LAKESHASTA LAKEOROVILLE Bay-Delta STATE WATER PROJECT (2.0 MAF) LOS ANGELES AQUEDUCTS (0.5 MAF)...

Urban Water Institute

August 27, 2015

The Colorado River:Drought Impacts the

Lifeblood of the Southwest

Bill HasencampMetropolitan Water District

Southern California’sWater Supply SourcesLAKE

SHASTA

LAKEOROVILLE

Bay-Delta

STATE WATER PROJECT(2.0 MAF)

LOS ANGELESAQUEDUCTS

(0.5 MAF)

COLORADO RIVERAQUEDUCT(1.25 MAF)

METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT SERVICE AREA

LOCAL2.0 MAF

Colorado River Apportionments (Million acre-feet)

Apportionments

Deliveries in 1990s

Mexico

Upper Basin States

Lower Basin States

1.71

2.8

.3

1.04

3.86

4.4

.84

1.5

.05

.39

.80

2.4

.2

5.1

.49

1.8

2.5

.02

MAF1. Palo Verde ID (104,500 acres valley)2. Yuma Project (25,000 acres)3. (a) Imperial ID/Coachella Valley WD

(b) PVID (16,000 acres mesa)4. Metropolitan WD 0.550

Subtotal5. Metropolitan WD 0.700

Total

1931 Seven Party Agreement

3.850

4.400

5.100

maf PVID

Yuma Project IID 3.10CVWD 0.33MWD * 0.55

Total 4.40

*Amount fluctuates based on PVID/Yuma Project use, unused IID and CVWD water

0.42 (Average)

Quantification Settlement Agreement Quantified Water Budgets

California 4.4 Plan

Implement Agricultural Conservation Measures with IID

California 4.4 Plan

Line the All-American, Coachella Canals

California 4.4 Plan

Incentivie PVID Farmers to Not Grow Crops

PVID Fallowing Program Yield

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 -

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

121,067 AF

57,065 AF

57,685 AF

129,394 AF

112,719 AF

120,315 AF

106,504 AF

31,179 AF

32,750 AF

5,781 AF 50,601 AF

62,000 AF

122,000 AF

90%45% 45%

100% 100% 100% 100%25% 25% 50%

100%

Water Saved (TAF), Contract Year (August 1 – July 31)

Base EmergencyAug. 1, 2014 - Jul. 31, 2015 Aug. 1, 2015 - Jul. 31, 2016

Palo Verde Valley Community Improvement Fund

Metropolitan provided $6 million in 2005

Managed by Volunteer Board

Half of Funds DistributedGrants and loansIncluded small business development; job training programs

MWD, PVID non-voting members

Economic study concluded program is successful

Lake MeadStorage (ICS) Program

MWD can store 1.5 million acre-feet in Lake Mead

Avoids costs and impacts of building new storage reservoirs

MWD Storage Balance (ICS) in Lake Mead

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

40 4194

146

256

435

580

474

151

Calendar Year

Thou

sand

Acr

e-Fe

et

New Programs in 2015Expanded exchange with SNWA

150,000 in 2015Expanded exchange with IID

Up to 100,000 in 2015Boards to consider in September

0.0

200,000.0

400,000.0

600,000.0

800,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,200,000.0

New 2016 ExchangesICS DeliveryIID ExchangeLCWSPPVID Fallowing ProgramCanal Lining to MWDCanal Lining to SDCWAIID-SDCWA TransferIID-MWD ConservationBasic ApportionmentM

illio

n A

cre-

Feet

(MA

F)Projected 2015 CRA Supplies

Long-term Colorado River Challenges

Issue #1: Minimizing Colorado River Supply Losses

maf PVID

Yuma Project IID 3.10CVWD 0.33MWD * 0.55

Total 4.40

*Amount fluctuates based on PVID/Yuma Project use, unused IID and CVWD water

0.42 (Average)

Quantification Settlement Agreement Quantified Water Budgets

-150,000-100,000

-50,0000

50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000

Priority 1, 2, 3(b) use over 420 TAF

Thou

sand

Acr

e-Fe

etAgricultural Adjustments from Priority 1, 2, and 3(b) Use

Average = -74 TAF/year

*2014 Data is Preliminary.

-150,000-100,000

-50,0000

50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000 CVWD

IID

Thou

sand

Acr

e-Fe

et

Annual Unused Apportionment from IID and CVWD

Average = 81 TAF/year

*2014 Data is Preliminary.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-150000-100000

-500000

50000100000150000200000250000300000

Thou

sand

Acr

e-Fe

etAnnual Net Adjustment to Metropolitan’s Basic Apportionment

Average = 7 TAF/year

*2014 Data is Preliminary.

Water Supply Risks to Metropolitan

Agriculture demand could grow along the Colorado River

PVID: 16,000 additional mesa acresCRIT: ~50,000 AF of unused water rightsOther areas could grow

Water use increases would affect MWD’s supplyOptions to address increases include expanded fallowing, purchasing land

Issue #2: Dealing with Drought

May 2015: Wettest Month Ever Recorded in USA

Wettest May Ever for Parts of Colorado

Lake Powell 2015 April-July Runoff Monthly Forecasts

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Actual0%

10000%20000%30000%40000%50000%60000%70000%80000%90000%

100000%

Perc

ent o

f Ave

rage

Sep-99

Sep-00

Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

4,000

9,000

14,000

19,000

24,000

Lake Powell Storage2000 – 2015, May 2015 Projection vs. Actual

x 10

00 a

cre-

feet

Trigger for Reduced Releases

Dec-0

0

Dec-0

1

Dec-0

2

Dec-0

3

Dec-0

4

Dec-0

5

Dec-0

6

Dec-0

7

Dec-0

8

Dec-0

9

Dec-1

0

Dec-1

1

Dec-1

2

Dec-1

3

Dec-1

4

Dec-1

58,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

Lake Mead Storage2000 – 2015

x 10

00 a

cre-

feet

Surplus

Shortage

Dec-0

0

Dec-0

1

Dec-0

2

Dec-0

3

Dec-0

4

Dec-0

5

Dec-0

6

Dec-0

7

Dec-0

8

Dec-0

9

Dec-1

0

Dec-1

1

Dec-1

2

Dec-1

3

Dec-1

4

Dec-1

58,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

Lake Mead Storage2000 – 2015

x 10

00 a

cre-

feet

Surplus

Shortage

19051906190719081909191019111912191319141915191619171918191919201921192219231924192519261927192819291930193119321933193419351936193719381939194019411942194319441945194619471948194919501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620070

5

10

15

20

25

30

COLORADO RIVER NATURAL FLOW (AT LEE'S FERRY)1906-2008

103 Year Average = 15.0 MAF

annual flow

AN

NU

AL

FL

OW

(M

ILL

ION

AC

RE

-FE

ET

)

19051906190719081909191019111912191319141915191619171918191919201921192219231924192519261927192819291930193119321933193419351936193719381939194019411942194319441945194619471948194919501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620070

5

10

15

20

25

30

COLORADO RIVER NATURAL FLOW (AT LEE'S FERRY)1906-2008

103 Year Average = 15.0 MAF

annual flow

AN

NU

AL

FL

OW

(M

ILL

ION

AC

RE

-FE

ET

)

1905-1922 Ave. = 16.5 MAF

Colorado River Apportionments (Million acre-feet)

Apportionments

Mexico

Upper Basin States

Lower Basin States

1.71

2.8

.3

1.04

3.86

4.4

.84

1.5

.05

Colorado River Apportionments (Million acre-feet)

Apportionments

Sustainable Deliveries?

Mexico

Upper Basin States

Lower Basin States

1.71

2.8

.3

1.04

3.86

4.4

.84

1.5

.05

.59

1.2

2.2

.25

4.4

.73

2.7

1.3

.04

Lake Mead’s Future in Average Years

Augmentation? Conservation?

Summery

Metropolitan, along with SDCWA, have implemented significant ag to urban transfers to help CA live within 4.4 MAF ApportionmentNew tools have been developed to help manage those supplies in dry years

Lake Mead ICS, etc.The Colorado River faces continued challenges to its water supply reliability that will require new and innovative agreements and actions

Bill Hasencamp213-217- 6520

whasencamp@mwdh2o.com

Issue #3: Uncertain Future of the Salton Sea

QSA Provided Time toRestore Salton Sea

Formed in 1905Sustained by Ag drainage

50% Saltier than OceanSalinity increase 1%/yrSoon too Salty for Fish

Sea protected from QSA Transfer Impacts for 15 years

IID to deliver 800 TAF of “mitigation water” to Salton Sea through 2017Provided time for state to develop long-term solution

Frequent Fish Kills on Salton Sea

15 Year Period Nearing End; No Action Taken to Save Salton Sea

State has done little to advance Sea’s restoration

Issued Draft EIRPreferred Alternative $9 billion, $100 million O&M

IID petitioned SWRCB to condition QSA transfers on Salton Sea restoration

Resources agencies hosting meetings with stakeholders

QSA Legislation Authorized Potential Funding Source

If consistent with restoration, mitigation water can be sold to DWR instead of delivered to SeaDWR, in turn, would sell water to MWDProceed would benefit Salton Sea restoration

$125 million of funds availableProvide So. Cal. with up to 400,000 af, easing drought

State of California would need to initiate this DFG Code provision

Salton Sea Risks to QSA

IID threatens to end transfers to SDCWA and CVWD without restoration plan

If dust not sufficiently mitigated, lawsuits could block QSA transfers

Working with QSA parties to encourage state to develop consensus Salton Sea solution

Summery

Metropolitan, along with SDCWA, have implemented significant ag to urban transfers to help CA live within 4.4 MAF ApportionmentNew tools have been developed to help manage those supplies

Lake Mead ICS, etc.The Colorado River faces continued challenges to its water supply reliability that will require new and innovative agreements and actions

Bill Hasencamp213-217- 6520

whasencamp@mwdh2o.com