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Integration Integrating research(ers) Integrating perspectives of actors Integrating concepts, models Integrating results Recommendations
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Potential ICIS contribution WP600: Integrated Assessment Tools
Integration• Integrating research(ers)• Integrating perspectives of actors• Integrating concepts, models• Integrating results• Recommendations
WP 6: Preliminary overview• Task 1: Integrated GIS database NERSC• Task 2: Integrated participatory approach for
coordination of activities FEEM/CMCC• Task 3: Uncertainty dialogues ICIS• Task 4: Qualitative System Analysis ICIS• Task 5: Integrated Scenario Analysis ICIS• Task 6: Aggregated results and recommendations for
policy makers NERSC/ICIS
Societal randomness
inexactness
lack of observations/ measurements
practically immeasurable
reducible ignorance
indeterminacy
Natural randomness
Value diversity
Behavioural variability
conflicting evidence
measurableuncertainty
structural uncertainty
Technological surprise
irreducible ignorance
uncertainty due to
variability
uncertaintydue to limited
knowledge
TYPOLOGY OF SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY (van Asselt, 2000)
Crossing DomainsMan and wellbeing
Nature and Environment
Economy and welfare
wellbeing and welfare
man and
environment
environmentand
economy
Quantitative models and indicators: measure, estimate, calculate, monitor
Structural interface: agenda setting, visualisation, communication
Conceptual model: analysis, strategy development, strategy evaluation
3 Levels of QSA
Integrated scenario analysis• Integrate scenario results from various
sectorial studies, economic, environmental and social impact studies, and risk assessments
• Analyse implications from different perspectives, and different normative standards
Forecasting and BackcastingLooking ForwardWhat if . . . ?
Looking Backward How could . . . ?
