View
1
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
Leading Acquisition Series: Leading in Permanent WhitewaterSteve Firestone, Ph. D.Defense Systems Management CollegeDAUNovember 4, 2020
• Steve Firestone, Ph. D.• Intermittent Professor – DAU, ALD instructor• Associate Professor/Director of M.A. in Organizational
Leadership Program – Regent University• Retired Naval Aviator – C130s, SH60Bs, T34s• U.S. Fleet Forces Command (USFF)• Joint Forces Staff College (JFSC)
• My experience in permanent whitewater• Naval Aviation and USFF • Crisis Action Team Lead• Personal life
Today’s Presenter
2
VUCA Defined
3
Volatile
Uncertain
Complex
Ambiguous
The environment requires you to react quickly and adaptively to ongoing changes that are unpredictable and out of your control
Not enough information; the environment demands that you take action without certainty
The environment is dynamic with many interdependencies, not all of which may be known; cause and effect are frequently not obvious, multiple causes are in play
The environment is unfamiliar and outside of your and other’s experience
Introduction
4
“The illiterate of the 21st Century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.”
~ Alvin Toffler
Source: Alvin Toffler (1984). Future Shock Bantam Books
Your ability to adapt to the VUCA world is what will make a crucial difference to
where you find yourself, even just five years from now
Objectives
• Define the concepts of permanent whitewater and VUCA• Describe the VUCA environment• Discuss ways to navigate the VUCA environment• Determine new strengths needed to succeed in a VUCA world• Present a tool for you to use to succeed in this era of permanent
whitewater/VUCA
5
Desired Work and Life Environment
6
While we would like things to be calm and predictable . . .
Actual Work and Life Environment
Instead of calmness,
7
we get whitewater
Poll 1
• Which slide do you think represents your life better?
8
A B
Poll 2
• Which slide do you think represents your work better?
9
A B
Permanent Whitewater
10
Question 1
• Can you think of examples of VUCA in the world around us (i.e. world and national events)?
• Volatile• Uncertain• Complex • Ambiguous
• Please type them in the chat window.
11
Why VUCA is Important to the Acquisition Community
12
Question 2
• Can you think of examples of VUCA in your organization?
• Volatile• Uncertain• Complex • Ambiguous
• Please type them in the chat window.
• Did any of these overlap with the example(s) you thought of in the previous question on VUCA in the world?
13
Historical Perspective
14
+
-
Rate
of C
hang
e
Time
“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential. So, we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st Century – it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).”
~Ray Kurzweil
The Changing Workplace
• Large scale changes that have occurred throughout time have impacted everyone in the organization:
15
Industrial Age
Workers are cogs in a lineSystematic
Task FocusedLeader plans/ thinks;
workers do
Information Age
Information = PowerTeam focused
Authority still lies with the “leader”
Knowledge Age
Ideas = PowerInnovation focused
CollaborationInformation and
leadership are shared
The World Today vs. Yesterday
16
Permanent Whitewater• VUCA = Permanent Whitewater• Calm water is a thing of the past• Leaders must adapt
17
VUCA in Defense Acquisition
18
Factors driving VUCA in Defense
Acquisition
Technology:• Disruptive change• Breakthrough
innovation• Artificial
intelligence• 3D printing• IoT (Internet of
Things)
Policies/procedures:• Section 809• Middle tier of acquisition• Other transaction
authority• Rapid prototyping/fielding
of capability to warfighter• Back to Basics
Environment:• Natural disasters• Climate change
National Defense:• New patterns of
world conflict• Dysfunction of
national governments• Supply chain
globalization and interdependence
• Scarcity of rare earth minerals
• Depletion of home-grown STEM resources
• VUCA can best be described as four different environments in a matrix with two dimensions:
1. How much do you know about the situation?2. How much can you predict the results of your actions?
The VUCA Environment
19
How
wel
l can
you
pre
dict
the
resu
lts o
f you
r act
ions
?
How much do you know about the situation? +
+
- -
volatilityExample: Prices fluctuate in your supply chain after a natural disaster impacts one of your suppliers
uncertaintyExample: A new vendor’s product launch muddies the future of the vendors you use on your program and the market in general
complexityExample: You are working foreign military sales with many countries, all with unique regulatory environments, tariffs, and cultures
ambiguityExample: You decide to use an immature technology on your program to speed up delivery to the warfighter
Question 3
• What are some ways you can better operate and lead in the VUCA environment?
• Please type your examples in the chat window.
• Listen Well• Think Divergently• Celebrate Success
20
Leadership Challenges in a VUCA World
• Only 18% of leaders are “very capable” of leading in a VUCA world*
21
*Source: Survey of 13,124 leaders conducted jointly by Development Dimensions International and The Conference Board
‒ Anticipating and reacting to the nature and speed of change
‒ Acting decisively without always having clear direction and certainty
‒ Navigating through complexity, chaos, and confusion
‒ Maintaining effectivenessdespite constant surprises and a lack of predictability
Challenges in a VUCA World
• Percent of HR professionals who report leaders are incapable of meeting the challenges of:
22
‒ Volatility – 40%*‒ Uncertainty – 35%*‒ Complexity – 36%*‒ Ambiguity – 31%*
*Source: Survey of 13,124 leaders conducted jointly by Development Dimensions International and The Conference Board
Volatility Challenges• Volatility - exponential increase in the type, speed, volume, and scale
of change• Challenges you might face in a volatile environment:
• Pace of change is faster than our ability to respond• Pace of change requires accelerated decision-making• Change is large-scale, occurs suddenly, requiring an urgent response• Constant feeling of being overwhelmed, stressed, anxious, and unprepared• VUCA and hierarchical command and control structures do not work well together
23
Uncertainty Challenges
• Uncertainty - lack of predictability with issues and events
• Challenges you might face in an uncertain environment:
• Inability to clearly understand a situation• Insufficient information• Too much information• Failure to understand the outcome of
events
24
Complexity Challenges• Complexity - confounding of issues and the associated chaos that ensues• Challenges you might face in a complex environment:
• Mandates or pressure from above
• Problems are complex and interdependent
• Doing more with less• Conflicting expectations• No time for reflection
25
Ambiguity Challenges• Ambiguity - mixed meanings surrounding conditions and causes of the who,
what, when, where, how, and why behind the things that are happening that are unclear, and hard to ascertain
• Challenges you might face in an ambiguous environment:• Failure to understand the significance of an event• High risk of misinterpreting events and responding inappropriately• Being too far removed
from the source and context of the events
• Having to act based on limited understanding
26
Navigating VUCA
27
Build the skills to be on top of your game, be in great condition, and have high energy levels
Volatility
Vision • Relentlessly communicate
your vision and lead people towards it
• Believe in yourself and others
• Ensure your team’s efforts are aligned and focused on the right areas
Uncertainty
Understanding• Ask questions that challenge
the status quo• Collaborate widely and
encourage multiple perspectives
• Be empathetic, get where people are coming from–their hopes, fears, and desires
• Explore new ideas, reflect, seek constructive criticism
Complexity
Clarity• Continuously focus on
desired outcomes• Be aware of the limits
imposed on you by old, comfortable ways of thinking
• Use your intuition, trust your gut, and your experience
• Approach problems from a systems thinking perspective
Ambiguity
Agility• Adapt quickly to changing
circumstances and make decisions with confidence
• Fail fast and learn from your mistakes
• Value social networks as well as hierarchy
• Set people free to do great work
• Know your limits, be comfortable that you just don’t know
Poll 3
• Which one of the four environments of VUCA are you the least comfortable with?
VolatilityUncertaintyComplexityAmbiguity
28
The VUCA Paradox
• We cannot perfectly predict the future.
• But we need to be able to make sense of and understand the future in order to help our organizations to thrive in this VUCA world.
• As shown earlier there is a tool to help you succeed in the VUCA environment.
29
Volatility Vision
Uncertainty Understanding
Complexity Clarity
Ambiguity Agility
Closing Thoughts/Questions?
• How can you use this understanding of VUCA and the tools presented to deal with permanent whitewater in your role in the acquisition community?
• This webcast was based on a class in our Acquisition Leadership Development (ALD) program.
• Any Questions?• Please reach out to me with
any other questions.• stephen.firestone@dau.edu
30
Recommended