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7/27/2019 Main NASA Technologies
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Nuke Newcome
703-684-2900
www.sra.com
www.uavforum.com
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From Science Fiction
The telescreen received and transmitted simultaneously
There was of course no way of knowing whether you were
being watched at any given moment It was even conceivable
that (the police) watched everybody all the time You had to
live in the assumption that every sound you made wasoverheard and every movement scrutinized.
George Orwell, 1984 (1949)
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To Todays Reality
The Washington Post26 Aug 2001 p.C2
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Lessons in Forecasting
Yesterdays outlandish predictions tend to become todaysmundane reality
- What would a cabbie of 1949 think of the 2001 photo?
You have to look backward to measure progress forward
- Change is seldom appreciated while it is happening
- Orwell was off by 17 years (1984 v. 2001) = 50%
Socio-economic factors govern technology progress
- Cameras in cabs driven by cost and frequency of crime
The future always holds wild cards
- Who forecast the appearance of the internet?
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Overview
Requirements (Environmental)
Emerging Technologies
Potential Customers
Technologies
Customer
Requirements
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Platform Environment Requirements
6 12 18 24 30 48 72 96 120
500K
400K
300K
200K
100K
Global HawkAltair
Pathfinder
BALLOONS
Helios
SATELLITES
PSEUDOLITES
NO-MAN ZONESOUNDING ROCKETS
MANNED AIRCRAFT
DC-8
P-3
ER-2WB-57
C-141
T-34
F/A-18
ENDURANCE (HRS)
ALTITUDE(FT)
BLAST
Condor
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DHS & NASA Platform Requirements
500K
400K
300K
200K
100K
CondorGlobal Hawk
AltairPathfinder
Helios
SATELLITES
PSEUDOLITES
NO-MAN ZONE
SOUNDING ROCKETS
MANNED AIRCRAFT
DC-8
P-3
ER-2WB-57
C-141
T-34
F/A-18
ENDURANCE (HRS)
ALTITUDE(FT)
NASA: Satellite Cal/Val
Diurnal Research
Mars Testing
DHS: Border/Port Patrol
Hazmat Response
BLAST
Condor
BALLOONS
6 12 18 24 30 48 72 96 120
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Technologies Overview
What is just over the horizon in:
Aerostructures
Power/Propulsion
Flight Controls
Sensors
Autonomous Capability
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Aerostructures
Autonomic (Self-Repairing) Materials
Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) microcapsules to heal cracks
Ionomer coatings to self-clean surfaces
Biologically active molecular arrays to regrow damage
Transgenetic Biopolymers
Bio-production of spider silk from goat milk (Biosteel)
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Transgenetic Biopolymers
Spider silk is
Strong: greater tensile strength than steels
Flexible: Can stretch 30x its length
Lightweight: 25% lighter than composites
Each goat produces 4-22 grams/day of silkprotein
Status
Over 150 genetically modified goats bred
Silk protein extraction process underdevelopment
SME: Dr. J. Turner, Nexia Biotechnologies
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Autonomic Materials
Status: NSF/USAF/Motorola funded research project
SME: Dr S. White, University of Illinois
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Power/Propulsion
Fuel Cells Mass specific power (hp/lb) approaching that of internal combustion
engines
Sources of fuel greatly expanded
Reformates of hydrocarbons
Byproduct (H2S) of oil and natural gas wells Electrolysis of water
- Increased reliability and lower maintenance cost due to lower parts count
Very low noise level = reduced acoustic signature
Very low vibration level
Triggered Isomer Heat Exchanger (TIHE)
Nuclear reaction short of fission; no particulate radiation
Candidate for combined turbine/TIHE cycle engine
Thermoelectric Generator Modules
2
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St 3 -1997 St 4 -1998 St 7 -1999 Stack 2000 Current
Max. Power: 37-41 kW 40 kW 50 -120 kW 80 -120 kW 102 kW
Power density:0.26 kW/l
0.16 kW/kg
0.77 kW/l
0.31 kW/kg
1.10 kW/l
0.47 kW/kg
1.44 kW/l
0.83 kW/kg
1.75 kW/l
1.25 kW/kg
Active area: 500 cm2 500 cm2 800 cm2 800 cm2 250 cm2
Pressure: 2.7 bar 2.7 bar 2.7 bar 1.5 - 2.7 bar 1.2-1.5 bar
Temperature: 80 C 80 C 80 C 80 C 80 C
Fuel Cells
GM progress in fuel cells approaching 1 hp/lb specific power
Specific Power 0.1 hp/lb 0.2 hp/lb 0.3 hp/lb 0.5 hp/lb 0.76 hp/lb
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PhotoApproved forPublicReleaseby USAF ASC/RAV
Document Number:ASC03-0896 Dated 04/22/2003
Triggered Isomer Heat Exchanger
Background
Isomers release energy (gamma rays) when
bombarded with x-rays
TIHE energy could heat the airflow going
into a turbine in place of burning JP
No particulate radiation occursAdvantages
No fuel combustion pollution
No moving parts
Extremely long endurance enabled
Status
UTexas triggered a Hafnium isomer sample
by dental x-rays in 1998
SME: Dr C. Collins, University of Texas
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Thermoelectric Generator Modules
Advantages
Converts waste heat to electricity
No moving parts
Small size (0.5g)
High power density (0.2 w/g)Status
Power density goal of 0.25w/g
Integration on micro air vehiclespending
SME: Dr. W. Ng, Techsburg
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Specific Power Trends
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Flight Controls
Shape Memory Alloys (SMAs) and Polymers (SMPs)
Ice-shedding leading edges
Camber-optimizing airfoils
Actuator-less control surfaces
Reconfigurable Flight Control Systems
Redundant hardware
Adaptive software
Neuroelectric control
Thought control
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Shape Memory Alloys & Polymers
Deforms with electricity, relaxes toremembered shape
Advantages:
- Optimizes airfoil for slow/fast
flight
- Reduces takeoff and landingdistances
- Extends range and endurance
- Compensates for damage
Status:
- DARPA Morphing Aircraft
Structures (MAS) and NASA/
Langley programs in progress
SME: E. Havens, Cornerstone
Research Group
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Neuroelectric Control
Pilots neuromuscular signals becomecontrol inputs
Advantages
Provides instantaneous, intuitive, control
Eliminates sticks, yokes, joysticks, mice
Learns patterns and responses over time
Adjusts to differences in pilots
Relearns to fly damaged aircraft in 1/6 sec
Status
Successfully tested in airliner simulator
SME: Dr. C. Jorgensen, NASA Ames
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Thought Control
Pilots EEG signals become control inputsvia Blue Tooth wireless
Advantages
Provides instantaneous, intuitive, control
Eliminates sticks, yokes, joysticks, mice Direct brain to computer interface
Status
MITs Mind Balance w/Cerebus
headset
Cyberkinetics Braingate system
Lab demo aimed at video game market
SME: E. Lalor, MIT Media Lab Europe
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Communication/Data Links
Film and Spray-on antennas
Covert, lightweight, low power, broadband (2000 MHz) RF
antenna
Reduces UAV weight by replacing dishes and gimbaled
mountings Eliminates blanking sectors
Provides one antenna for multiple functions (radio, data link,
GPS, IFF)
Open Question: damage toleranceMultiple Quantum Well (MQW) Retromodulators
Covert, low power, low weight, high rate (300 Mbps) data link
Avoids frequency congestion at RF
Open Question: range limitations
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Ground Terminal
(courtesy Terabeam Inc.)
Multiple Quantum Well Retromodulators
Laser activated shutter for opening data link
Advantages
Small size: 10g for 100 sector coverage
Low power: 1W per 10 Mbps required
Covert:
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Sensors
Imaging Motion detection/reporting without imaging (passive MTI)
Active imaging to incorporate vibration, polarimetry, andfluorescence
3-dimensional imaging
One image, multiple target perspectives
Signals
Full-body, conformal, broadband film/spray-on RF antennas
Chemical/Biological
Diazoluminomelanin (DALM) DNA on a chip organicsemiconductor
Laser induced fluorescence (LIF) real time, remote agentdetection
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Active Imaging
One Image, Multiple Target Perspectives
Polarimetry
Tank tracks Foliage penetration
Vibration
Engine running/stopped
Identification by engine modulation
Aimpoint refinement
Fluorescence
POL detection
Multi-Spectral
Camouflage detection Imaging
Coordinates for targeting
3D Imaging
Visual identification
Coordinates for targeting
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Replacing the Pilot?
Defining Autonomy
Human-Equivalent Computing
Speed
Memory
Algorithms ( = Thinking Patterns, Experience)
Ethics, Law of War, ROE, union resistance, etc.
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CREW SIZE TREND ON AIRLINERS
Crew Size Trend on Commercial Airliners
B-314 Clipper
L040 Constellation
B-707
B-727
B-757
0
1
2
3
45
6
7
1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 2025
Year of Introduction
Crew
Size
- Flight Mechanics
- Radio Operators
- Flight Engineers- Navigators
- Third Pilots
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Autonomy
Action
Knowledge
Information
Data
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Speed Growth Rate = 100 MIPS/decade
Computer Speed Trend
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20 years away from humans in MIPS and MB in a PC
Memory/Speed Growth Rate = 1 MB/MIP
Speed v. Memory Relationship
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Computer Cost Trends
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Computer Final Frontiers
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Human Equivalency
Blue Brain project by IBM and Ecole PolytechniqueFederale de Lausanne (EPFL)
- To simulate human brain down to molecular level
- Convergence of biological data and computer capabilities
Status: To be operational in 2015
SME: C. Peck, IBM
H. Markram, EPFL
PCs lag mainframes by 10-15 years, so
- Expect human equivalency in a PC by 2025-30
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How Fast Is Technology Adopted?
Evolution of Pilot Automation, from Demonstration to Production
Years
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20201900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20201900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Autopilot
Fly-By-Wire
Autonomous
Sperry Doolittle
Mercury Concorde
Condor Global Hawk
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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Film Antennas
Autonomic Materials
Transgenetic Biopolymers
Fuel Cells (MSP > 1hp/lb)
Thermoelectric Generators
Reconfigurable FCS (Software)
SMA Airfoils
MQW Retromodulators
Human-Equivalent Autonomy
Timeframes for Emerging Technologies
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Fuel Cell Propulsion
Shape Memory AlloyControl Surfaces
Embedded Antenna Film Skin
Spider Silk-BasedAerostructure
SMA DeicingLeading Edges
Embedded Skin Sensors
Camber-OptimizingAirfoil
The Smart UA of 2025
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Technology Driving Markets
Technology Driving Market(s)
Transgenetic Polymers (Biosteel) Pharmaceutical Industry
(nerve agent antidote)
Fuel Cells, Film Antennas Auto Industry
Thought Control Video Game Industry
Data Links Inflight Entertainment, Banking
Industries
Autonomy (Computers) PC and Video Game Industries
The aviation industry is not the driver for UA-relevant technologie
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UA Customer Forecast
but even if the technology becomes available, unmanned
aviation will need an economic reason to grow.
What will the customer base for unmanned aviation looklike in 2025 or 2050?
- How many?- When?
- Why?
Five markets:- Airlines and Cargo Carriers (Parts 121 and 135)
- General and Business Aviation (Part 91)
- Military
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Trend #1: IFR Traffic Forecast
Based on FY2000 FAA Forecast for FY2025
2000
Cargo, 15
Gen Av,
12
Airlines,
55
Military,
10
Business,
8
2025
Gen Av,
11
Cargo, 27Airlines,
52
Business,
5Military, 5
2050
Airlines, 43
Cargo, 43
Business,
3Military, 2
Gen Av, 9
T d #2 Milit UA G th T d
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FY2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
NumberofIFR
UAFielded
Percento
fAllMilitaryAirc
raft(16,0
50)
= 11.5% Growth/Decade
80190
630
1510
3.9%
9.4%
23%
50%
1.2%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Trend #2: Military UA Growth Trend
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Trend #3: Crew Size on Airliners
Crew Size Trend on Commercial Airliners
B-314 Clipper
L040 Constellation
B-707
B-727
B-757
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 2025
Year of Introduction
Crew
Size
- Flight Mechanics
- Radio Operators
- Flight Engineers
- Navigators
- Pilots by 2020?
- Third Pilots
F t UA G th T d ( 1)
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FY2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PercentofAircraftinFleet
3.9%
9.4%
23%
50%
1.2%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Forecast UA Growth Trend (v.1)
Cargo
Airlines
Gen Av/Biz
33%
23%
18%
Military
11.5% Growth/Decade
Forecast UA Growth Trend (v 2)
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FY2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PercentofAircraftinFleet
3.9%
9.4%
23%
50%
1.2%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Forecast UA Growth Trend (v.2)
Cargo
Airlines
Gen Av/Biz
Military33%
25%
17% Growth/Decade
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Positive Influences on UA Growth
Military - UA program trends- Pathfinding efforts (S&A, standards)
Cargo Airlines - Long term drive to reduce crew size
- Long, dull, no-pax missions intoClass C airport hubs
- Expressions of interest by airlines
General Aviation - NASA Personal Air VehicleExploration (PAVE)--2009 demo
- FAA expectation of mini-jets
- Flashover point in commute distance
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UA GROWTH BY IFR SEGMENT
2000 2025 2050 Rationale
Military 0.5% x 10%=
0.05%
23% x 5%=
1.2%
50% x 2%=
1%
2000-2015 DoD
programming
Cargo 0% x 15%=
0%
10% x 27%=
2.7%
50% x 43%=
22%
Crew size trend;
Fedex interest
Airlines 0% x 55%=
0%
0% x 52%=
0%
25% x 43%=
11%
Fallout from Cargo
Gen Aviation 0% x 12%=
0%
0% x 11%=
0%
33% x 9%=
3%
NASA PAVE
program matures;
Commuter interest
Business 0% x 8%=
0%
0% x 5%=
0%
33% x 3%=
1%
Fallout from NASA
PAVE
Total %
Unmanned 0.05% 3.9% 38%
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IFR TRAFFIC FORECAST WITH UA
Based on FAA Forecast for FY2025
Unmanned percentages of IFR traffic:
0.05% 3.9% 38%
2000
Cargo, 15
Gen Av,
12
Airlines,
55
Military,
10
Business,
8
2050
Airlines, 43
Cargo, 43
Business,
3Military, 2
Gen Av, 9
2025
Gen Av,
11
Cargo, 27Airlines,
52
Business,
5Military, 5
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Summary: Technology Trends
Away from hydraulics and combustion Toward all-electric
Away from connected, moving parts
Toward a single morphing part
Away from data acquisition and relay (data link intensive)
Toward data information knowledge action
(processor intensive)
Away from inorganic-based technologies
Toward bio-engineered components
Away from manned aircraft debuting the latest aviation
technologies
Toward unmanned aircraft assuming this role
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Conclusions
A number of highly innovative technologies applicable toUA will be emerging over the next 25 years
The aviation market will not be driving these technologies
Cargo airlines are the great commercial hope for UA
F th R di
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Christensen, Clayton. The Innovators Dilema. Harper Collins,
1997.
FAA Long-Range Aerospace Forecasts, FY2015, 2020 and 2025.
Infinity Point web magazine, www.infinitypoint.com
Kaku, Michio. Visions: How Science will Revolutionize the
21st Century. Anchor Books, 1997
Moravic, Hans. Robot. Cambridge Press, 1999.
OSD Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap, 2005-2030.
Further Reading
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Nuke Newcome
703-684-2900
www.sra.com
www.uavforum.com
NASA M hi Vid
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NASA Morphing Video
OVERVIEW
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OVERVIEW
F t f C ti
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Future of Computing
1 PHz
100 THz
10 THz
100 GHz
10 GHz
1 GHz
1 THz
ProcessorSpeed
Calculations/Seco
nd
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Solid State Transition Moletronics
0.1 micron limit to solid state devices
Human Brain
Pl tf R i t
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Platform Requirements
Recommended