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NOAA’ Climate Prediction Center International Desks. Wassila M. Thiaw Team Leader. CPC Mission. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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NOAA’ Climate Prediction Center International Desks
Wassila M. ThiawTeam Leader
CPC Mission
• National temperature and precipitation outlooks
• Focus: short term climate
• Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers and institutions
• Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Products
We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and
the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.
Temperature Outlook
CPC’s International Decision Support Systems
Goals:• To provide timely, reliable, accurate, and relevant climate
information that developing countries can to make informed decisions.
Approach:• Develop collaborative partnerships to identify specific climate
information needs and enhance climate products
• Build capacity through improved understanding and more realistic prediction of the climate system
Background
• African Desk established in 1994 following the South American Desk in 1989 and the Caribbean Desk in 1993. The NCEP International Desks are part of the US contribution to the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Program (VCP)
• Initial Objective of the African Desk: To support capacity building in climate prediction, monitoring, and assessments at National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in Africa
• Motivation: Recurrent and severe droughts in Africa in the 70s through the 90s caused demand for water for human and agricultural use to exceed reliable supply
• African Desk expanded to include project support for USAID FFP and OFDA, and the recently established Monsoon Desk
• Monsoon Training Desk established in 2010
Why is Africa Relevant?
Hurricane Bill8/18/2009
• AWD formed and developed in West Africa, August 11
• NHC “invest area” off coastal Guinea and Senegal, August 12
• Tropical Storm Bill August 15• Major Hurricane Bill August 17
The Madden Julian OscillationSpring 2005 MJO Event
Why Africa is Relevant?
• High Impact Weather
• Extended range and long range outlooks
• Hazards Outlooks
• Monsoon Monitoring
• Professional Development Training
NOAA’ Climate Prediction Center (CPC) International Desks Web Site
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast – Probability of Exceedance
• Multi-model ensemble:• ECMWF• NCEP GFS and GEFS• UKMO
• Model diagnostics
• Expert interpretation and guidance
• Dissemination
CPC Global Tropics Hazards Outlooks
Seasonal to Interannual Climate Predictions
NCEP CFS V2 – 20 member ensemble forecasts for DJF 2011-12
ENSO Rainfall Composites
DJF SeasonWarm ENSO
DJF SeasonCold ENSO
JAS SeasonWarm ENSO
JAS SeasonCold ENSO
ENSO Rainfall Composites
Global to Regional Climate Information for Africa
Rainfall Forecasts for Sep-Nov 2011April Initial Conditions
Feeds into Regional ClimateOutlook Forums
Combination of CCA andCFS V2 Forecasts
Seasonal Rainfall Guidance
Seasonal Rainfall Guidance
Regional Climate Outlook Forums
• Mechanism to bring together climate experts to produce regional climate outlooks
• Outreach to develop effective communications strategies
• Representative users to identify needs and formulate strategies
• Capacity building
GHA Consensus Climate OutlookSeptember - December 2011
Courtesy: ICPAC Nairobi, Kenya
Operational Climate MonitoringRainfall Anomaly Jul – Dec 2010
• High resolution Satellite imagery used to derive rainfall estimates
• Departures from average are computed to monitor the evolution of seasonal rainfall
• Information used to assess impacts on agriculture and water resources
Vegetation Health Index
Operational Climate Monitoring
• Vegetation response to rainfall deficits
• Assess state of the crops
Support to USAID’s Food Security Planning
• Objective: Support
USAID/Food for Peace
• Facilitate decision making on
issues related to food security.
• Enable USAID for other risk
management strategies, such
as humanitarian relief efforts
Weekly Climate Risk Bulletins
Monitoring Drought
Monitoring Drought
Monitoring Drought
Summary Operational Products for Africa
South Asia Domain
New Opportunities: Climate and HealthMeningitis Incidence Rate
in logarithmic form - Case of Burkina FasoBase Period: 1968-2005
Yaka et al., 2008
New Opportunities: Climate and Health
Yaka et al., 20080
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
130 143 156 169 182 195 208 221 234 247 260 273 286 299 312 325 338 351 364
Day number
Cho
lera
cas
es
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Prec
ipita
tion
(in m
m)
Cholera in Dakar (Accumulated)Dakar precipitation (accumulated)
Climate and water borne Diseases Cholera
Cholera Incidence
Precipitation
CPC International Training Desk
• Provide professional development training to meteorologists in Africa and other parts of the world
• Began with the African Desk: Initially focused on climate predictions, assessments, and monitoring
• Expanded in 2006 to focus on short range weather forecasting as well in support of the WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
• Desk provides an opportunity to issue seamless guidance to African NMHSs from weather to climate
• Monsoon Training Desk established in 2010
African Training Desk
• Established in 1994 as part of DOS capacity building program
• Status: Hosted 117 visiting scientists from 37 African countries, Thailand and Panama, since 1995.
Residency Training CoverageAs of November 2011
African Weather Desk Curriculum
• Use and interpretation of NWP
• Access COMET NWP Distance Learning Training
• Increasing use of ensembles; Probabilistic products
• GIS applications
• Write forecast bulletins
• Week-1&2 forecasts
• Model verification studies
• Modes of variability (ENSO, MJO, etc.)
• Access and process large data to study predictability
• Subseasonal forecasting (Week-1 & Week-2)
• Seasonal rainfall forecasts
• Climate assessments and monitoring
• One week visit to the IRI
NCEP CFS V2 – 20 member ens. forecasts for DJF 2011-12
African Climate Desk Curriculum
On-The-Job Training
African Deskstaff and trainees
Senegal
NigeriaEthiopia
Thailand
EgyptMaliEgypt
On-The-Job Training
Ms. Awatif Mostafa, Egypt
Predicting Egypt Seasonal RainfallAwatif Mostafa
Monsoon Desk
• Established in 2010
• US China Bilateral Agreement on Science and Technology
• Objective: To improve climate prediction in countries affected by monsoons
Visiting Scientists in the Monsoon Desk
NOAA-USAID SponsoredInternational Climate Training Workshops
Theme: Operational Climate Prediction and Monitoring
Focus: Ocean Basins• Indian Ocean: Africa and SE
Asia, Vietnam, 2009
• Mediterranean: Africa and SE Europe, Turkey, 2010
• Atlantic Basin: Africa and Caribbean, Senegal, 2011
• Pacific Basin: Central America, South America, SE Asia, Pacific Islands, Costa Rica, 2012
Lecture Session on Droughts
Classroom photo,First International Training Workshop, Vietnam, 2009
Ocean Predictability
Model Name MembersNCEP CFS V1 15NCEP CFS V2 28GFDL-CM2.2 10IRI-Echam4-f 12IRI-Echam4-a 12CCSM3.0 6
Courtesy: H. Van den Dool
Proposed moored buoys
NOAA-WMOCapacity building – Ocean Observations
IOC/WMO Data Buoy Cooperation Panel
Capacity Building: Indian Ocean• First Workshop: Capetown, South Africa, April 2010
• Second Workshop: Mauritius, April 2011
• Third Workshop: Mombasa, Kenya, April 2012
Lecture Session on Droughts
NOAA-United NationsCapacity building – Ocean Observations
Participants in the First DBCP Capacity building Workshop
Vision
• Engage with users of climate information to identify needs and improve operational decision support systems
• Explore opportunities for emerging climate applications such as health risk management
• Work with international community to strengthen the capacity of climate institutions in developing countries
• Foster north – south collaboration on all aspects of climate variability and change, and provide a mechanism for technology transfer that yields tangible benefits
Thank you