Market situation Cereals mer… · EU MS exporting wheat 2011/12 & 5 average MY Average EU...

Market situationCereals

AGRI C 5Advisory Group on Cereals, Oilseeds and Proteins

30 March 2012

World cereal balance : IGC

373404

121159 172

137 131 (130)

378 (369)

1802 1799

1841 (1830)

1836 (1831)

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

World Ending Stocksof which 8 major exportersWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

Source: IGC Feb. report

World cereal prices since 30 August 2011 ($/t)

6/09/2

4/10/2

1/11/2

8/11/2

6/12/2

3/01/2

7/02/2

6/03/2

Wheat - Black Sea Milling - $ 275 Wheat - US SRW Gulf - $ 259 Wheat - FR Rouen - $ 281Maize - US 3YC Gulf - $ 274 Maize - FR Bordeaux - $ 282 Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen feed - $ 281

World wheat balance sheet: IGC

172199 196

4769 77 71 76 (74)

211 (204)

685678

695 (690)

645651 656

681 (681)

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

IGC: Wheat production forecastAll wheat

29 25 22 2314

EU Russia USA Australia Canada Ukraine Kazakhstan Argentina

2009 2010 (est.) 2011 (fcst.) Source: IGC Feb. report

Wheat export prices since 1/1/2007

Wheat - Canada CWRS St Lawrence - $ 366 Wheat - US HRW Gulf - $ 292Wheat - US SRW Gulf - $ 259 Wheat - Australia ASW Eastern States - $ 248Wheat - Argentina Trigo Up River - $ 258 Wheat - Black Sea Milling - $ 275Wheat - Black Sea Feed - $ 255

EU wheat export commitments 2011/12

2010/2011 Average 5MY trimmed avg 5MY 2011/2012

AVERAGE 5MY

TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY

MY 2010/11

MY 2011/12

WHEAT CUMULATED EXP

EU wheat import commitments 2011/12

Soft wheat 2011/12 Soft wheat 2010/11 soft wheat average 5MY soft wheat trimmed average

AVERAGE 5MY

TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY

MY 2011/12

MY 2010/11

WHEAT CUMULATED IMP

EU wheat exporting MS and destinationsMain EU-27 Common Wheat (incl. flour groats, ...) exporters and destination countries

6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 8.3 mio t

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

22.22.42.6

France 66% Germany 13% Romania 7% Lithuania 3% Utd. Kingdom 2% Spain 2%

Algeria Morocco Saudi Arabia Angola Egypt Sudan Cuba OthersSource:Eurostat

EU wheat exporting MS and destinationsMain EU-27 Common Wheat (incl. flour groats, ...) exporters and destination countries

Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 8.3 mio t

France 51% Germany 20% Romania 7% Hungary 4% Bulgaria 4% Poland 3%

Algeria Morocco Egypt Libya Iran South Africa Yemen OthersSource:Eurostat

EU MS exporting wheat2011/12 & 5 average MY

Average EU Common Wheat exports by Member State (incl. flour, groats …)

6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 8.8 mio t

France 50%

Germany 20%

Romania 7%

Hungary 4%

Bulgaria 4%

Poland 3%

Lithuania 3%

Latvia 2%

Belgium 2%

Others 5%

Source: Eurostat

EU Common Wheat exports by Member State (incl. flour, groats …) 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 8.3 mio t

France 65%

Hungary 2%Latvia 1% Belgium 1%

Utd. Kingdom 2%

Spain 2%

Germany 13%

Lithuania 3%

Romania 7%

Others 3%

Bulgaria 1%

Source: Eurostat

EU wheat export destinations

EU Common Wheat (incl. flour, groats ... ) export destinations6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 8.8 mio t

Algeria 18%

Morocco 10%

Egypt 9%

Libya 4%

Iran 4%

South Africa 3%

Yemen 3%Angola 3%

India 2%

Pakistan 2%

Senegal 2%

Others 34%

Ivory Coast 2%

Tunisia 2%

Cameroon 2%

Source: Eurostat

EU Common Wheat (incl. flour, groats ... ) export destinations6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 8.3 mio t

Algeria 30%

Morocco 12%

Egypt 4%

South Africa 2%

Ivory Coast 2%

Others 23%

Syria 2%

Libya 2%Senegal 2%Cameroon 2%

Norway 2%

Cuba 3%

Sudan 3%

Saudi Arabia 7%

Angola 4%Source: Eurostat

EU MS importing wheatEU Soft Wheat Imports by MS

Average from 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 2.5 mio t

Spain 40%

Italy 25%

Portugal 3%

Belgium 5%

Greece 8%

Utd. Kingdom 12%

Romania 2%

Others 5%

Source: Eurostat

EU Soft Wheat Imports by MS6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3 mio t

Spain 43%

Italy 28%

Netherlands 5%

Portugal 6%

Greece 6%

Utd. Kingdom 7%

Belgium 2%

Poland 1%

Others 2%

Source: Eurostat

EU wheat imports originsEU Soft Wheat Import Origins

Average from 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 2.5 mio t

Ukraine 33%

USA 23%

Canada 19%

Russia 15%

Kazakhstan 4%

Croatia 3%

Serbia 2%

Others 1%

Source: Eurostat

EU Soft Wheat Import Origins6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3 mio t

Ukraine 40%

Russia 35%

Canada 10%

USA 9%

Serbia 3%

Kazakhstan 2%

Others 1%

Source: Eurostat

World durum wheat balance: IGC

1.61.3 (1.2)

2.3 (2.3)

3738 38

36 (36)

37 (37)

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

3 Major exporters StocksCanadaWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

World durum wheat prices since 01/2007

Durum - US Minneapolis HADW - € 277 (20/3/2012) Durum - FR Port-La-Nouvelle - € 267Durum - IT Bologna - € 276 Durum - ES Average - € 267Wheat - FR Rouen - € 211

EU durum imports originsEU Durum Wheat Import Origins

Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 1 mio t

Canada 46%

USA 22%

Mexico 17%

Syria 4%

Kazakhstan 3%

Turkey 2%

Others 6% 0%

Source: Eurostat

EU Durum Wheat Import Origins6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 1 mio t

Canada 64%

USA 16%

Kazakhstan 1%Others 1%

Russia 1%

Argentina 3%

Mexico 5%

Australia 9%

Source: Eurostat

EU MS exporting durum wheatEU Durum Wheat Exports by MS

France 46%

Italy 22%

Spain 16%

Greece 10%

Hungary 1%

Cyprus 1% Belgium 1%

Others 1%

Bulgaria 2%

Source: Eurostat

EU Durum Wheat Exports by MS6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 0.8 mio t

France 64.5%Italy 22.5%

Austria 0.4%

Hungary 0.5%

Greece 1.2%

Spain 10.0%

Cyprus 0.4%Slovenia 0.2%

Others 0.2%

Source: Eurostat

World barley balance sheet: IGC

11 10 (9)

27 (26)

146 145

135135 (134)

135136 (136)

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

World Ending StocksEU ending stocksWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

Barley prices since 01/2007

Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen feed - € 210 Barley - UK FOB London feed - € no quotation Barley - FI Dlvd Naantali feed - € 169 Barley - Black Sea feed FOB - € 199Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen malting - € 247

EU barley export commitments 2011/12

2011/2012 2010/2011 Average 5MY trimmed avg 5MY

AVERAGE 5MY

TRIMMED AVERAGE

MY 2010/11

MY 2011/12

BARLEY CUMULATED EXP

EU barley exporting MSEU Barley and Malt Exports by Member State

Germany 20%

Belgium 19%

Romania 7%

Estonia 1%

Bulgaria 3%

Lithuania 3%

Denmark 4%

France 23%

Czech Republic 1%Hungary 1%

Sweden 2%

Finland 2%

Spain 4%

Utd. Kingdom 4%

Netherlands 4%

Others 2%

Source: Eurostat

EU Barley and Malt Exports by Member State6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3.5 mio t

Romania 15%

Germany 15%

Belgium 14%

Netherlands 3%Lithuania 3%

Utd. Kingdom 5%

Hungary 2%Finland 2%

Estonia 1%Others 3%

France 25%

Denmark 7%

Sweden 2%

Bulgaria 3%

Source: Eurostat

EU barley export destinations

EU Barley and Malt Export DestinationsAverage for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 3.5 mio t

Saudi Arabia 33%

Tunisia 5%

Venezuela 5%

Brazil 5%Japan 4%

China 4%

Jordan 4%

Morocco 3%

Russia 3%

Algeria 2%

Syria 2%

Others 30%

Source: Eurostat

EU Barley and Malt Export Destinations6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3.5 mio t

Saudi Arabia 34%

Algeria 9%

Russia 5%

Jordan 4%

Morocco 4%Venezuela 3%Japan 3%

Vietnam 3%Brazil 3%

Tunisia 3%

China 2%Nigeria 2%

Others 25%

Source: Eurostat

World maize balance sheet: IGC

134150 148

41 43 4329 20 (21)

126 (125)

797 800

779784

864 (861)

871 (867)

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

World Ending Stocksof which USWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

IGC: maize production forecast

65 5823 23

USA EU Brazil Argentine Ukraine

2007 2008 2009 2010 (est.) 2011 (fcst.) Source: IGC Feb. report

Maize export prices since 1/1/2007

Maize - US 3YC Gulf - $ 274 Maize - Argentina Feed Up River - $ 260Maize - Brazil Feed Paranagua - $ 258 Maize - Black Sea Feed - $ 270

EU Maize import commitments 2011/12

Maize other than seed 2011/12 Maize other than seed 2010/11

Maize other than seed average 5MY Maize other than seed - Trimmed Average

AVERAGE 5MY

TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY

MY 2010/11

MY 2011/12

MAIZE CUMULATED IMP

EU MS importing maizeMaize Imports (incl. processed products) by Member StateAverage for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 3.4 mio t

Spain 45%

Portugal 14%

Netherlands 9%

Italy 6%

Romania 2%

Slovenia 1%

Greece 2%

Belgium 2%

France 3%

Germany 4%

Cyprus 1%Bulgaria 1% Ireland 1%

Poland 1%

Others 2%

Utd. Kingdom 6%

Source: Eurostat

Maize Imports (incl. processed products) by Member State6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 2.5 mio t

Spain 36%

Portugal 20%

Netherlands 17%

Ireland 1% Romania 1%Others 2%

Germany 1%

Belgium 1%

Slovenia 3%

Utd. Kingdom 4%

Greece 4%

Italy 8%

Cyprus 1%

Poland 1%

Source: Eurostat

EU maize imports originsMaize (incl. processed products) - Origin of EU Imports

Brazil 55%

Argentina 20%

Serbia 9%

Ukraine 6%

Paraguay 4%

USA 2%

Croatia 2%

Others 2%

Source: Eurostat

Maize (incl. processed products) - Origin of EU Imports6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 2.5 mio t

Ukraine 44%

USA 19%

Russia 10%

Argentina 9%

Serbia 8%

Brazil 5%

Croatia 2%

South Africa 1% Others 2%

Source: Eurostat

EU maize importing MS and originsMaize (incl. processed products)

Main EU Importers and Country of Origin 6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 2.5 mio t

Spain 37% Portugal 20% Netherlands 17% Italy 8% Greece 4% Utd. Kingdom 4%

Ukraine USA Russia Argentina Serbia Brazil Croatia Others

Source:Eurostat

EU Commitments 2011/2012 (39 weeks)

Imports: 9.5 mio t (10.4 mio t in 2010/11; 6.3 mio t 2 years ago)4.9 mio t soft wheat 1.1 mio t durum wheat3.9 mio t maize 407 000 t barley

Exports: 17.6 mio t (21.2 mio t last year; 15.9 mio t 2 years ago)10.4 mio t soft wheat2.6 mio t barley in grain1.0 mio t durum wheat2.3 mio t maize

So far, the EU is a net cereal exporter of 8.1 mio t, against 10.8 miot last year and 9.6 mio t in 2009/2010.

Thank you for your attention!Balance sheet updates & market presentation

available:http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/balanc

e-sheets/index_en.htm

World wheat balance: USDA

202 199

3248 58 54 55 (54)

210 (213)610

682 686

694 (693)

641650 654

684 (680)

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

Source: USDA Mar. report

Wheat balance USDA vs. IGC (1)

686694

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

USDA World Production USDA World Consumption IGC World Production IGC World Consumption

Wheat balance USDA vs. IGC (2)

199210

78 74 79

7771 76

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

USDA World Stocks IGC World Stocks USDA 8 major exporters IGC 8 major exporters

USDA: Wheat production forecast

All wheat

30 25 23 2215

EU Russia USA Australia Canada Kazakhstan Ukraine Argentina

2009 2010 est 2011 fcst Source: USDA Mar. report

World maize balance: USDA

129149 144

41 43 4329 20 (20)

125 (125)

792799

771782

865 (864)

869 (868)

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

World Ending Stocksof which USWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

USDA: maize production forecast

65 6223 22

USA EU Brazil Ukraine Argentine

2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst

EU MS importing durumEU Durum Wheat Imports by MS

Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 1 mio t

Italy 76%

Belgium 11%

Netherlands 6%

Spain 2%

Germany 2%

Portugal 1%Poland 1%

Greece 1%

Source: Eurostat

EU Durum Wheat Imports by MS6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 1 mio t

Italy 81.3%

Belgium 10.9%

Utd. Kingdom 0.4%

Poland 0.4%

Netherlands 1.5%

Germany 5.1%

Greece 0.3%Others 0.1%

Source: Eurostat

EU durum export destinationsEU Durum Wheat export destinations

Algeria 36%

Tunisia 25%

Ivory Coast 7%

Turkey 5%

Saudi Arabia 3%

Senegal 3%

Mauritania 2%

Nigeria 2%

Others 17%

Source: Eurostat

EU Durum Wheat export destinations6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 0.8 mio t

Algeria 46%

Morocco 18%

Others 8%Croatia 1%

Senegal 1%

Nigeria 1%

Mauritania 1%

Switzerland 1%Ivory Coast 8%

Tunisia 15%

Source: Eurostat

Barley EU exporting MS and destinationsMain EU-27 Barley and Malt Exporters and Countries of Destination

6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 3.5 mio t

France 24% Romania 15% Germany 15% Belgium 14% Denmark 7% Utd. Kingdom 5%

Saudi Arabia Algeria Russia Jordan Morocco Venezuela Japan Others

Source:Eurostat

Barley EU exporting MS and destinationsMain EU-27 Barley and Malt Exporters and Countries of Destination

France 22% Germany 19% Belgium 19% Romania 7% Denmark 4% Spain 4%

Saudi Arabia Tunisia Venezuela Brazil Japan China Jordan Others

Source:Eurostat

US SRW wheat futures

CME wheat: open interest and net position of traders since 01/2011

WHEAT - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE0.0

4/01/2

/01/201

2/2011

1/03/2

/03/201

/04/201

/05/201

6/2011

5/07/2

/07/201

8/2011

8/11/2

/11/201

2/2011

3/01/2

/01/201

/02/201

ric to

Open Interest

Managed money and other rep. -Net positions

EU Milling Wheat Futures since 11/2010

CME maize futures since 01/2010

CME maize: open interest and positions of traders since 01/2011

CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE0.0

4/01/2

/01/201

2/2011

1/03/2

/03/201

/04/201

/05/201

6/2011

5/07/2

/07/201

8/2011

8/11/2

/11/201

2/2011

3/01/2

/01/201

/02/201

ric to

Open Interest

Managed money and other rep. -Net positions

EU maize futures since 01/2011

Market situation Cereals mer… · EU MS exporting wheat 2011/12 & 5 average MY Average EU...

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