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Lake Effect Snow in Western New York. Adam Czekanski 26 April 2007. Photo Courtesy of NOAA. Agenda. Objective Critical Variables Study Area Historic Trends Event Analysis Conclusion Acknowledgements Questions. Photo Courtesy of V.L.TROY. Objective. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Lake Effect Snow in Western New York
Adam Czekanski
26 April 2007
Photo Courtesy of NOAA
Agenda
• Objective• Critical Variables• Study Area• Historic Trends• Event Analysis• Conclusion• Acknowledgements• Questions
Photo Courtesy of V.L.TROY
Objective
To illustrate the relationship between meteorological factors, geographical factors and lake effect snow as they pertain to Lake
Erie and western New York.
Imagery Courtesy NOAA CoastWatch - Great Lakes Region
Lake Effect Snow
Intense snowfall that occurs as a result of cold dry air moving across the
surface of a warmer body of water.
Imagery Courtesy Sea WiFS Project, NASA
Lake Effect Snow
Slides Courtesy of Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois
Variables
• Temperature Differential– Produces convective instability– Ideally 15-25oC
• Relative Humidity– Amount of moisture in the air– Determines time air needs over water to become saturated
• Latent Heat– Heat released from condensation of moisture– Additional energy source for convective instability
Variables
• Wind Speed– Ideally at least ~11 MPH (5 m/s)– Affects spray/evaporation, residence time
• Wind Direction / Fetch– Determines where storm comes ashore– Length of fetch (trajectory) affects moisture contact time
• Ice Cover– Directly affects amount of moisture available– Water >0oC needed
• Shoreline– Convergence and vertical lift due to surface friction– Elevation change causes moist air to rise, condense
Lake Effect Storm in Action(Buffalo, NY, January 2007)
Study Area
Map Courtesy of GoCanada.com
Study Area
Lake Erie
Historic Trends (NCDC Snow Gage Locations)
Historic Trends(Lake Ice Cover)
Average Ice Cover on Lake Erie(1926-2001)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
December January February March April
Month
Ice
Co
ver
(%)
Lake Erie West Basin Central Basin East Basin
Historic Trends(Temperature and Ice Cover)
Air/Water/Ice Parameters on Lake Erie
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
December January February March April
Month
Tem
per
atu
re (
oC
)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Ice
Co
ver
(%)
Average Air Temp Average Water Temp Average Lake Ice
Historic Trends(Lake Ice Cover and Snowfall)
Average Snowfall and Lake Ice
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
December January February March April
Month
Sn
ow
fall
(in
)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Ice
Co
ver
(%)
Average Snowfall Average Lake Ice
Historic Trends(Elevation and Distance from the Lake)
Average Annual Snowfall by Elevation and Distance
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Elevation (ft)
Sn
ow
fall
(in
)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Distance (mi)
Elevation
Distance
Event Analysis (NOHRSC Snow Gage Locations)
Event Analysis(29 January 2007)
Air Temp RhWater Temp
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
oC % oC Degrees MPHDunkirk -6.7 67 N/A 260 11.8Buffalo -9.4 73 N/A 270 9.3
Average -8.1 70 1.7 265 10.6
Site
Event Analysis(14 February 2007)
Air Temp RhWater Temp
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
oC % oC Degrees MPHDunkirk -11.1 76 N/A 280 14.3Buffalo -11.1 87 N/A 360 11.9
Average -11.1 82 0.0 320 13.1
Site
Event Analysis(26 February 2007)
Air Temp RhWater Temp
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
oC % oC Degrees MPHDunkirk 1.1 85 N/A 240 6.1Buffalo -0.6 92 N/A 250 0.5
Average 0.3 89 0.0 245 3.3
Site
Event Analysis(7 March 2007)
Air Temp RhWater Temp
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
oC % oC Degrees MPHDunkirk -10.0 67 N/A 290 2.6Buffalo -9.4 64 N/A 220 6.9
Average -9.7 65 0.0 255 4.8
Site
I’m a Fan of GIS!!!GIS is Satan’s spawn!!!
Conclusion
Occurrence, strength, and location of lake effect snows in western New York rely on a number of variables, but are most strongly correlated with the ice cover on Lake Erie
Acknowledgements
• Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL)– Greg Lang– Ray Assel– Tim Hunter– Nathan Hawley
• National Operational Hydrologic Sensing Center – Kelley Eicher
• University of Wisconsin (Space Science and Engineering Center) – Liam Gumley
• Brad Eck, Tyler Jantzen, Stephanie Johnson, Clark Siler, and Ernest To for their “technical expertise”
• Eric Hersh for being my nemesis for the last two years!!
Questions
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