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Strategy | Energy | Sustainability
Lifecycle analysis for automotive powertrain selection
Eloise CottonFuture Powertrain Conference
5 March 2020
E4tech: Strategy | Energy | Sustainability
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• International consulting firm, offices in UK and Switzerland
• Focus on sustainable energy, including electric vehicles, biofuels and sustainability assessments
• Established 1997, always independent
• Deep expertise in technology, business and strategy, market assessment, techno-economic modelling, policy support…
• Spectrum of clients from start-ups to global corporations
Countries E4tech is or has been active in
What is life cycle analysis?
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• LCA identifies, quantifies and assesses the impacts of a product/process cradle-to-grave.
• For vehicles, this means from the production of a vehicle, fuel production, vehicle use and disposal.
• Impacts can be GHG impacts, as well as many others including acidification, water use, eutrophication etc.
Vehicle construction emissions (gCO2eq./vehicle)
Overall vehicle lifecycle emissions
(gCO2eq./km)
Fuel production emissions (gCO2eq./MJfuel)
Fuel combustion/use emissions (gCO2eq./MJfuel)
Vehicle maintenance emissions (gCO2eq./vehicle)
Vehicle EoL emissions (gCO2eq./vehicle)
Vehicle cyclekm driven / vehicle
Fuel cycleFuel use MJ/km
Veh
icle
cyc
leFu
el c
ycle
How has LCA thinking been applied to current vehicles policy?
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Primary energy
Fuel production
Fuel use/ combustion
Vehicle construction
Raw materials
Veh
icle
cyc
le
Fuel cycle
Fuel distribution
Vehicle end-of-life
Recycle RecoveryWaste
management
Legend:
Landfill
Legislation has treated the vehicle and fuel cycle separately
RED/REDII
EU ETS
Current policy implemented at each part
of supply chain
Obligation on:
Energy supplier
RED/REDII
Fuel Quality Directive
Fuel economy(CO2 standards)
Current vehicle policy: Tank-
to-Wheel
Euro emissions standards
OEM
EoLDirective
EoLDirective
There is an increasing move to assess and compare vehicles on a full lifecycle basis
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Regulation (EU) 2019/631: “The Commission shall no later than 2023 evaluate the possibility of developing a common Union methodology for the
assessment and the consistent data reporting of the full life-cycle CO2 emissions of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles that are placed on the Union market. The Commission shall transmit to the European Parliament
and to the Council that evaluation, including, where appropriate, proposals for follow-up measures, such as legislative proposals”
The DG CLIMA vehicle LCA study will consider the whole life of the vehicle, well-to-wheels and embedded emissions/environmental impacts
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Ve
hic
le c
ycle
Production Use End-of-life
Fuel/Electricity Production
Fuel cycle• Well-to-Wheel Analysis• Includes embodied emissions• Covers 17 impact categories and 12
pollutants
Broadly, for gasoline ICE vehicles today, the vehicle cycle is 25%, fuel production is 15% and fuel use is 60% of the lifecycle GHG emissions
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Source: E4tech analysis
207198
186171
181
0
50
100
150
200
250
Gasoline Gasoline - E10 blend(corn)
Gasoline - E10 blend(LC corn)
Gasoline - E20 blend(LC corn)
Gasoline - E10 blend(efuel)
Current Current 2030 2030 2030
Vehicle lifecycle GHG emissions (gCO2e/km)
Vehicle production and EoL Fuel production Fuel use Vehicle maintenance
GHG emissions from vehicle construction are expected to fall in the future, reducing variations between vehicle types…
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• BEVs/FCEVs higher construction emissions
• Opportunities to reduce GHG emissions e.g. cleaner energy, recycling, improving energy density
Vehicle cycle GHG emissions for different powertrains
(2018) (2030)
H2 tankBattery
Source: Wallington et al. 2018, based on the GREET21 model by Argonne National Laboratory, updated 2018
… But for most powertrains, the majority of lifecycle GHG emissions are due to the fuel cycle
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• Fuel decarbonisationresults in vehicle cycle forming higher share of GHGs
• BEVs/FCEVs lifecycle emissions lower than ICE, depending on fuel source
Source: E4tech analysis
207 198 186 171 181164 158
141 130 137
186
319
94
173 172
9765
138
6781
48
123
5774
43
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Gas
olin
e
Gas
olin
e -
E10
ble
nd
(co
rn)
Gas
olin
e -
E10
ble
nd
(LC
co
rn)
Gas
olin
e -
E20
ble
nd
(LC
co
rn)
Gas
olin
e -
E10
ble
nd
(ef
uel
)
Gas
olin
e
Gas
olin
e -
E10
ble
nd
(co
rn)
Gas
olin
e -
E10
ble
nd
(LC
co
rn)
Gas
olin
e -
E20
ble
nd
(LC
co
rn)
Gas
olin
e -
E10
ble
nd
(ef
uel
)
Hyd
roge
n (
SMR
)
Hyd
roge
n (
EU g
rid
)
Hyd
roge
n (
Swed
ish
grid
)
Hyd
roge
n (
SMR
)
Hyd
roge
n (
EU g
rid
)
Hyd
roge
n (
SMR
+CC
S)
Hyd
roge
n (
win
d)
EU g
rid
Swed
ish
grid
EU g
rid
Win
d
EU g
rid
Swed
ish
grid
EU g
rid
Win
d
Current 2030 Current 2030 Current 2030 Current 2030 Current 2030
ICE (Seg. C) ICE Hybrid (Seg. CD) FCEV (Seg. C) BEV (Seg. CD) BEV (Seg. AB)
gCO
2e/k
m
Vehicle lifecycle GHG emissions (gCO2e/km)
Vehicle production and EoL Fuel production Fuel use Vehicle maintenance
LCAs help understand impact hotspots across a vehicle’s full lifecycle and highlight areas where improvements can have the greatest impact
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• Move to vehicle electrification highlights importance of improvements in vehicle and fuel production
• Fuel cycle improvements key for ICE
Source: E4tech analysis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Gas
olin
e
Gas
olin
e -
E10
ble
nd
(co
rn)
Gas
olin
e -
E10
ble
nd
(LC
co
rn)
Gas
olin
e -
E20
ble
nd
(LC
co
rn)
Gas
olin
e -
E10
ble
nd
(ef
uel
)
Gas
olin
e
Gas
olin
e -
E10
ble
nd
(co
rn)
Gas
olin
e -
E10
ble
nd
(LC
co
rn)
Gas
olin
e -
E20
ble
nd
(LC
co
rn)
Gas
olin
e -
E10
ble
nd
(ef
uel
)
Hyd
roge
n (
SMR
)
Hyd
roge
n (
EU g
rid
)
Hyd
roge
n (
Swed
ish
grid
)
Hyd
roge
n (
SMR
)
Hyd
roge
n (
EU g
rid
)
Hyd
roge
n (
SMR
+CC
S)
Hyd
roge
n (
win
d)
EU g
rid
Swed
ish
grid
EU g
rid
Win
d
EU g
rid
Swed
ish
grid
EU g
rid
Win
d
Current 2030 Current 2030 Current 2030 Current 2030 Current 2030
ICE (Seg. C) ICE Hybrid (Seg. CD) FCEV (Seg. C) BEV (Seg. CD) BEV (Seg. AB)
Relative contribution of each lifecycle stage to total lifecycle GHG impactVehicle production and EoL Fuel production Fuel use Vehicle maintenance
Implications of LCA approach in policy
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• Vehicle manufacturing and fuel production are done by separate entities – therefore should remain separately regulated
• Fuel suppliers can increase proportion of renewable fuel.
• Fuel supplier extended to electricity and hydrogen providers
• Ensure additional, renewable electricity is used in transport
• Vehicle manufacturers can improve efficiency, vehicle emissions, vehicle lifetime, recyclability etc.
• Ensure all powertrain types are incentivised to improve these metrics.
• e.g. current regulation focused on tailpipe CO2 emissions do not apply to BEVs ; better metric for BEV efficiency could be km/kWh.
• Policy drives vehicle changes and uptake (e.g. subsidies, emission standards etc.) and if informed by vehicle lifecycle LCAs, policy can promote the most optimum option, which may vary by geography!
E4tech – strategic thinking in sustainability
For more information please visit our website:
www.E4tech.com
Or contact us in London or Lausanne:
E4tech (UK) Ltd
83, Victoria StreetLondon SW1H 0HW
United Kingdom
+44 (0)20 3008 6140
enquiries@e4tech.co.uk
E4tech Sàrl
Av. Juste-Olivier 21006 Lausanne
Switzerland
+41 (0)21 331 15 70
enquiries@e4tech.ch
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