Modeling cisco stress across Midwest lakes to aid management of cold-water fish … ·...

Modeling cisco stress across Midwest lakes to aid management of cold-water fish habitatMadeline Magee1, Jordan Read2, Andrew Rypel3,4, Peter McIntyre1

1UW-Madison Center for Limnology, 2USGS, 3WDNR, 4University of California – Davis

0

5

0

2

3

DO(mg/L)

Temp(°C)

Dep

th(m

)

Oxythermal nicheOxythermal stress (OTS)30

20

10

0

10

5

0

0

6

12

180

6

12

18

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

P. Vecsei Tim Parks

FWS

John Lyons

Cisco!

FisheryNative forage base

michigan.gov

commercialfishingmuseum.org

pashalake.com

Timothy Parks, WDNR

Cisco in Wisconsin

Dep

th(m

)

30

20

10

0

10

5

0

0

6

12

18

0

6

12

18

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Drivers of change

Dep

th(m

)

0

6

12

18

0

6

12

18

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Warmer air temperatures result in less oxythermal habitat

Drivers of change

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Drivers of change – Increased air temperature

Dep

th(m

)

0

6

12

18

0

6

12

18

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Eutrophication (P load) decreases habitat

Drivers of change

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Drivers of change – Eutrophication

Modeling habitat across the landscape

How will future changes alter distribution?

Timothy Parks, WDNR

Cisco present (2020-2040)Cisco present (2080-2100)

Modeling habitat across the landscape

How will future changes alter distribution?

Where can management options effectively offset changes?

Resilient

Extirpation

P reduction

Land cover

Engineered Solution

Model Design Climate

Water LevelDOC

Phosphorus Loading

Land Cover

Groundwater

Model Design

Variables

Surface Area 16

Depth 6

Latitude 1° bin (5)

Drainage type 2

DOC 3

Surface roughness(land cover)

5

Total P 5

72,000 simulation lakes per climate scenario

Hypothetical model lakesGeneral Lake Model (GLM)Aquatic EcoDynamics module (AED)

Preliminary Results MIROC5 RCP 8.5

Contemporary Period Mid Century (2020-2040) Late Century (2080-2100)

30% no cisco 64% no cisco 88% no cisco

TDO3 < 17°C (good)

TDO3 > 17°C (bad)

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201014

16

18

20

22

24

26

Max

imum

TD

O3

( o

C)

slope = 0.92 o

C decade- 1

How does climate alter fish habitat?

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201014

16

18

20

22

24

26

Max

imum

TD

O3

(o

C)

slope = 0.62 o

C decade- 1

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5Magee et al, in prep

Available vertical habitat

Aug

Aug Sep

SepBad

Good

Fish Lake

Lake Mendota

Modeling habitat across the landscape

How will future changes alter distribution?

Where can management options effectively offset changes?

Resilient

Extirpation

P reduction

Land cover

Engineered Solution

phosphorus loading reductions

What is the best way to conserve fish habitat?

aeration

Munger et al. 2016

artificial destratification

Dep

th(m

)

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecD

epth

(m)

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

In small, isolated lakes P loading reductions DO NOT improve habitat

Magee et al, in prep

15 20 25 30

TDO3 (o

C)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Estim

ated

CD

F

1995-2014

A1B

A1B + 50% P reduction

A1B + destratification

What is the best way to conserve fish habitat?

15 20 25 30

TDO3 (o

C)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Estim

ated

CD

F

1976-2014

mid-century A1B

A1B + 50% P reduction

A1B + destratification

In large lakes artificial destratification DOES NOT improve fish habitat

Fish Lake

Lake Mendota

BadGood

In Progress

Finish modeling of Wisconsin lakes

In Progress

Finish modeling Wisconsin lakes

Characterize lake resilience

Depth

Latit

ude

Depth

P lo

ad

DO

C

Depth

In Progress

Finish modeling Wisconsin lakes

Characterize lake resilience

Analyze cool-water fish species

Next Steps

In Progress

Finish modeling Wisconsin lakes

Characterize lake resilience

Analyze cool-water fish species

Create online tool

Next Steps

Questions?