National Weather Service Nashville, TN Monday, March 30, 2020 · Below-Normal Favored > 33 nORR...

Saturday, April 11, 2020

High-Impact Weather Briefing

For Sunday, April 12, 2020

National Weather Service

Nashville, TN

Presented by Krissy Hurley

Saturday, April 11, 2020

What to Expect

Severe weather possible Sunday, including damaging wind and tornadoes…

• Rain and storms ongoing Sunday morning --- severe threat low

▪ Increasing confidence that the greatest threat for severe weather will be from Sunday

afternoon through late Sunday night

▪ Uncertainties remain…

▪ Morning-midday rain may inhibit larger severe weather outbreak in the afternoon/evening

▪ Range of possibilities exist with timing and location of storms through the day

▪ In addition, moderate to high confidence in heavy rainfall across much of the state,

with some locations surpassing 2-4” of rain…especially across southern counties

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Confidence & Uncertainty In Sunday’s Severe Threat

▪ What will increase the confidence/threat of severe weather?

▪ System takes a more northwesterly track, could enhance severe storm potential

▪ More sunshine, more instability to fuel the atmosphere

▪ If this occurs, widespread severe storms capable of damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes

▪ What will decrease the confidence/threat of severe weather?

▪ System takes a more southeasterly track, could act to limit severe storm potential

▪ Early-day cloud cover/thunderstorms may inhibit the strength of storms during the afternoon and

evening…though to “what degree” remains uncertain

Regardless, storms will be moving rapidly (50-60+ mph)!

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Track of System v. Severe Threat▪ Southerly track

▪ Decreases

confidence in

widespread severe

storms occurring

▪ Northerly track

▪ Increases

confidence in more

widespread severe

weather occurring

▪ Most likely track:

▪ MO bootheel to NW

TN to W KY

Storms will be moving

rapidly (50-60+ mph)!

L

L

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Tornadoes possible, especially

afternoon and evening

Damaging winds 60-70+ mph

Large hail possible

Heavy rainfall of 2-4+” could

lead to flash flooding

Hazard Levels:

Severe Outlook for Sunday

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Best Chance for Afternoon Severe Storms – If They Can Develop

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Timing of Greatest Severe Potential with the Main Line

6-10 PM 9PM-1 AM12-3 AM CDT

1-4 AM EDT

2-5 AM CDT

3-6 AM EDT

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Total Rainfall – Sunday thru Monday AM1.51.0 2.02.0 3.0 4.0+

(in inches)

Plan Ahead• Timing of greatest severe potential

AFTERNOON ANDEVENING (AFTER DARK!)

• Multiple ways to receive warnings

NOAA WEATHER RADIO, CELL PHONES, LOCAL MEDIA, ETC.

• Have your safety plan ready to go

STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY POSSIBLY PROVIDING LITTLE TIME TO REACT SO DO NOT

GO OUTSIDE TO LOOK!

National Weather Service – Nashville, TN

Saturday, April 11, 2020

What to Expect

Severe weather possible Sunday, including damaging wind and tornadoes…

• Rain and storms ongoing Sunday morning --- severe threat low

▪ Increasing confidence that the greatest threat for severe weather will be from Sunday

afternoon through late Sunday night

▪ Uncertainties remain…

▪ Morning-midday rain may inhibit larger severe weather outbreak in the afternoon/evening

▪ Range of possibilities exist with timing and location of storms through the day

▪ In addition, moderate to high confidence in heavy rainfall across much of the state,

with some locations surpassing 2-4” of rain…especially across southern counties

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Confidence & Uncertainty In Sunday’s Severe Threat

▪ What will increase the confidence/threat of severe weather?

▪ System takes a more northwesterly track, could enhance severe storm potential

▪ More sunshine, more instability to fuel the atmosphere

▪ If this occurs, widespread severe storms capable of damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes

▪ What will decrease the confidence/threat of severe weather?

▪ System takes a more southeasterly track, could act to limit severe storm potential

▪ Early-day cloud cover/thunderstorms may inhibit the strength of storms during the afternoon and

evening…though to “what degree” remains uncertain

Regardless, storms will be moving rapidly (50-60+ mph)!

National Weather Service Nashville

(615) 754-8502

Contact Us

sr-ohx.dss@noaa.gov (monitored 24 hours)