Mega-Ship Math – Determining a Winning Formula...• Mega vessels entering Asia-Europe trade...

Mega-Ship Math –Determining a Winning Formula

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May 8, 2014

Setting the Table• Ship sizes inevitably increase ascarriers seek economies of scale and reduced costs on per box basis• Mega vessels entering Asia-Europetrade forcing cascade of “former” mega vessels into TP trade• Opening of new Panama Canallocks in 2015 to allow larger vessels to call U.S. East Coast without going via Suez• East Coast ports competing to begateway of choice for larger vessels

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How Big are We Talking?

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• Not the biggest shipsin the world (those are in Asia-Europe)• On average notsignificantly smaller than ships serving USWC ports• Remains to be seen ifdemand will drive plethora of big ships to USEC

Maximum Vessel Size Asia-USWC

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9,700

11,660

13,092

13,092

13,092

9,465

9,200

9,200

10,114

10,114

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Asia to U.S. Pacific Northwest

Asia to U.S. Pacific Southwest

Source: BlueWater Reporting (as of April each year)

Average Vessel Size Asia-USWC

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5,879

5,625

6,159

6,274

6,082

6,267

6,306

5,952

5,965

6,468

5,200 5,400 5,600 5,800 6,000 6,200 6,400 6,600

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Asia to U.S. Pacific Northwest

Asia to U.S. Pacific Southwest

Source: BlueWater Reporting (as of April each year)

Maximum Vessel Size Asia-USEC

6Source: BlueWater Reporting (as of April each year)

8,411

9,465

9,200

9,200

9,300

8,411

9,465

9,200

9,200

9,300

7,800 8,000 8,200 8,400 8,600 8,800 9,000 9,200 9,400 9,600

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Asia to U.S. South Atlantic

Asia to U.S. North Atlantic

Average Vessel Size Asia-USEC

7Source: BlueWater Reporting (as of April each year)

4,875

5,207

5,399

5,200

5,347

4,896

5,154

5,304

5,126

5,444

4,500 4,600 4,700 4,800 4,900 5,000 5,100 5,200 5,300 5,400 5,500

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Asia to U.S. South Atlantic

Asia to U.S. North Atlantic

Biggest Ships by Carrier Asia-Pacific SW

8Source: BlueWater Reporting (as of April 2014)

6,103

10,516

8,9128,549

6,0766,429

4,685

6,625

5,231

7,712

2,716

5,794

9,516

6,003

7,538

1,512

4,433

5,675

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Biggest Ships by Carrier Asia-Pacific NW

9Source: BlueWater Reporting (as of April 2014)

8,514

5,342

4,117

6,119

7,410

5,867

8,575

5,594

8,142

7,121

8,063

4,250 4,338

2,169

4,864

9,527

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Biggest Ships by Carrier Asia-North Atlantic

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5,343

8,514

4,444 4,2104,532

4,247

5,883

4,706

5,452

8,142

5,766

8,748

5,271

6,976

4,254

5,4144,891

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Source: BlueWater Reporting (as of April 2014)

Biggest Ships by Carrier Asia-South Atlantic

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5,343

6,356

4,250 4,2104,532

4,247

5,883

4,706

5,452

7,523

5,766

8,748

5,271

6,976

4,254

5,4144,891

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Source: BlueWater Reporting (as of April 2014)

Implications of Big Ships on East Coast Ports• Longer turn times or delayed cargoreleases?• Can inland infrastructure keep up withsize of ships?• Will larger ships exacerbate equipmentissues?• Will chassis problems worsen?• Impact on shippers’ carrierdiversification?• Does risk for shippers rise with fewerships handling more of their cargo?

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Mega Ship Math Virginia Maritime Association May 8, 2014

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14,000 TEU

Big Ship Evolution – The Trickle Down Effect

8,000 TEU

4,500 TEU

5,000 TEU NYK CONSTELLATION – PANAMAX CLASS 4882 TEU Capacity, 650 Reefer Slots DWT – 65,867, LOA – 294.10 M (669 feet) Beam - 32.2 M (105 feet) , Height ? Draft - 13.5 M (44 feet) Containers Across - 11

12,000 TEU MSC FABIOLA – NPX CLASS 12,562 TEU Capacity, 650 Reefer Slots DWT – 65,867, LOA – 366 M (1,201 feet) Beam - 48.2 M (158 feet) , Height 195 - 210’ aprx. Draft - 13.5 M (44 feet) Containers Across - 15

8,000 TEU OOCL LONG BEACH – PPX CLASS 8063 TEU Capacity, 700 Reefer Slots DWT – 99,500, LOA – 323 M (1059 feet) Beam – 42.8 M (140 feet), Height ? Draft - 14 M (46 feet), Containers Across – 13

Post Panamas

New Panamax

Panamax

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Mega Vessel

18,000 TEU MAJESTIC MAERSK TRIPLE E CLASS

18,270 TEU Capacity, Reefer Slots DWT – 196,000, LOA – 399 M (1309 feet) Beam – 59 M (193.6 feet), Height – 73 M (239’ 6”) Draft - 14.5 M (48 feet) Containers Across - 23

E Class / Explorer Class Vessels

16,020 TEU CMA CGM ALEXANDER VON HUMBOLDT ULCV

CALSS 16,020 TEU Capacity , Reefer Slots 1,100 DWT – 157,092, LOA – 395 M (1296 feet) Beam – 54 M (177 feet), Height ? Draft – 16 M (52’ 6”) Containers Across - 21

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* From Liebherr Brochure

Typical Quayside Crane a. Gantry Span – 15 – 35 M ( 49 - 115)b. Outreach – Typically 12 to 15 TEUc. Backreach – 25 M (82 feet)d. Lift Height – 24 M (78’) aprxe. Clearance under Sill Beam 12 – 18 M (39’ – 59’)

Panamax Quayside Crane a. Gantry Span – 15 – 35 M (49 - 115 feet)b. Outreach – 30 to 40 M (98 to 131 feet)c. Backreach – 25 M (82 feet)d. Lift Height – 24 to 30 M (78’ to 98’)

Travel Speed – 25 M/min ( 82’/min)

SWL 40/50 T Single 65 T Twin

Post Panamax Quayside Crane a. Gantry Span 15 – 35 M (49 - 115 feet)b. Outreach 46 to 69 M (150’ to 226’)c. Backreach – 25 M (82 feet)d. Lift Height – 35 to 49 M (115’ to 161’)

Travel Speed – 45 M/min (147’/min)SWL 40/50 T Single 65 T Twin

Mega Max (SPP) Cranes a. Gantry Span 35 M (115 feet)b. Outreach 46 to 69 M (150’ to 226’)c. Backreach – 25 M (82 feet)d. Lift Height – 35 to 49 M (115’ to 161’)

Travel Speed – 45 M/min (147’/min)

SWL 65 T Twin 80 T Tandem

A – Gantry Span B – Outreach

C – Backreach D – Lift Height

E – Clearance under Sill Beam SWL – Lift Weight

Travel Speed partially determines lifts per hour

Bayonne Bridge

• Air Draft will be an issue

for some East Coast Ports

Adaptation from PANYNJ Slide

Getting out the gate

Thank you Thank you

SCIG is expected to

handle

approximately

570,800 TEUs

(twenty-foot

equivalent units)

By 2035, SCIG is

projected to handle

a maximum of 2.8

million TEUs.

BNSF Southern California Intermodal Gateway

Battle for Discretionary Cargo

LA/LB

OAK

Sea/Tac

Houston

Savannah

Norfolk

NY/NJ

Lazaro Cardenas

Prince Rupert

Eastern Canada

Depth 50’ or greater

Depth 45’ or less

Global

Terminal

NY& NJ RR

Carfloat Yard

Proposed Intermodal

Rail Facility

Additional Container

Terminal

Conrail Auto

Rail Terminal

BMW

Vehicle

Processin

g

PANYNJ Greenville Expansion Project

A B

Mega Ship Math Virginia Maritime Association May 8, 2014

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