War Gaming - American Red · PDF file“War Gaming” is the art of simulating moves and counter moves in a variety of settings. “War Games” allow decision makers to consider

Copyright 2013, Logical Management Systems, Corp., all rights reserved

“War Gaming” Identifying possible futures and how to deal with them


450 sheep leap to their deaths in Turkey

ISTANBUL, Turkey (AP) — First one sheep jumped to its death. Then stunned Turkish shepherds, who had left the herd to graze while they had breakfast, watched as nearly 1,500 others followed, each leaping off the same cliff, Turkish media reported.

In the end, 450 dead animals lay on top of one another in a billowy white pile, the Aksam newspaper said. Those who jumped later were saved as the pile got higher and the fall more cushioned, Aksam reported.

"There's nothing we can do. They're all wasted," Nevzat Bayhan, a member of one of 26 families whose sheep were grazing together in the herd, was quoted as saying by Aksam.

The estimated loss to families in the town of Gevas, located in Van province in eastern Turkey, tops $100,000, a significant amount of money in a country where average GDP per head is around $2,700.

"Every family had an average of 20 sheep," Aksam quoted another villager, Abdullah Hazar as saying. "But now only a few families have sheep left. It's going to be hard for us." Copyright 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. Source: www.usatoday.com/news/offbeat/2005-07-08-sheep-suicide_x.htm


“War Gaming” – Defined

“War Gaming” is the art of simulating moves and counter moves in a variety of settings. “War Games” allow decision makers to consider proactively how different organizations may react to disruption/change and each other. “War Game” scenarios allow us to describe the forces that are operating and enable the use of judgment.


"War Gaming" differs from the typical emergency drill, in that it is not based on a "problem - solution" linear process; but rather on nonlinear response and shaping of potential future horizons.

"War Gaming" focuses on analyzing decision making, issues identification and how the future can be potentially shaped.

“War Gaming” – Defined


We think we can manage by depicting extreme events.

We are convinced that our plans will work.

We don’t listen to advice about what we shouldn’t do.

We assume that performance can be measured.

We don’t appreciate that what’s artificial and arbitrary (demonstrated proficiency) isn’t reality.

We are taught linear thinking – problem to solution.

Six Mistakes We Make in Exercising Plans


Typical Exercise “U” Shaped Curve Exercise Start Exercise Mid-Point Exercise End

Things are getting bad!

Things are getting worse!

Have we hit bottom yet?

Must have we are on the road to recovery!

Back to normal! We are so good!


“War Gaming” – Typical Approach


Governmental Plans and Actions

State Federal Local

New Agencies

New Regulations

Indirect Actions

Indirect Reactions

Direct Actions

Direct Reactions

Your Organization’s Plans and Execution

Things You Control – Things You Do Not Control

Your Plans

Their Plans Their Information Their Goals Their Reactions

Vision &

Grand Strategy Strategic Plans

Operational Projects and

Programs

Tactical Execution

Private Sector Plans and Actions

Business Unit Corporate Department

Private Sector

Govt. Sector

Your Information Your Goals Your Actions


“War Gaming” – Scenario Development Process

Define: Focal Issue, Question or Decision & Relevant Timeframe.

Review Past Events & Alternative Interpretations; Project Future Forward (Plausible Scenarios).

Identify Driving Forces

Identify Critical Uncertainties

Develop Plausible Scenarios

Discuss Implications & Paths

?


“War Gaming” Simulations

Scenario Development is a starting point

History and Current Events

Forward Inferences Opacity & Causality

Range of Plausible Futures

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

How might forces play out to get us from here to a range of futures?

Time


Exercise # 1

What words describe your organization’s internal: Risks, threats, hazards, vulnerabilities? Strengths? Weaknesses? Opportunities?


Exercise # 2

What words describe your organization’s external: Risks, threats, hazards, vulnerabilities? Strengths? Weaknesses? Opportunities? Exposures?


What’s missing from simulations? Assumes that your current strategy will work


Shapeshifting: Nonlinear evolution of events in combination with reactions to events.

Nonlinearity: evolution creates change, collateral factors come into play, (uniqueness is created in the way that evolution occurs).

Reactivity: evolution is affected by reaction to change.

Consequences: long lasting effects; not readily apparent.

First Step – Assessment


Exercise # 3

Who will America’s primary enemy be a decade from now?

So, what would you do Contingency Planner?

Scenario # 1

Scenario # 2

Scenario # 3


Exercise # 3

Who will be your primary competitor be a decade from now?


Scenario # 1

Scenario # 2

Scenario # 3


Key focal point: What are the key factors in our external environment and how much can we control them?

Question # 1: Where are we?

Questions

Key focal point: Build a snapshot of how your organization’s activities (internal environment) are impacted at present.

Question # 2: Where are we?

Key focal point: List your key challenges and threats.

Question # 3: Where are we going?

Key focal point: What are our strengths and needs? How does this event impact our key activities?

Question # 4: Where can we go?


Exercise # 3

Who will America’s primary enemy be a decade from now?


Scenario # 1

Scenario # 2

Scenario # 3

Why should the country have an enemy?

Where’s the problem?

Will the U.S. stop its activist meddling?


Exercise # 3


Scenario # 1

Scenario # 2

Scenario # 3

Where will our competitors come from?


Will the markets change our offerings?

Who will be your primary competitor be a decade from now?

Second Step – Managing Risk


Exercise # 4

Where will terrorists strike next?


Scenario # 1

Scenario # 2

Scenario # 3


Key focal point: Build assumptions, potentials, etc., assess what the future situation might look like.

Question # 5: Where might we go?

Questions

Key focal point: Create a pyramid of objectives; redefine your business; set functional objectives.

Question # 6: Where do we want to go?

Key focal point: What will be the effect of new external forces? What assumptions can we make about future changes?

Question # 7: What do we have to do?

Key focal point: Act to fill the gaps. Conduct an opportunity-problem feasibility analysis; risk analysis assessment; resource-requirements assessment. Build action program proposals.

Question # 8: What could we do?


Exercise # 4

Where will terrorists strike next?


Scenario # 1

Scenario # 2

Scenario # 3

Will religious fundamentalism fragment the US?

What are the problem areas?

Will the U.S. be drawn into a middle east conflict?

Third Step – Effective Decision Making


Exercise # 5

What happens if the world’s fiat monetary system collapses?


Scenario # 1

Scenario # 2

Scenario # 3


Key focal point: Classify strategy and program objectives; make explicit commitments; adjust objectives.

Question # 9: What should we do?

Questions

Key focal point: Evaluate the impact of new programs.

Question # 10: How can we do it?

Key focal point: Monitor external environment. Analyze fiscal and physical variances. Conduct an overall assessment.

Question # 11: How are we doing?

Key focal point: Revise strategy and program objectives as needed; revise explicit commitments as needed; adjust objectives as needed.

Question # 12: What’s not working?


Exercise # 5

What happens if the world’s fiat monetary system collapses?


Scenario # 1

Scenario # 2

Scenario # 3

Why should the monetary system collapse?


Will there be inflation or deflation?


"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing.

If you can fake that, you've got it made!“

Groucho Marx


Suggested Actions

Preemptive Proactive Reactive

Heightened Awareness or Reactive and Backward Looking

Anticipates Change

Recognizes complexity & interconnectivity

Research focuses on long term trends, drivers, issues

Expanded knowledge base

Not process dependent

Alignment – SP, BC, RM, CI

Recognizes Change

Causal focus overlooks opacity, complexity & interconnectivity

Research – tactical trends, drivers, issues

Knowledge: “Cylinders of Excellence”

Process focused

Alignment – “Cylinders of Excellence”

Process is means to an end “Mission Critical”

Fails to ask: “Is the process still relevant?”

Research – prescriptive, little creative problem solving

Knowledge: potentially inaccurate “False Positives”

Alignment – “Defined Boundaries”


Geary W. Sikich Principal Logical Management Systems, Corp.

www.logicalmanagement.com

[email protected]

[email protected]

+1 (219) 922-7718

Do not say anything, unless what you are going to say is more beautiful than silence (Arabic proverb)

Nothing is certain, but many things are reasonably probable

Documents

War Gaming - American Red · PDF file“War Gaming” is the art of simulating moves and counter moves in a variety of settings. “War Games” allow decision makers to consider