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www.lupis.eu LUPIS contract number GOCE-036955
Land Use Policies and Sustainable
Development in Developing Countries (LUPIS)
Floor Brouwer (LEI, Wageningen UR)
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
EU FP6 Project “LUPIS”
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in
Developing Countries
15 partners, 11 Countries
Feb 2007 – March 2011
Co-ordination
Floor Brouwer
(LEI, part of Wageningen UR)
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Improve knowledge of the impact that different land use policies will have on the
sustainable development of developing countries
Develop integrated assessment tools for application by scientists
in a selected number of developing countries
Building blocks Tools developed in SENSOR and SEAMLESS
Developed in European context
Test applicability in developing countries
Key objectives
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
What is the impact on sustainable development of implementing...
(Tunisia)... Water and soil conservation policy
(Kenya)... land privatization policy
(India)... organic farming policies
(China)... water pollution control policies
(Indonesia) ... land conversion control policies
(Mali)... plans towards expanding land under irrigation
(Brazil)... land and forest conservation policies
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Economic impact
Scenarios_1 & 2_2015 : impacts of increase of pricing Water by 13 %
Farm income decline at 8% in the public irrigation system and at 25% in the private system.
This deterioration of income due to the increase of water pricing and the cost of pumping
Farm Income (DT/ha)
-6%-8%
-21% -25%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
FARM_1 FARM_2 FARM_3 FARM_4
(DT/ ha)
baseline_2015
Scenario_1&2_2015
Water pricing policy assessment in Tunisia
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Environmental impact
WATER USE (m3/ha)
-11%-5%
-18%
-15%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
FARM_1 FARM_2 FARM_3 FARM_4
wa
te
r u
se
(m
3/h
a)
baseline_2015
Scenario_1&2_2015SOIL EROSION (T/ha)
- 7%
- 6%~-1%
- 3%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
FARM_1 FARM_2 FARM_3 FARM_4
So
il e
ro
sio
n (
T/h
a)
baseline_2015
Scenario_1&2_2015
The increase price of water irrigation has resulted in a significant reduction at 18% of the water consumption in the public system more than the private at the 11%
Pricing of irrigation water is an important policy to reduce the level of erosion to 7% in the public system more than the private to 3%
Water pricing policy assessment in Tunisia
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Research Question
What is the impact of forest conservation policies
along road BR-163 in Mato Grosso and Pará on
sustainable development?
Brazil
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Study area
BR 163
BR 163
Santarém
BR 163
Cuiabá
Atlantic Ocean
A
AM
MT
AC
PA
RO
RRAP
TO
MA
BC
Roads
Water
Case study’ municipalities
BR 163’s Influence area
Brazilian Amazon Forest
Deforestation arch
Brazil
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Selected Policies
Forest Code - Existing policy, regulates deforestation in rural properties
in the Amazon region. In Amazon forest 80% of the property is preserved for
forest conservation, in Cerrado vegetation 35%, but in reality less than these
% are effectively protected (weak governance). In 2011 this Code is
renewed to 60% protection of Amazon forest in parliament.
Conservation Units – Since 2000 the National System of Nature
Conservation Units (SNUC), provides criteria and regulations for the
creation, implementation and management of the conservation units. In
Brazil 11% of the territory is under conservation, but the borders of the
majority of the national parks are not respected (weak governance).
Brazil
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Scenarios
Low versus high governance: effectiveness of forest
conservation policies: 4 distinctive policy scenarios differ in the % of
effective protection of Conservation Units and Forest Code.
Low versus high price: low or high commodity prices of
beef and soy: 2 distinctive price projection scenarios (low = 3%
increase in price per year; high = 8% increase in price per year for both
commodities). Concurrently two population projections (low price = IBGE
projections, high price IBGE + 3% additional growth per year).
IBGE= Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística Português Español
Brazil
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Policy scenarios
1 The “Baseline” and ”revised baseline” scenarios both imply ineffective governance, while
“governance” and “revised governance” imply effective governance. “Revised” refers to revised
Forest act (see 1.2.1).
Scenario Forest type Governance1 Region Effective
Baseline Forest Code Low
North 65%
Central 60%
South 55%
Conservation Units Low
North 95%
Central 95%
South 95%
Revised baseline
Forest Code Low
North 40%
Central 40%
South 25%
Conservation Units Low
North 95%
Central 95%
South 95%
Governance
Forest Code High
North 75%
Central 70% South 65%
Conservation Units High
North 100%
Central 100%
South 100%
Revised
governance
Forest Code High
North 55%
Central 55%
South 40%
Conservation Units High
North 100%
Central 100%
South 100%
Forest code of 80% not
effectively protected
New Forest code of 60%
not effectively protected
Forest code of 80%
effectively protected
New Forest code of 60%
effectively protected
Brazil
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Main results
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
REVISED BASELINE
GOVERNANCE
REVISED GOVERNANCE
Relative difference with baseline governance scenario (%)
Job & income Education Health GDP services
Transport costs Beef income Soy income SUM Timber income
Biodiversity Natural vegetation SUM CO2 SUM deforestation
Revision of Forest Code
strongly increase
deforestation and CO2
emissions
Brazil
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Assessing policy options: equal weights
Governance policy
scenario scores highest
in MCA in both price
scenarios
In low scoring policy
scenarios economic
LUFs more important
than environmental LUfs
Brazil
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Impact Assessment in LUPIS: Conclusions
Need for ex-ante policy assessments: to understand intended and unintended
impacts of policies
Rich tool-boxes are not sufficient: integrated way of research is yet to emerge
for developing countries
Challenges in the collaboration: diversity of cultures, lack of ex-ante in-house
approaches, limited experience in multi-disciplinary research, data
constraints, hardly existing science-policy platforms
LUPIS IA: re-use tools and knowledge, integrate data, models, stakeholders;
balanced qualitative & quantitative methods; common language
Governance is critically important in understanding sustainable development
in developing countries (implementation and enforcement of policies)
LUPIS IA supposes the involvement at each stage- It has contributed to more
frequent and systematic interactions with stakeholders than is usual
approaches (National and Intl Policy Forums and workshops)
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Dissemination strategies
Publication of a special issue ‘Impact
Assessment of Land Use Policies and
Sustainable Development in Developing
Countries’ with Journal Land Use Policy
We expect some 6 papers into the Special Issue.
Five papers have been published in the past
year co-authored by scientists in the South and
Europe
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
INNOVATIONSEEDS / ECO-PRO
Highlight how LUPIS might be used
by policy makers and market players.
Although the tools focused on seven
specific areas, the analytical
framework is meant to be generic
and flexible so as to be applied
across a range of issues as in further
countries. The Technology readiness
Level of the methodology is therefore
estimated to be 9 on the TRL scale.
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