Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Saturday, April 11, 2020
High-Impact Weather Briefing
For Sunday, April 12, 2020
National Weather Service
Nashville, TN
Presented by Krissy Hurley
Saturday, April 11, 2020
What to Expect
Severe weather possible Sunday, including damaging wind and tornadoes…
• Rain and storms ongoing Sunday morning --- severe threat low
▪ Increasing confidence that the greatest threat for severe weather will be from Sunday
afternoon through late Sunday night
▪ Uncertainties remain…
▪ Morning-midday rain may inhibit larger severe weather outbreak in the afternoon/evening
▪ Range of possibilities exist with timing and location of storms through the day
▪ In addition, moderate to high confidence in heavy rainfall across much of the state,
with some locations surpassing 2-4” of rain…especially across southern counties
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Confidence & Uncertainty In Sunday’s Severe Threat
▪ What will increase the confidence/threat of severe weather?
▪ System takes a more northwesterly track, could enhance severe storm potential
▪ More sunshine, more instability to fuel the atmosphere
▪ If this occurs, widespread severe storms capable of damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes
▪ What will decrease the confidence/threat of severe weather?
▪ System takes a more southeasterly track, could act to limit severe storm potential
▪ Early-day cloud cover/thunderstorms may inhibit the strength of storms during the afternoon and
evening…though to “what degree” remains uncertain
Regardless, storms will be moving rapidly (50-60+ mph)!
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Track of System v. Severe Threat▪ Southerly track
▪ Decreases
confidence in
widespread severe
storms occurring
▪ Northerly track
▪ Increases
confidence in more
widespread severe
weather occurring
▪ Most likely track:
▪ MO bootheel to NW
TN to W KY
Storms will be moving
rapidly (50-60+ mph)!
L
L
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Tornadoes possible, especially
afternoon and evening
Damaging winds 60-70+ mph
Large hail possible
Heavy rainfall of 2-4+” could
lead to flash flooding
Hazard Levels:
Severe Outlook for Sunday
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Best Chance for Afternoon Severe Storms – If They Can Develop
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Timing of Greatest Severe Potential with the Main Line
6-10 PM 9PM-1 AM12-3 AM CDT
1-4 AM EDT
2-5 AM CDT
3-6 AM EDT
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Total Rainfall – Sunday thru Monday AM1.51.0 2.02.0 3.0 4.0+
(in inches)
Plan Ahead• Timing of greatest severe potential
AFTERNOON ANDEVENING (AFTER DARK!)
• Multiple ways to receive warnings
NOAA WEATHER RADIO, CELL PHONES, LOCAL MEDIA, ETC.
• Have your safety plan ready to go
STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY POSSIBLY PROVIDING LITTLE TIME TO REACT SO DO NOT
GO OUTSIDE TO LOOK!
National Weather Service – Nashville, TN
Saturday, April 11, 2020
What to Expect
Severe weather possible Sunday, including damaging wind and tornadoes…
• Rain and storms ongoing Sunday morning --- severe threat low
▪ Increasing confidence that the greatest threat for severe weather will be from Sunday
afternoon through late Sunday night
▪ Uncertainties remain…
▪ Morning-midday rain may inhibit larger severe weather outbreak in the afternoon/evening
▪ Range of possibilities exist with timing and location of storms through the day
▪ In addition, moderate to high confidence in heavy rainfall across much of the state,
with some locations surpassing 2-4” of rain…especially across southern counties
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Confidence & Uncertainty In Sunday’s Severe Threat
▪ What will increase the confidence/threat of severe weather?
▪ System takes a more northwesterly track, could enhance severe storm potential
▪ More sunshine, more instability to fuel the atmosphere
▪ If this occurs, widespread severe storms capable of damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes
▪ What will decrease the confidence/threat of severe weather?
▪ System takes a more southeasterly track, could act to limit severe storm potential
▪ Early-day cloud cover/thunderstorms may inhibit the strength of storms during the afternoon and
evening…though to “what degree” remains uncertain
Regardless, storms will be moving rapidly (50-60+ mph)!
