant, LaRCHenk Roelant, LaRCJoanne Bechta Dugan, University of VirginiaJoanne Bechta Dugan, University of Virginia

Kevin Sullivan, University of VirginiaKevin Sullivan, University of Virginia

October 26, 2000October 26, 2000

ASSAPASSAP: Advanced System Safety : Advanced System Safety Assessment ProgramAssessment Program

• Dynamic Fault Tree analysis: a new approach to Dynamic Fault Tree analysis: a new approach to determining the probability of failure for complex determining the probability of failure for complex systemssystems

• Galileo/ASSAP: a software tool for DFT analysis Galileo/ASSAP: a software tool for DFT analysis developed at University of Virginia under the developed at University of Virginia under the sponsorship of LaRCsponsorship of LaRC

• Galileo/ ASSAP analyzes the probability of failure for Galileo/ ASSAP analyzes the probability of failure for complex systems (i.e. the “P” in PRA)complex systems (i.e. the “P” in PRA)

ASSAP DevelopmentASSAP Development

Being developed under NAS1-99098 (UVA)- 32 month effort (March 1999-November 2001) -$675,000 provided by NASA Code Q -Builds on 10 years worth of academic research funded by NSF, NASA and industry

Beta version of Galileo/ASSAP currently available for review.

Integrated efforts in software engineering and reliability engineering

Usable interoperable software environment using Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) components such as MS Word, MS PowerPoint and Visio

Demonstration of capabilities ...

User InterfaceUser Interface

Textual EditingTextual Editing

Rendering Graphical ViewRendering Graphical View

Low-Level EditingLow-Level Editing

Sensitivity AnalysisSensitivity Analysis

High-Level EditingHigh-Level Editing

Send To New PageSend To New Page

Connect GatesConnect Gates

Select SubtreeSelect Subtree

Render To TextualRender To Textual

Save & CloseSave & Close

Analyze Sage IIIAnalyze Sage III

Galileo/ASSAPGalileo/ASSAP Galileo/ASSAP is a promising new approach to

probabilistic analysis of critical systems

Sets a new standard for the “P” in PRA

Interested in reviewing the Beta version? Looking for beta testers (a few initially)

Contact Henk Roelant at NASA Langley h.a.roelant@larc.nasa.gov

757-864-1741