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Urban Water Institute
August 27, 2015
The Colorado River:Drought Impacts the
Lifeblood of the Southwest
Bill HasencampMetropolitan Water District
Southern California’sWater Supply SourcesLAKE
SHASTA
LAKEOROVILLE
Bay-Delta
STATE WATER PROJECT(2.0 MAF)
LOS ANGELESAQUEDUCTS
(0.5 MAF)
COLORADO RIVERAQUEDUCT(1.25 MAF)
METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT SERVICE AREA
LOCAL2.0 MAF
Colorado River Apportionments (Million acre-feet)
Apportionments
Deliveries in 1990s
Mexico
Upper Basin States
Lower Basin States
1.71
2.8
.3
1.04
3.86
4.4
.84
1.5
.05
.39
.80
2.4
.2
5.1
.49
1.8
2.5
.02
MAF1. Palo Verde ID (104,500 acres valley)2. Yuma Project (25,000 acres)3. (a) Imperial ID/Coachella Valley WD
(b) PVID (16,000 acres mesa)4. Metropolitan WD 0.550
Subtotal5. Metropolitan WD 0.700
Total
1931 Seven Party Agreement
3.850
4.400
5.100
maf PVID
Yuma Project IID 3.10CVWD 0.33MWD * 0.55
Total 4.40
*Amount fluctuates based on PVID/Yuma Project use, unused IID and CVWD water
0.42 (Average)
Quantification Settlement Agreement Quantified Water Budgets
California 4.4 Plan
Implement Agricultural Conservation Measures with IID
California 4.4 Plan
Line the All-American, Coachella Canals
California 4.4 Plan
Incentivie PVID Farmers to Not Grow Crops
PVID Fallowing Program Yield
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
121,067 AF
57,065 AF
57,685 AF
129,394 AF
112,719 AF
120,315 AF
106,504 AF
31,179 AF
32,750 AF
5,781 AF 50,601 AF
62,000 AF
122,000 AF
90%45% 45%
100% 100% 100% 100%25% 25% 50%
100%
Water Saved (TAF), Contract Year (August 1 – July 31)
Base EmergencyAug. 1, 2014 - Jul. 31, 2015 Aug. 1, 2015 - Jul. 31, 2016
Palo Verde Valley Community Improvement Fund
Metropolitan provided $6 million in 2005
Managed by Volunteer Board
Half of Funds DistributedGrants and loansIncluded small business development; job training programs
MWD, PVID non-voting members
Economic study concluded program is successful
Lake MeadStorage (ICS) Program
MWD can store 1.5 million acre-feet in Lake Mead
Avoids costs and impacts of building new storage reservoirs
MWD Storage Balance (ICS) in Lake Mead
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
40 4194
146
256
435
580
474
151
Calendar Year
Thou
sand
Acr
e-Fe
et
New Programs in 2015Expanded exchange with SNWA
150,000 in 2015Expanded exchange with IID
Up to 100,000 in 2015Boards to consider in September
0.0
200,000.0
400,000.0
600,000.0
800,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,200,000.0
New 2016 ExchangesICS DeliveryIID ExchangeLCWSPPVID Fallowing ProgramCanal Lining to MWDCanal Lining to SDCWAIID-SDCWA TransferIID-MWD ConservationBasic ApportionmentM
illio
n A
cre-
Feet
(MA
F)Projected 2015 CRA Supplies
Long-term Colorado River Challenges
Issue #1: Minimizing Colorado River Supply Losses
maf PVID
Yuma Project IID 3.10CVWD 0.33MWD * 0.55
Total 4.40
*Amount fluctuates based on PVID/Yuma Project use, unused IID and CVWD water
0.42 (Average)
Quantification Settlement Agreement Quantified Water Budgets
-150,000-100,000
-50,0000
50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000
Priority 1, 2, 3(b) use over 420 TAF
Thou
sand
Acr
e-Fe
etAgricultural Adjustments from Priority 1, 2, and 3(b) Use
Average = -74 TAF/year
*2014 Data is Preliminary.
-150,000-100,000
-50,0000
50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000 CVWD
IID
Thou
sand
Acr
e-Fe
et
Annual Unused Apportionment from IID and CVWD
Average = 81 TAF/year
*2014 Data is Preliminary.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-150000-100000
-500000
50000100000150000200000250000300000
Thou
sand
Acr
e-Fe
etAnnual Net Adjustment to Metropolitan’s Basic Apportionment
Average = 7 TAF/year
*2014 Data is Preliminary.
Water Supply Risks to Metropolitan
Agriculture demand could grow along the Colorado River
PVID: 16,000 additional mesa acresCRIT: ~50,000 AF of unused water rightsOther areas could grow
Water use increases would affect MWD’s supplyOptions to address increases include expanded fallowing, purchasing land
Issue #2: Dealing with Drought
May 2015: Wettest Month Ever Recorded in USA
Wettest May Ever for Parts of Colorado
Lake Powell 2015 April-July Runoff Monthly Forecasts
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Actual0%
10000%20000%30000%40000%50000%60000%70000%80000%90000%
100000%
Perc
ent o
f Ave
rage
Sep-99
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
4,000
9,000
14,000
19,000
24,000
Lake Powell Storage2000 – 2015, May 2015 Projection vs. Actual
x 10
00 a
cre-
feet
Trigger for Reduced Releases
Dec-0
0
Dec-0
1
Dec-0
2
Dec-0
3
Dec-0
4
Dec-0
5
Dec-0
6
Dec-0
7
Dec-0
8
Dec-0
9
Dec-1
0
Dec-1
1
Dec-1
2
Dec-1
3
Dec-1
4
Dec-1
58,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
Lake Mead Storage2000 – 2015
x 10
00 a
cre-
feet
Surplus
Shortage
Dec-0
0
Dec-0
1
Dec-0
2
Dec-0
3
Dec-0
4
Dec-0
5
Dec-0
6
Dec-0
7
Dec-0
8
Dec-0
9
Dec-1
0
Dec-1
1
Dec-1
2
Dec-1
3
Dec-1
4
Dec-1
58,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
Lake Mead Storage2000 – 2015
x 10
00 a
cre-
feet
Surplus
Shortage
19051906190719081909191019111912191319141915191619171918191919201921192219231924192519261927192819291930193119321933193419351936193719381939194019411942194319441945194619471948194919501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620070
5
10
15
20
25
30
COLORADO RIVER NATURAL FLOW (AT LEE'S FERRY)1906-2008
103 Year Average = 15.0 MAF
annual flow
AN
NU
AL
FL
OW
(M
ILL
ION
AC
RE
-FE
ET
)
19051906190719081909191019111912191319141915191619171918191919201921192219231924192519261927192819291930193119321933193419351936193719381939194019411942194319441945194619471948194919501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620070
5
10
15
20
25
30
COLORADO RIVER NATURAL FLOW (AT LEE'S FERRY)1906-2008
103 Year Average = 15.0 MAF
annual flow
AN
NU
AL
FL
OW
(M
ILL
ION
AC
RE
-FE
ET
)
1905-1922 Ave. = 16.5 MAF
Colorado River Apportionments (Million acre-feet)
Apportionments
Mexico
Upper Basin States
Lower Basin States
1.71
2.8
.3
1.04
3.86
4.4
.84
1.5
.05
Colorado River Apportionments (Million acre-feet)
Apportionments
Sustainable Deliveries?
Mexico
Upper Basin States
Lower Basin States
1.71
2.8
.3
1.04
3.86
4.4
.84
1.5
.05
.59
1.2
2.2
.25
4.4
.73
2.7
1.3
.04
Lake Mead’s Future in Average Years
Augmentation? Conservation?
Summery
Metropolitan, along with SDCWA, have implemented significant ag to urban transfers to help CA live within 4.4 MAF ApportionmentNew tools have been developed to help manage those supplies in dry years
Lake Mead ICS, etc.The Colorado River faces continued challenges to its water supply reliability that will require new and innovative agreements and actions
Issue #3: Uncertain Future of the Salton Sea
QSA Provided Time toRestore Salton Sea
Formed in 1905Sustained by Ag drainage
50% Saltier than OceanSalinity increase 1%/yrSoon too Salty for Fish
Sea protected from QSA Transfer Impacts for 15 years
IID to deliver 800 TAF of “mitigation water” to Salton Sea through 2017Provided time for state to develop long-term solution
Frequent Fish Kills on Salton Sea
15 Year Period Nearing End; No Action Taken to Save Salton Sea
State has done little to advance Sea’s restoration
Issued Draft EIRPreferred Alternative $9 billion, $100 million O&M
IID petitioned SWRCB to condition QSA transfers on Salton Sea restoration
Resources agencies hosting meetings with stakeholders
QSA Legislation Authorized Potential Funding Source
If consistent with restoration, mitigation water can be sold to DWR instead of delivered to SeaDWR, in turn, would sell water to MWDProceed would benefit Salton Sea restoration
$125 million of funds availableProvide So. Cal. with up to 400,000 af, easing drought
State of California would need to initiate this DFG Code provision
Salton Sea Risks to QSA
IID threatens to end transfers to SDCWA and CVWD without restoration plan
If dust not sufficiently mitigated, lawsuits could block QSA transfers
Working with QSA parties to encourage state to develop consensus Salton Sea solution
Summery
Metropolitan, along with SDCWA, have implemented significant ag to urban transfers to help CA live within 4.4 MAF ApportionmentNew tools have been developed to help manage those supplies
Lake Mead ICS, etc.The Colorado River faces continued challenges to its water supply reliability that will require new and innovative agreements and actions
