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STRATEGICWARGAMING
Strengtheningyourstrategies
byreadingthemindsofyourcompe?tors
Contents
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com
Introduc?on–WhyWarGaming?
WhatisWarGaming?
TheApproach–When?,Who?,How?
Whatyougetattheend?
2
DEMISTYFYINGWARGAMING
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 3
Howareyoupreparedfor“Whatif”?
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 4
• Doweknowwhattoexpectfromourcompe2tors?
• Arewepreparedfortheirmovesorcountermoves?
• HowdoweknowourPlanis‘bulletproof’?
• DoeseveryoneunderstandhowtoexecutethePlan?
5©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com
Ifsomethinggoeswrong,itmostlyhappens
because:
• Wrongassump9onsaboutthemarket
or
• Compe9torsdidsomethingthatwedidn’texpect
The(compe??ve)worldisfullofsurprises
Overlookingmarketdynamicsorcompe??vemovescan
happentoanyone…
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 6
CompanyPerformancePlanning-Reality
“Here’salaw-of-physicsrule:Thereisonly,always,exactly
100%marketshareinanymarket”1)
1) Question What You “Know” About Strategy, Mark Chussil, hbr.org
7
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
“Forecas9ng”bytheeachPlayer
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Whathavereallyhappened
CompanyA
CompanyB
CompanyC
CompanyD
CompanyEΣ2015=118%!
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com
• Thecompe99veperspec9veisquiteeasilyoverlookedindecisionmaking.
• Internaldiscussionsfocusmoreonbudgets,deadlinesorexecu?on,butwhatother
playersmaydoisnotconsideredwithsuchacen?on.
It’seasytobedeceivedduringstrategicplanningandasresultto
overlookcompe??vesitua?on
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com
Over-op9mism/Wishfulthinkingprevails
• "Wewillwin!”
Intui9onoremo9ontakeover
“Thiscan’tbetrue!”,“Iwillshowthemwhorulesinthemarket”“Wehaveinvestedinthisbrandsomuch”
ManagerialBiases
Evolu9onofpreviousPlans
Repeat,repeatandexpectdifferentresultsWehavealwaysworkedthatwayandit
works”
SWOTanalysisjustto9ckthebox
orworse-usedforpoli2calagenda!
Rou?ne
TargetsfromtheTop
Frommyboss,boss'sboss,shareholdersetc.“YouhavetosellX,make$xxx”
Financedrivenplanning
SpreadsheetsandP&LtemplatesruleBoVomlineasastar2ngpoint
InternalProcesses
8
Decisionmakinginbusinessisahumanac?vity
Ra9onalthinkingisusuallythe9poftheiceberg.Individuals’backgroundsandtheirpersonal
driversdoaffecttheorganiza?on’sbehavior.
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com
WarGaming,throughitsuniquerole-playingprocess,coversbothaspects:observed
behavioraswellasinternalmo?va?onaldrivers
Mo9va9on ObservedBehavior
ManagementDrivers CurrentStrategy
ManagementAssump?ons Capabili?es
Tab.Porter’sComponentsofCompe2torAnalysis
9
WemostlylookattherightsideofPorter’sComponentsof
Compe?tors’Analysis(whattheyDOandwhattheyCANDO)
…buthowoPendowelookatinternalmo9va9on(i.e.internalculture,valuesystem,leaders’background,commitmentstoinvestorsetc.)?Theseaspectscangiveyoumorehintsonthefuturemovesthanjustpuremarketfacts!
COMPETITOR’SFUTURESTRATEGY
WHATISWARGAMING?
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 10
Themethodusedbymilitaryforcenturies
Ini?allybacleswerewononlybypowerand
dominance.
Commandersmastermindsweredevelopedby
experienceinthebaclespaidbythebloodoftheir
soldiers.
Soonespionageandintelligencebegantoplayan
increasinglyimportantrole.
Kriegsspiel("warplay”)–originofWarGaming,first
createdin1812,wasasystemusedfortrainingofficers
inthePrussianandGermanarmies.
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com
Andalthoughtoday,armiesdevelopedsophis?cated
computersimula?ons,s?llthewargamingsand
tablesareusedinopera?onswiththebelieve“that
sweatandtearsinawargamewerepreferableto
bloodandtearsonthebaDlefield”.
11
It’snotonlyarmywhoprac?cesimula?ons/rehearse
Whydotheyrehearse?
! Toprac?ceownprepara?ons
! Togetfamiliarwithstage,equipmentoropponent
! Toknowwhattodoifsomethinggoeswrong
! Collectfeedbackandcorrectac?ons
! Developnewskills
! Bringnewideashowtoperform
! Releasethestress
ULTIMATELY:ForbeVerperformance!©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com
Sparringinmarshalarts
PilotsorracingdriversonsimulatorsActors,dancersonthestage
12
WhatisBusinessWarGaming?
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 13
WarGamingsallowtoiden9fyrealbaVlegrounds
andprepareyouforcompe99vemoves.
Itisaveryclevermethod,whereyourTeamgets
intoshoesofkeymarketplayerstoanswerakey
ques?on“Whatwilltheydo?”.
WarGamingaimstoiden?fythestrategic
goalsofyourkeycompe9tors,theirkey
ini9a9vesplannedforthenext1-2years,
aswellaspoten9alreac9onstoyour
company’splans.
Mostcommon:basedonknownbehaviour
“Ithinktheywilldothisandthis,becausethisis
howthey
usuallydo.”
Thinkfromtheirperspec9ve:
“IfIwerethem,Iwoulddothisandthis,becauseit
makessense.”
Understandingtheirinternalmo9ves:
“IfIwerethem,Iwoulddothisandthis,becauseit
makessenseto
THEM.”
Conven?onalApproachvs.WarGaming
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com
WarGamingWorkshopincreasesrealismofthecompe99vethinking
ThekeyQues?on
“Whatwilltheydo?”
canbeansweredindifferentways.
SWOT WARGAME
14
It’snotonlyaboutyourCompe?tors
DuringtoWarGamingyoucanalsodetect
theBlindSpotsofyourstrategy,overlooked
duringplanningprocess.
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com
JustaskREDTeams(playingyour
compe?tors)toaVacktheBLUETeam
(Yourcompany).
Theywillquicklyfindyourweaknesses!!*
*Some2meswecallthemSacredCowsorElephantsintheRoom–nobodywantstotouchthem.15
WarGamingisabouttheTeamwork
Youcancreatethemostsophis?cated,computer-basedandexpensivemathema?cal
modelsbuttheycannotfullyexplaindecisionmakinginbusiness.
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com
Therefore,theplayersofWarGamingshouldbe
theoneswhopar9cipateindecisionsand
execu9onoftheplan.
Webelievethatinbusiness,asinbaVles,Situa?on
Analysis,StrategyCrea?on,Ac?onPlanningand
Execu?onsareHUMANACTIVITIES.
Andlastbutnotleast:
ajoint“PLAY”willputeveryoneonthesame
pageandwillmakethemsupportfinal
strategy.16
THEAPPROACH
When?,Who?,How?
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 17
WhentoplayWarGames?
YouhaveaPlan(fornewproductorservice,ornewcampaign)andyouneedtoknow:
• Howkeyplayerswillreact?• HowshouldweprotectourPlan?
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 18
Whenyouworkonstrategyorthemarket
condi?onsarechangingandyouneedtoknow:
• Themarketlandscapeandkeycompe?tors
strategies
• Howtostayaheadofthecompe??on?
“LandscapeWorkshop” “Crash-TestWarGame”
WhenNOTtoplay?
� Youalreadyknowtheplansofyourcompe9tors
(minditcouldbeillegal)
� It’stoolatetochangethePlan.Youaretooclosetothelaunchorexecu?onoftheplan
� Youarenotauthorizedtocallforchangeoftheplan(ifyouarenot,youneedasponsorwhoisincontrol).
� Fortac9cspurpose(e.g.nego?a?ons)
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 19
Whoshouldplay?
GroupSetup
Teammembersresponsiblefortheplanandexecu?onofthestrategy
Thepeoplewhofacethecompe99ononthedailybasis(mosto]enfieldsalesopera2ons)Otherfunc9onsrepresenta?ves(R&D,Produc2on,Legal,ProcurementandYES–Finance)
4-5peopleperCompe?tor
Quali9esofthepeople
Ac?veandopinionated(notshybutalsonottooaggressive)
Takepeoplewhousedtoworkfor/withourcompe?tors
Nojunioremployees
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 20
TheProcess&Outcome
Theamountofinforma2oninourpossessionwillnotchangebecausewerunWarGames–itwillbethesame.Thedifferenceishowyouuseitandwhowillpar9cipate.
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 21
03!WorkshopDay2:
Strategyrefinement
Responsetomajorthreats
Strategyrefinement
Con?ngencyPlans
Priori?es
02!WorkshopDay1:
RedTeaming
Compe?tors’role-playing
Compe?tors’Profiles
Compe?tors’StrategicGoals
&Ini?a?ves
KeyThreats&Baclegrounds
01!Pre-WorkshopInput
Compe?tors’Dossier
Keymarketinforma?on&
Dynamics
Management’sviewpoints
CurrentStrategicPlan
Theworkshopendsupwithtwomaincomponents:
•TheCompe?tors’StrategicDirec?ons(whatdotheywanttoachieveandhow?)
and
•Ac?onableideasforstrengtheningyourstrategyagainstmajorthreats.
Whatwillyougetattheend?
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 22
Throughaquickandeasyprocess:
� Iden9fiedfuturerisksandopportuni9es,
� Realis9cassessmentofyourplans
� Refinedcurrentstrategiesandcon9ngencyplans
� Agreatermutualunderstanding,teambondingandtalent
recogni9on
� Long-las9ngunderstandingofcompe9torsthusbeVer
results
…andsomefun,too.
Foodforthoughts
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com
TimothySpallspenttwoYEARS
learningtopaintlikeTurnerin
ordertoplayhimin“Mr.Turner”
CharlizeTherongained15kg
forherroleinthefilm
“Monster”.
DawidOgrodnik,methis
protagonist,spent1yearon
screenplay,lost10kgfor“Chce
siężyć”(LifeFeelsGood)
Andyou,howmuch9medoyouspenttogetundertheskinofyour‘enemy’?
23
JUST2DAYS…
…canmakeadifference.
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 24
THANKYOU
Contactme:
GrzegorzDobrucki
gdobrucki@LeadiumConsul?ng.com
+48697243632
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 25
AboutLeadiumConsul?ng
GraduatedfromWarsawSchoolofEconomicsIstartedmy
professionalcareerinMarketResearchbothonagencyandclient
sides(telecom,FMCG).
Awer5yearsdealingwithdifferentanaly?calmethodologiesI
wantedtocombinethemwithmycrea?veskillsthroughbrand
management.Iwasfortunateenoughtomanagethebrandslocally
inPolandandHolland,aswellasonthegloballevel.Forover5
yearsIworkedwitharemarkableinterna?onalcollec?veinGlobal
BrandTeamsinHeadquartersofJapanTobaccoInterna?onal(JTI),
the3rdbiggesttobaccocompanyglobally,knownforsuchbrands
asCamel,Winston,Mevius,Benson&HedgesorLD.Ialsohave2
yearsexperienceoftheglobalFormula1sponsorshipprogram(PR
andpromorelated).
Forlast8yearsbeforefoundingLeadiumConsul?ngIhadlead
StrategicMarke9ngfunc9onsofJTIinPolandandGermany,
whereIwasresponsiblefordevelopmentofPorxolio,Brandand
TradeStrategies.Mybesttakeoutfromthisperiodisaconvic?on
that“it’snotabigthateatssmall”andthatunconven?onalapproachisthewaytobeatcompe?tors.
InfoundingLeadiumConsul?ng,Iwantedtobringtolifemystrong
believesthat:
• thecompe??vestrengthsoftheorganiza?oncomenotonly
fromfinancialpowerorexecu?onalexcellence,buttoagreat
extendfromsmartstrategicthinkingandtherefore
• thereisalwaysawaytooutsmartcompe9tors.
ThesebelievesareattheheartofhowLeadiumConsul?ngwantsto
supporttheClients.Ourambi?onistos?mulateandfacilitatetheir
strategicthinkingprocesseswithul?mateobjec?vetoformulate
SmartBusinessStrategies.
***
WarGamingWorkshopisaperfectexampleofthisapproach.It’s
notdesignedtotellorganiza?onswhattodoincaseoffireorhowtoreadacrystalball.It’sratheraself-discoveryprocesswhenthroughreadingmindsofthecompe?torstheclient’steamscan
thinkhowtoformulatestrategiesandoutmaneuveradversaries.
©2016GrzegorzDobrucki,LeadiumConsul?ng.com 26
GrzegorzDobrucki,founderofLeadiumConsul?ng
Marke?ngprofessionalwith20+yearsof
experienceacrossarangeofmarke?ngdisciplines
onlocalandinterna?onallevels. !
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