Main NASA Technologies

7/27/2019 Main NASA Technologies

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Nuke Newcome

703-684-2900

www.sra.com

www.uavforum.com


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From Science Fiction

The telescreen received and transmitted simultaneously

There was of course no way of knowing whether you were

being watched at any given moment It was even conceivable

that (the police) watched everybody all the time You had to

live in the assumption that every sound you made wasoverheard and every movement scrutinized.

George Orwell, 1984 (1949)


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To Todays Reality

The Washington Post26 Aug 2001 p.C2


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Lessons in Forecasting

Yesterdays outlandish predictions tend to become todaysmundane reality

- What would a cabbie of 1949 think of the 2001 photo?

You have to look backward to measure progress forward

- Change is seldom appreciated while it is happening

- Orwell was off by 17 years (1984 v. 2001) = 50%

Socio-economic factors govern technology progress

- Cameras in cabs driven by cost and frequency of crime

The future always holds wild cards

- Who forecast the appearance of the internet?


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Overview

Requirements (Environmental)

Emerging Technologies

Potential Customers

Technologies

Customer

Requirements


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Platform Environment Requirements

6 12 18 24 30 48 72 96 120

500K

400K

300K

200K

100K

Global HawkAltair

Pathfinder

BALLOONS

Helios

SATELLITES

PSEUDOLITES

NO-MAN ZONESOUNDING ROCKETS

MANNED AIRCRAFT

DC-8

P-3

ER-2WB-57

C-141

T-34

F/A-18

ENDURANCE (HRS)

ALTITUDE(FT)

BLAST

Condor


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DHS & NASA Platform Requirements

500K

400K

300K

200K

100K

CondorGlobal Hawk

AltairPathfinder

Helios

SATELLITES

PSEUDOLITES

NO-MAN ZONE

SOUNDING ROCKETS

MANNED AIRCRAFT

DC-8

P-3

ER-2WB-57

C-141

T-34

F/A-18

ENDURANCE (HRS)

ALTITUDE(FT)

NASA: Satellite Cal/Val

Diurnal Research

Mars Testing

DHS: Border/Port Patrol

Hazmat Response

BLAST

Condor

BALLOONS

6 12 18 24 30 48 72 96 120


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Technologies Overview

What is just over the horizon in:

Aerostructures

Power/Propulsion

Flight Controls

Sensors

Autonomous Capability


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Aerostructures

Autonomic (Self-Repairing) Materials

Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) microcapsules to heal cracks

Ionomer coatings to self-clean surfaces

Biologically active molecular arrays to regrow damage

Transgenetic Biopolymers

Bio-production of spider silk from goat milk (Biosteel)


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Spider silk is

Strong: greater tensile strength than steels

Flexible: Can stretch 30x its length

Lightweight: 25% lighter than composites

Each goat produces 4-22 grams/day of silkprotein

Status

Over 150 genetically modified goats bred

Silk protein extraction process underdevelopment

SME: Dr. J. Turner, Nexia Biotechnologies


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Autonomic Materials

Status: NSF/USAF/Motorola funded research project

SME: Dr S. White, University of Illinois


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Power/Propulsion

Fuel Cells Mass specific power (hp/lb) approaching that of internal combustion

engines

Sources of fuel greatly expanded

Reformates of hydrocarbons

Byproduct (H2S) of oil and natural gas wells Electrolysis of water

- Increased reliability and lower maintenance cost due to lower parts count

Very low noise level = reduced acoustic signature

Very low vibration level

Triggered Isomer Heat Exchanger (TIHE)

Nuclear reaction short of fission; no particulate radiation

Candidate for combined turbine/TIHE cycle engine

Thermoelectric Generator Modules

2


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St 3 -1997 St 4 -1998 St 7 -1999 Stack 2000 Current

Max. Power: 37-41 kW 40 kW 50 -120 kW 80 -120 kW 102 kW

Power density:0.26 kW/l

0.16 kW/kg

0.77 kW/l

0.31 kW/kg

1.10 kW/l

0.47 kW/kg

1.44 kW/l

0.83 kW/kg

1.75 kW/l

1.25 kW/kg

Active area: 500 cm2 500 cm2 800 cm2 800 cm2 250 cm2

Pressure: 2.7 bar 2.7 bar 2.7 bar 1.5 - 2.7 bar 1.2-1.5 bar

Temperature: 80 C 80 C 80 C 80 C 80 C

Fuel Cells

GM progress in fuel cells approaching 1 hp/lb specific power

Specific Power 0.1 hp/lb 0.2 hp/lb 0.3 hp/lb 0.5 hp/lb 0.76 hp/lb


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PhotoApproved forPublicReleaseby USAF ASC/RAV

Document Number:ASC03-0896 Dated 04/22/2003

Triggered Isomer Heat Exchanger

Background

Isomers release energy (gamma rays) when

bombarded with x-rays

TIHE energy could heat the airflow going

into a turbine in place of burning JP

No particulate radiation occursAdvantages

No fuel combustion pollution

No moving parts

Extremely long endurance enabled

Status

UTexas triggered a Hafnium isomer sample

by dental x-rays in 1998

SME: Dr C. Collins, University of Texas


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Thermoelectric Generator Modules

Advantages

Converts waste heat to electricity

No moving parts

Small size (0.5g)

High power density (0.2 w/g)Status

Power density goal of 0.25w/g

Integration on micro air vehiclespending

SME: Dr. W. Ng, Techsburg


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Specific Power Trends


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Flight Controls

Shape Memory Alloys (SMAs) and Polymers (SMPs)

Ice-shedding leading edges

Camber-optimizing airfoils

Actuator-less control surfaces

Reconfigurable Flight Control Systems

Redundant hardware

Adaptive software

Neuroelectric control

Thought control


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Shape Memory Alloys & Polymers

Deforms with electricity, relaxes toremembered shape

Advantages:

- Optimizes airfoil for slow/fast

flight

- Reduces takeoff and landingdistances

- Extends range and endurance

- Compensates for damage

Status:

- DARPA Morphing Aircraft

Structures (MAS) and NASA/

Langley programs in progress

SME: E. Havens, Cornerstone

Research Group


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Neuroelectric Control

Pilots neuromuscular signals becomecontrol inputs

Advantages

Provides instantaneous, intuitive, control

Eliminates sticks, yokes, joysticks, mice

Learns patterns and responses over time

Adjusts to differences in pilots

Relearns to fly damaged aircraft in 1/6 sec

Status

Successfully tested in airliner simulator

SME: Dr. C. Jorgensen, NASA Ames


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Thought Control

Pilots EEG signals become control inputsvia Blue Tooth wireless

Advantages

Provides instantaneous, intuitive, control

Eliminates sticks, yokes, joysticks, mice Direct brain to computer interface

Status

MITs Mind Balance w/Cerebus

headset

Cyberkinetics Braingate system

Lab demo aimed at video game market

SME: E. Lalor, MIT Media Lab Europe


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Communication/Data Links

Film and Spray-on antennas

Covert, lightweight, low power, broadband (2000 MHz) RF

antenna

Reduces UAV weight by replacing dishes and gimbaled

mountings Eliminates blanking sectors

Provides one antenna for multiple functions (radio, data link,

GPS, IFF)

Open Question: damage toleranceMultiple Quantum Well (MQW) Retromodulators

Covert, low power, low weight, high rate (300 Mbps) data link

Avoids frequency congestion at RF

Open Question: range limitations


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Ground Terminal

(courtesy Terabeam Inc.)

Multiple Quantum Well Retromodulators

Laser activated shutter for opening data link

Advantages

Small size: 10g for 100 sector coverage

Low power: 1W per 10 Mbps required

Covert:


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Sensors

Imaging Motion detection/reporting without imaging (passive MTI)

Active imaging to incorporate vibration, polarimetry, andfluorescence

3-dimensional imaging

One image, multiple target perspectives

Signals

Full-body, conformal, broadband film/spray-on RF antennas

Chemical/Biological

Diazoluminomelanin (DALM) DNA on a chip organicsemiconductor

Laser induced fluorescence (LIF) real time, remote agentdetection


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Active Imaging

One Image, Multiple Target Perspectives

Polarimetry

Tank tracks Foliage penetration

Vibration

Engine running/stopped

Identification by engine modulation

Aimpoint refinement

Fluorescence

POL detection

Multi-Spectral

Camouflage detection Imaging

Coordinates for targeting

3D Imaging

Visual identification

Coordinates for targeting


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Replacing the Pilot?

Defining Autonomy

Human-Equivalent Computing

Speed

Memory

Algorithms ( = Thinking Patterns, Experience)

Ethics, Law of War, ROE, union resistance, etc.


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CREW SIZE TREND ON AIRLINERS

Crew Size Trend on Commercial Airliners

B-314 Clipper

L040 Constellation

B-707

B-727

B-757

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 2025

Year of Introduction

Crew

Size

- Flight Mechanics

- Radio Operators

- Flight Engineers- Navigators

- Third Pilots


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Autonomy

Action

Knowledge

Information

Data


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Speed Growth Rate = 100 MIPS/decade

Computer Speed Trend


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20 years away from humans in MIPS and MB in a PC

Memory/Speed Growth Rate = 1 MB/MIP

Speed v. Memory Relationship


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Computer Cost Trends


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Computer Final Frontiers


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Human Equivalency

Blue Brain project by IBM and Ecole PolytechniqueFederale de Lausanne (EPFL)

- To simulate human brain down to molecular level

- Convergence of biological data and computer capabilities

Status: To be operational in 2015

SME: C. Peck, IBM

H. Markram, EPFL

PCs lag mainframes by 10-15 years, so

- Expect human equivalency in a PC by 2025-30


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How Fast Is Technology Adopted?

Evolution of Pilot Automation, from Demonstration to Production

Years

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20201900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20201900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Autopilot

Fly-By-Wire

Autonomous

Sperry Doolittle

Mercury Concorde

Condor Global Hawk


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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Film Antennas

Autonomic Materials


Fuel Cells (MSP > 1hp/lb)

Thermoelectric Generators

Reconfigurable FCS (Software)

SMA Airfoils

MQW Retromodulators

Human-Equivalent Autonomy

Timeframes for Emerging Technologies


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Fuel Cell Propulsion

Shape Memory AlloyControl Surfaces

Embedded Antenna Film Skin

Spider Silk-BasedAerostructure

SMA DeicingLeading Edges

Embedded Skin Sensors

Camber-OptimizingAirfoil

The Smart UA of 2025


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Technology Driving Markets

Technology Driving Market(s)

Transgenetic Polymers (Biosteel) Pharmaceutical Industry

(nerve agent antidote)

Fuel Cells, Film Antennas Auto Industry

Thought Control Video Game Industry

Data Links Inflight Entertainment, Banking

Industries

Autonomy (Computers) PC and Video Game Industries

The aviation industry is not the driver for UA-relevant technologie


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UA Customer Forecast

but even if the technology becomes available, unmanned

aviation will need an economic reason to grow.

What will the customer base for unmanned aviation looklike in 2025 or 2050?

- How many?- When?

- Why?

Five markets:- Airlines and Cargo Carriers (Parts 121 and 135)

- General and Business Aviation (Part 91)

- Military


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Trend #1: IFR Traffic Forecast

Based on FY2000 FAA Forecast for FY2025

2000

Cargo, 15

Gen Av,

12

Airlines,

55

Military,

10

Business,

8

2025

Gen Av,

11

Cargo, 27Airlines,

52

Business,

5Military, 5

2050

Airlines, 43

Cargo, 43

Business,

3Military, 2

Gen Av, 9

T d #2 Milit UA G th T d


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FY2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

NumberofIFR

UAFielded

Percento

fAllMilitaryAirc

raft(16,0

50)

= 11.5% Growth/Decade

80190

630

1510

3.9%

9.4%

23%

50%

1.2%

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Trend #2: Military UA Growth Trend


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Trend #3: Crew Size on Airliners

Crew Size Trend on Commercial Airliners

B-314 Clipper

L040 Constellation

B-707

B-727

B-757

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 2025

Year of Introduction

Crew

Size

- Flight Mechanics

- Radio Operators

- Flight Engineers

- Navigators

- Pilots by 2020?

- Third Pilots

F t UA G th T d ( 1)


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FY2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

PercentofAircraftinFleet

3.9%

9.4%

23%

50%

1.2%

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Forecast UA Growth Trend (v.1)

Cargo

Airlines

Gen Av/Biz

33%

23%

18%

Military

11.5% Growth/Decade

Forecast UA Growth Trend (v 2)


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FY2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

PercentofAircraftinFleet

3.9%

9.4%

23%

50%

1.2%

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Forecast UA Growth Trend (v.2)

Cargo

Airlines

Gen Av/Biz

Military33%

25%

17% Growth/Decade


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Positive Influences on UA Growth

Military - UA program trends- Pathfinding efforts (S&A, standards)

Cargo Airlines - Long term drive to reduce crew size

- Long, dull, no-pax missions intoClass C airport hubs

- Expressions of interest by airlines

General Aviation - NASA Personal Air VehicleExploration (PAVE)--2009 demo

- FAA expectation of mini-jets

- Flashover point in commute distance


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UA GROWTH BY IFR SEGMENT

2000 2025 2050 Rationale

Military 0.5% x 10%=

0.05%

23% x 5%=

1.2%

50% x 2%=

1%

2000-2015 DoD

programming

Cargo 0% x 15%=

0%

10% x 27%=

2.7%

50% x 43%=

22%

Crew size trend;

Fedex interest

Airlines 0% x 55%=

0%

0% x 52%=

0%

25% x 43%=

11%

Fallout from Cargo

Gen Aviation 0% x 12%=

0%

0% x 11%=

0%

33% x 9%=

3%

NASA PAVE

program matures;

Commuter interest

Business 0% x 8%=

0%

0% x 5%=

0%

33% x 3%=

1%

Fallout from NASA

PAVE

Total %

Unmanned 0.05% 3.9% 38%


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IFR TRAFFIC FORECAST WITH UA

Based on FAA Forecast for FY2025

Unmanned percentages of IFR traffic:

0.05% 3.9% 38%

2000

Cargo, 15

Gen Av,

12

Airlines,

55

Military,

10

Business,

8

2050

Airlines, 43

Cargo, 43

Business,

3Military, 2

Gen Av, 9

2025

Gen Av,

11

Cargo, 27Airlines,

52

Business,

5Military, 5


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Summary: Technology Trends

Away from hydraulics and combustion Toward all-electric

Away from connected, moving parts

Toward a single morphing part

Away from data acquisition and relay (data link intensive)

Toward data information knowledge action

(processor intensive)

Away from inorganic-based technologies

Toward bio-engineered components

Away from manned aircraft debuting the latest aviation

technologies

Toward unmanned aircraft assuming this role


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Conclusions

A number of highly innovative technologies applicable toUA will be emerging over the next 25 years

The aviation market will not be driving these technologies

Cargo airlines are the great commercial hope for UA

F th R di


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Christensen, Clayton. The Innovators Dilema. Harper Collins,

1997.

FAA Long-Range Aerospace Forecasts, FY2015, 2020 and 2025.

Infinity Point web magazine, www.infinitypoint.com

Kaku, Michio. Visions: How Science will Revolutionize the

21st Century. Anchor Books, 1997

Moravic, Hans. Robot. Cambridge Press, 1999.

OSD Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap, 2005-2030.

Further Reading


49/53

Nuke Newcome

703-684-2900

www.sra.com

www.uavforum.com

NASA M hi Vid


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NASA Morphing Video

OVERVIEW


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OVERVIEW

F t f C ti


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Future of Computing

1 PHz

100 THz

10 THz

100 GHz

10 GHz

1 GHz

1 THz

ProcessorSpeed

Calculations/Seco

nd

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

19

18

17

16

15

14

13

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Solid State Transition Moletronics

0.1 micron limit to solid state devices

Human Brain

Pl tf R i t


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Platform Requirements

Documents

Main NASA Technologies