Monitoring and Prediction of Global Monsoons at the NOAA

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Monitoring and Prediction of Global Monsoons at the NOAA Climate

Prediction Center

Song Yang and CPC Global Monsoons Team

Maryland, USA

(Song.Yang@noaa.gov)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global- Monsoon.shtml

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1. CPC Global Monsoons Team

2. Products of CPC Monsoon Team(Monitoring and Prediction)

3. CPC Weekly Monsoon Updates

4. NCEP International Monsoon Forecaster Training Desk

Outline

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1. CPC Global Monsoon Team

Team MembersM. Chelliah, J. Gottschalck, W. Higgins, V. Kumar, K. Mo, J. Schemm, W. Shi, V. Silva, W. Thiaw, W. Wang, P. Xie, S.

Yang, S.-H. Yoo, and Q. Zhang

Monsoon GroupsAfrican Monsoons

American MonsoonsAsian-Australian Monsoons

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• To improve international services on monitoring and predictions of the global monsoon systems

• To consolidate the climate monitoring efforts at CPC

• To provide information for U.S. and global hazard assessments

• To provide information for improving the prediction of U.S. and global climate

• To provide real-time information about monsoons to the research/academic sector

Main Objectives

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CPC Global Monsoons webpage

Monitoring of current conditions & evolutions of monsoons

Monsoon climatological and statistical features

Monsoon predictions

Weekly monsoon updates

Seasonal and annual monsoon summaries

Publications of monsoons in NOAA products

Others

2. Current Products of CPC Global Monsoon Team

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Global patternsMultiple parameters, total fields & anomalies

For the past 7 (or 5), 30, and 90 days, mostly updated dailyhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

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From Global to Regional

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

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Daily Precipitation Time Series5x5 latitude-longitude average

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/180d -precip_click_map.shtml

Drought over Southwest China

180 days 90 days 30 days

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Week-1 & Week-2 Predictions

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Predictions of Monsoon Indices

Prediction of monthly Webster-Yang index

Prediction of daily Webster-Yang index

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JJA Relationships of Webster-Yang Monsoon Index with Rainfall and 850-mb Circulation Patterns

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Performance of NCEP CFS

JJA Precipitation

Monthly dynamical monsoon indices

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Performance of NCEP CFS (cont.)

Skill of prediction of daily Webster-Yang index

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Climatological onset dates of Asian summer monsoon

Monsoon Climatology

Climatological onset dates of West African monsoon

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North American Monsoon Forecast Forum

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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and

Prediction

Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP

June 28, 2010

For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

3. CPC Weekly Monsoon Updates

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4. NCEP International Monsoon Forecaster Training Desk

ObjectivesTo develop a capacity for improving climate prediction for countries

affected by monsoons and to facilitate international operational

collaboration.

Mission StatementTo build capacity in the prediction of monsoon weather and climate in

Asian countries through interagency and international cooperation to

help mitigate the impacts of natural hazards, to assess vulnerability

related to water supply and food security, and to save lives.

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Main Features

• Location: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Maryland

• Establishment in October 2010

• Format of training: Lecture, tours, hands-on, projects, reports, and follow- on collaborations

• Terms: 4 months per term, starting May 2011

• Content of training:

Lectures (Asian-Australian monsoon, African monsoon, North American monsoon, South American monsoon, ENSO, MJO, hazards, CPC forecast operations, and weather-climate enterprise), applications of NOAA products (data sets, models, and climate monitoring and prediction products), principles and methods of climate prediction, participations at CPC climate forecasts, hands-on training, model evaluations, development of monitoring and prediction products, research project, and others

• Administrative and logistic supports and visa application assistance

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Thank You

For information or comments, please contact:Song.Yang@noaa.gov