Strategy | Energy | Sustainability

Lifecycle analysis for automotive powertrain selection

Eloise CottonFuture Powertrain Conference

5 March 2020

E4tech: Strategy | Energy | Sustainability

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• International consulting firm, offices in UK and Switzerland

• Focus on sustainable energy, including electric vehicles, biofuels and sustainability assessments

• Established 1997, always independent

• Deep expertise in technology, business and strategy, market assessment, techno-economic modelling, policy support…

• Spectrum of clients from start-ups to global corporations

Countries E4tech is or has been active in

What is life cycle analysis?

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• LCA identifies, quantifies and assesses the impacts of a product/process cradle-to-grave.

• For vehicles, this means from the production of a vehicle, fuel production, vehicle use and disposal.

• Impacts can be GHG impacts, as well as many others including acidification, water use, eutrophication etc.

Vehicle construction emissions (gCO2eq./vehicle)

Overall vehicle lifecycle emissions

(gCO2eq./km)

Fuel production emissions (gCO2eq./MJfuel)

Fuel combustion/use emissions (gCO2eq./MJfuel)

Vehicle maintenance emissions (gCO2eq./vehicle)

Vehicle EoL emissions (gCO2eq./vehicle)

Vehicle cyclekm driven / vehicle

Fuel cycleFuel use MJ/km

Veh

icle

cyc

leFu

el c

ycle

How has LCA thinking been applied to current vehicles policy?

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Primary energy

Fuel production

Fuel use/ combustion

Vehicle construction

Raw materials

Veh

icle

cyc

le

Fuel cycle

Fuel distribution

Vehicle end-of-life

Recycle RecoveryWaste

management

Legend:

Landfill

Legislation has treated the vehicle and fuel cycle separately

RED/REDII

EU ETS

Current policy implemented at each part

of supply chain

Obligation on:

Energy supplier

RED/REDII

Fuel Quality Directive

Fuel economy(CO2 standards)

Current vehicle policy: Tank-

to-Wheel

Euro emissions standards

OEM

EoLDirective

EoLDirective

There is an increasing move to assess and compare vehicles on a full lifecycle basis

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Regulation (EU) 2019/631: “The Commission shall no later than 2023 evaluate the possibility of developing a common Union methodology for the

assessment and the consistent data reporting of the full life-cycle CO2 emissions of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles that are placed on the Union market. The Commission shall transmit to the European Parliament

and to the Council that evaluation, including, where appropriate, proposals for follow-up measures, such as legislative proposals”

The DG CLIMA vehicle LCA study will consider the whole life of the vehicle, well-to-wheels and embedded emissions/environmental impacts

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Ve

hic

le c

ycle

Production Use End-of-life

Fuel/Electricity Production

Fuel cycle• Well-to-Wheel Analysis• Includes embodied emissions• Covers 17 impact categories and 12

pollutants

Broadly, for gasoline ICE vehicles today, the vehicle cycle is 25%, fuel production is 15% and fuel use is 60% of the lifecycle GHG emissions

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Source: E4tech analysis

207198

186171

181

0

50

100

150

200

250

Gasoline Gasoline - E10 blend(corn)

Gasoline - E10 blend(LC corn)

Gasoline - E20 blend(LC corn)

Gasoline - E10 blend(efuel)

Current Current 2030 2030 2030

Vehicle lifecycle GHG emissions (gCO2e/km)

Vehicle production and EoL Fuel production Fuel use Vehicle maintenance

GHG emissions from vehicle construction are expected to fall in the future, reducing variations between vehicle types…

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• BEVs/FCEVs higher construction emissions

• Opportunities to reduce GHG emissions e.g. cleaner energy, recycling, improving energy density

Vehicle cycle GHG emissions for different powertrains

(2018) (2030)

H2 tankBattery

Source: Wallington et al. 2018, based on the GREET21 model by Argonne National Laboratory, updated 2018

… But for most powertrains, the majority of lifecycle GHG emissions are due to the fuel cycle

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• Fuel decarbonisationresults in vehicle cycle forming higher share of GHGs

• BEVs/FCEVs lifecycle emissions lower than ICE, depending on fuel source

Source: E4tech analysis

207 198 186 171 181164 158

141 130 137

186

319

94

173 172

9765

138

6781

48

123

5774

43

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Gas

olin

e

Gas

olin

e -

E10

ble

nd

(co

rn)

Gas

olin

e -

E10

ble

nd

(LC

co

rn)

Gas

olin

e -

E20

ble

nd

(LC

co

rn)

Gas

olin

e -

E10

ble

nd

(ef

uel

)

Gas

olin

e

Gas

olin

e -

E10

ble

nd

(co

rn)

Gas

olin

e -

E10

ble

nd

(LC

co

rn)

Gas

olin

e -

E20

ble

nd

(LC

co

rn)

Gas

olin

e -

E10

ble

nd

(ef

uel

)

Hyd

roge

n (

SMR

)

Hyd

roge

n (

EU g

rid

)

Hyd

roge

n (

Swed

ish

grid

)

Hyd

roge

n (

SMR

)

Hyd

roge

n (

EU g

rid

)

Hyd

roge

n (

SMR

+CC

S)

Hyd

roge

n (

win

d)

EU g

rid

Swed

ish

grid

EU g

rid

Win

d

EU g

rid

Swed

ish

grid

EU g

rid

Win

d

Current 2030 Current 2030 Current 2030 Current 2030 Current 2030

ICE (Seg. C) ICE Hybrid (Seg. CD) FCEV (Seg. C) BEV (Seg. CD) BEV (Seg. AB)

gCO

2e/k

m

Vehicle lifecycle GHG emissions (gCO2e/km)

Vehicle production and EoL Fuel production Fuel use Vehicle maintenance

LCAs help understand impact hotspots across a vehicle’s full lifecycle and highlight areas where improvements can have the greatest impact

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• Move to vehicle electrification highlights importance of improvements in vehicle and fuel production

• Fuel cycle improvements key for ICE

Source: E4tech analysis

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Gas

olin

e

Gas

olin

e -

E10

ble

nd

(co

rn)

Gas

olin

e -

E10

ble

nd

(LC

co

rn)

Gas

olin

e -

E20

ble

nd

(LC

co

rn)

Gas

olin

e -

E10

ble

nd

(ef

uel

)

Gas

olin

e

Gas

olin

e -

E10

ble

nd

(co

rn)

Gas

olin

e -

E10

ble

nd

(LC

co

rn)

Gas

olin

e -

E20

ble

nd

(LC

co

rn)

Gas

olin

e -

E10

ble

nd

(ef

uel

)

Hyd

roge

n (

SMR

)

Hyd

roge

n (

EU g

rid

)

Hyd

roge

n (

Swed

ish

grid

)

Hyd

roge

n (

SMR

)

Hyd

roge

n (

EU g

rid

)

Hyd

roge

n (

SMR

+CC

S)

Hyd

roge

n (

win

d)

EU g

rid

Swed

ish

grid

EU g

rid

Win

d

EU g

rid

Swed

ish

grid

EU g

rid

Win

d

Current 2030 Current 2030 Current 2030 Current 2030 Current 2030

ICE (Seg. C) ICE Hybrid (Seg. CD) FCEV (Seg. C) BEV (Seg. CD) BEV (Seg. AB)

Relative contribution of each lifecycle stage to total lifecycle GHG impactVehicle production and EoL Fuel production Fuel use Vehicle maintenance

Implications of LCA approach in policy

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• Vehicle manufacturing and fuel production are done by separate entities – therefore should remain separately regulated

• Fuel suppliers can increase proportion of renewable fuel.

• Fuel supplier extended to electricity and hydrogen providers

• Ensure additional, renewable electricity is used in transport

• Vehicle manufacturers can improve efficiency, vehicle emissions, vehicle lifetime, recyclability etc.

• Ensure all powertrain types are incentivised to improve these metrics.

• e.g. current regulation focused on tailpipe CO2 emissions do not apply to BEVs ; better metric for BEV efficiency could be km/kWh.

• Policy drives vehicle changes and uptake (e.g. subsidies, emission standards etc.) and if informed by vehicle lifecycle LCAs, policy can promote the most optimum option, which may vary by geography!

E4tech – strategic thinking in sustainability

For more information please visit our website:

www.E4tech.com

Or contact us in London or Lausanne:

E4tech (UK) Ltd

83, Victoria StreetLondon SW1H 0HW

United Kingdom

+44 (0)20 3008 6140

enquiries@e4tech.co.uk

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Av. Juste-Olivier 21006 Lausanne

Switzerland

+41 (0)21 331 15 70

enquiries@e4tech.ch

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