Machiel Lamers

Machiel LamersMachiel.lamers@maastrichtuniversity.nl

www.icis.unimaas.nl

Potential ICIS contribution WP600: Integrated Assessment Tools

Integration• Integrating research(ers)• Integrating perspectives of actors• Integrating concepts, models• Integrating results• Recommendations

WP 6: Preliminary overview• Task 1: Integrated GIS database NERSC• Task 2: Integrated participatory approach for

coordination of activities FEEM/CMCC• Task 3: Uncertainty dialogues ICIS• Task 4: Qualitative System Analysis ICIS• Task 5: Integrated Scenario Analysis ICIS• Task 6: Aggregated results and recommendations for

policy makers NERSC/ICIS

Societal randomness

inexactness

lack of observations/ measurements

practically immeasurable

reducible ignorance

indeterminacy

Natural randomness

Value diversity

Behavioural variability

conflicting evidence

measurableuncertainty

structural uncertainty

Technological surprise

irreducible ignorance

uncertainty due to

variability

uncertaintydue to limited

knowledge

TYPOLOGY OF SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY (van Asselt, 2000)

Crossing DomainsMan and wellbeing

Nature and Environment

Economy and welfare

wellbeing and welfare

man and

environment

environmentand

economy

Quantitative models and indicators: measure, estimate, calculate, monitor

Structural interface: agenda setting, visualisation, communication

Conceptual model: analysis, strategy development, strategy evaluation

3 Levels of QSA

Integrated scenario analysis• Integrate scenario results from various

sectorial studies, economic, environmental and social impact studies, and risk assessments

• Analyse implications from different perspectives, and different normative standards

Forecasting and BackcastingLooking ForwardWhat if . . . ?

Looking Backward How could . . . ?