M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Sch öpp, W. Winiwarter

M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes.

Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter

The CAFE baseline scenarios:

Key findings

Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5

2000 2010 2020

Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Loss in life expectancyattributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]

Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]

2000 2010 2020

Health-relevant ozone concentrations[SOMO35, ppb.days]

2000 2010 2020

Rural concentrations Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Premature deaths attributable to ozone[cases/year]

2000 2010 2020

Provisional calculations with 50*50 km resolution

Acid deposition to forests

Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

Percent of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads

2000 2010 2020

Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas

Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

Semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical loads [km2]

France Germany Ireland Netherlands UK

2000 2010 2020

Excess of critical loads for eutrophication

Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

eden UK

2000 2010 2020

Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads for eutrophication

Conclusions

• With decreasing pollution, also impacts are expected to decline in the future.

• However, problems will not be entirely resolved:

– PM remains serious (~5 months life expectancy loss in 2020)

– Ozone:

• Remains a significant cause for premature deaths (Several 1000 cases in 2020)

• Vegetation damage: Wide-spread violations of AOT40 critical level will prevail

– Acidification: Will not disappear, mainly due to NH3

– Eutrophication remains unresolved

SO2 emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt]

NewMember

States

Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes

NEC emission ceiling

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NOx emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt]

New Member

States

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NOx emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-25

Power generationPower generation

Industrial combustionIndustrial combustion

Industrial processesIndustrial processes

Domestic

DomesticGasoline cars

Gasoline cars

Diesel carsDiesel cars

Off-road

Diesel heavy duty veh.

Off-road

2000 2020

VOC emissions“With climate measures” scenario [kt]

New Member

States

Power generation Industry HouseholdsTransport Agriculture Solvents Waste National Emission Ceilings

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NH3 emissions “Pre-CAP reform” scenario [kt]

NewMember

States

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

PM2.5 emissions by sector “With climate measures” scenario [kt]

NewMember

States

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Contribution to primary PM2.5 emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-15

Industrial combustionIndustrial combustion

Industrial processesIndustrial processes

Diesel exhaust, cars

Diesel exhaust, carsDiesel exhaust, HDT

Non-exhaust Non-exhaust

Off-road Off-road

Agriculture Agriculture

Domestic, wood stoves

2000 2020

Conclusions

• While accounting for continued economic growth …

• National emissions of air pollutants will decrease up to 2020: SO2 -65%, NOx-50%, VOC -45%, NH3 -4%, PM2.5 -45%

• Due to structural changes and emission control legislation

• Relevance of sectors for further measures will change.

– Small combustion sources!

– Industrial processes, solvents!

– Off-road vehicles and machinery!

• Emissions from maritime activities will surpass land-based emissions of EU-25

M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Sch öpp, W. Winiwarter

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