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Application of CarboSOIL model to predict the effects of climate change on soil organic carbon stocks in agro- silvo -pastoral Mediterranean management systems. Miriam Muñoz -Rojas , Luca Doro, Luigi Ledda , and Rosa Francaviglia. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Application of CarboSOIL model to predict the effects of climate change on soil organic carbon stocks in agro-silvo-pastoral
Mediterranean management systems
Miriam Muñoz-Rojas , Luca Doro, Luigi Ledda, and Rosa Francaviglia
MED_SoilResearch Group
CarboSOIL, a new component of the Agroecological Decision Support System MicroLEIS
MicroLEIS DSS
Land degradation
risk
Land suitability
Land capability
Carbon sequestration
capacity
CarboSOIL: a land evaluation tool for soil C assessment
MicroLEIS DSS
Land degradation
risk
Land suitability
Land capability
Carbon sequestration
capacity
Climate regulation
Soil structure
Soil fertility
Water holding capacity
Infiltration capacity
Water use efficiency
Soil biological health
CarboSOIL: a land evaluation tool for soil C assessment
CarboSOIL: a land evaluation tool for soil C assessment
SoilN, pH, CEC
TextureBulk density
Water Holding Capacity
Land use15 land use types
ClimateWinter Temperature
Summer temperatureAnnual Rainfall
SiteElevation
Slope
CarboSOIL
CarboSOIL model diagram
SOIL ORGANIC CARBON0-25, 25-50, 50-75 cmO
UTP
UT
S
Incorporation of residuesMineralisation Aereation Nutrient
availabilityBiological
activity
Accumulation / loss Respiration
SOIL
PR
OCE
SSE
S
CLIMATE
TJJA PPT
LAND USE
LULC
SITE
ELEV SLOP SERO DRAI
SOIL
FCAP SAND CLAY PHWA NITROCEXC BULKINPU
T FA
CTO
RS
TDJF
Source: Muñoz-Rojas, 2012
CarboSOIL: a land evaluation tool for soil C assessment
CarboSOIL structure Variables CarboSOIL 25 CarboSOIL 50 CarboSOIL 75
Coef Coef CoefIntercept 774.69 1085.65 1150.92
ClimatePRPT 0.003 0.000 0.000TDJF 1.430 0.615 0.637TJJA -0.930 -0.687 0.067
SiteELEV 0.000 0.003 0.001SLOP 0.004 0.005 0.001DRAIad - - -df -2.078 -1.502 -0.210ex 1.887 -2.391 -4.076SEROne - - -se -0.997 -0.883 -0.403re -0.159 0.449 -0.466ge -0.333 1.216 -0.879
SoilNITRO 1.934 26.309 6.063PHWA 0.837 0.072 1.039CEXC -0.009 0.000 0.029SAND 0.803 1.056 1.161CLAY -1.192 -1.597 -1.687BULK -493.990 -686.455 -746.993FCAP 0.018 -0.068 0.002
Variables CarboSOIL 25 CarboSOIL 50 CarboSOIL 75
Coef Coef CoefIntercept 774.69 1085.65 1150.92
Land useLULC
ot - - -nr 1.169 -0.527 -0.469pr -1.483 0.858 -0.580vn -0.210 -3.229 -1.816fr -1.009 -0.525 1.068ol 1.481 -0.232 -0.313cm -0.371 -1.068 -2.222af -0.051 -1.627 -0.063bf -0.335 -2.405 0.029cf 0.284 -1.367 0.697mf 6.329 -1.377 0.982gr 1.511 0.409 -0.526sc 1.358 -0.635 -2.021wd 1.396 -3.398 1.334sm -2.465 -3.064 -3.576
y = a+ b1x1+b2x2+b3x3+ ---+bnxn
y= SOC ; a= Intercept; b= variables; x= coefficients
CarboSOIL: a land evaluation tool for soil C assessment
Study area
Mean altitude -285 m
Climate- warm temperate with dry and hot summer.• Mean annual rainfall of 623
mm (range 367–811)• Mean annual temperature
15.0°C (13.8–16.4)
Soil type - Haplic Endoleptic Cambisols, Dystric (WRB)
Potential native vegetation - Cork oak forest (Quercus suber L.), converted to managed land with pastures and vineyards in recent years
North-eastern Sardinia (Italy) 40°46’N, 9°10’E
Land use transformation
Study area
Six land uses with different levels of cropping intensification were compared:
Tilled vineyards (TV)
No-tilled grassed vineyards (GV)
Hay crop (HC): oats, Italian ryegrass and annual clovers or vetch for 5 years and intercropped by spontaneous herbaceous vegetation in the 6th year
Pasture (PA): 5 years of spontaneous herbaceous vegetation, and 1 year of intercropping with oats, Italian ryegrass and annual clovers or vetch cultivated as a hay crop
Cork oak forest (CO)
Semi-natural systems (SN): natural re-vegetation of former vineyards (scrublands, Mediterranean maquis and Helichrysum meadows)
Land use transformation
From left to right clockwise: no-tilled grassed vineyard (GV), grazed hay crop under oats land
cover (HC), semi-natural systems with scrubs and Mediterranean maquis (SN), grazed pasture with spontaneous vegetation (PA).
Study area
CarboSOIL application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems
Input data• Climate (actual and
future)• Site• Soil• Land use
Model test and validation• Measured values vs.
Predicted values
Scenario analysis• Actual scenario• Climate change
scenarios
Input data: variables description and sources
VARIABLE TYPE VARIABLE NAME CODE UNIT SOURCE AND REFERENCE
Dependent variable
Soil Organic C SOCC Mg/ha University of SassariFrancaviglia et al. (2012;2014)
Climate Total precipitation PRPT mmCRA elaborations from baseline data
and GCMsWinter Temperature TDJF oC
Summer Temperature TJJA oCSite Elevation ELEV m
University of SassariSlope SLOP %Drainage DRAI -
Field surveys and lab analysesFrancaviglia et al. (2012;2014)
Soil Erosion SERO -Soil Nitrogen NITRO g/100g
pH PHWA -Cation Exchange Capacity
CEXC meq/100g
Sand SAND g/100gClay CLAY g/100gBulk density BULK g/ccField capacity FCAP g/100g
Land use Land use/land cover LULC - Field surveys
Input dataModel test
and validation
Scenario analysis
CarboSOIL application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems
Input data: climate change scenarios
Global Climate Models
• GISS (Goddard Institute of Space Studies, USA)
• HadCM3 (Met Office, Hadley Centre, UK)
Climate Change Horizons
• 2010-2039 (2020)
• 2040-2069 (2050)
• 2070-2099 (2080)
IPCC Models
• A2 (high population growth, slow economic and energetic development)
• B2 (more emphasis on sustainability and efficient technologies
Input dataModel test
and validation
Scenario analysis
CarboSOIL application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems
Input dataModel test
and validation
Model applicationAssessment of the model performance
and comparison between measured and simulated values
n
iii SO
nRMSE
1
2)(1
n
1i
2i
n
1i
2ii
)OO(
)OS(1EF
where Oi and Si are observed and simulated SOC at ith value, Ō is the mean of the observed data and n is the number of the paired values. The lowest possible value of RMSE is zero, indicating that there is no difference between simulated and observed data.
CarboSOIL application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems
EF compares simulations and observations on an average level, and can range from - to 1, with the best performance at EF=1.
Input dataModel test
and validation
Model application
y = 0.777x + 5.4985R² = 0.9774; RMSE = 8.42; EF = 0.63
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
pred
icted
SOC
(Mg/
ha)
measured SOC (Mg/ha)
y = 0.8215x + 3.7392R² = 0.9902; RMSE = 5.07; EF = 0.98
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
pred
icted
SOC
(Mg/
ha)
measured SOC (Mg/ha)
y = 0.9702x + 1.4942R² = 0.7621; RMSE = 5.88; EF = 0.93
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
pred
icted
SOC
(Mg/
ha)
measured SOC (Mg/ha)
0-25 cm measured SD=14.12
25-50 cm measured SD=19.53
50-75 cm measured SD=11.09
Regression coefficients are significant at p<0.001 and R2 are high, the standard deviation of the measured values is higher than RMSE, and EF is very close to the optimum value.
CarboSOIL application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems
Input dataModel test
and validation
Model application
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
TV GV HC PA CO SN
GISS 2020 A250-75
25-50
0-25
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%
TV GV HC PA CO SN
GISS 2020 B250-75
25-50
0-25
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
TV GV HC PA CO SN
Hadley 2020 A250-75
25-50
0-25
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
TV GV HC PA CO SN
Hadley 2020 B2 50-75
25-50
0-25
CarboSOIL model predicted an overall increase of SOC stocks in the 2020 climate scenarios in all the soil sections, with the higher increases in the 50-75 cm section, and the smaller in the 25-50 cm soil section.
CarboSOIL application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems
Input dataModel test
and validation
Model application
A SOC decrease is instead expected in the 2050 and 2080 scenarios in the 25-50 cm soil section, more marked in the vineyards in comparison with the other land uses.
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
TV GV HC PA CO SN
GISS 2050 A250-75
25-50
0-25
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
TV GV HC PA CO SN
GISS 2050 B250-75
25-50
0-25
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
TV GV HC PA CO SN
Hadley 2050 A250-75
25-50
0-25
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
TV GV HC PA CO SN
Hadley 2050 B250-75
25-50
0-25
CarboSOIL application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems
Input dataModel test
and validation
Model application
-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%
TV GV HC PA CO SN
GISS 2080 A250-75
25-50
0-25
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
TV GV HC PA CO SN
GISS 2080 B250-75
25-50
0-25
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
TV GV HC PA CO SN
Hadley 2080 A250-75
25-50
0-25
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
TV GV HC PA CO SN
Hadley 2080 B250-75
25-50
0-25
Oppositely, SOC increases are still expected in the 0-25 cm section and to a more extent in the 50-75 cm section, particularly evident in the vineyards.
CarboSOIL application in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems
• The model CarboSOIL has proved its ability to predict SOC stocks at different soil depths under different climate change scenarios.
• Climate change will have a negative impact on SOC stocks in the soil section 25-50 cm, in particular in a long term (2050 and 2080).
• Important decreases of SOC stocks were found in vineyards.
• The methodology developed in this research might be easily applied to other Mediterranean areas with available data on climate, site, soil and land use.
Conclusions
Miriam Muñoz-Rojas , Luca Doro, Luigi Ledda, and Rosa Francaviglia
MED_SoilResearch Group
Thank you!
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