LA27

Expected impacts of climate change Expected impacts of climate change on CROP YIELDS in the Pampas on CROP YIELDS in the Pampas region of Argentina, Brazil and region of Argentina, Brazil and

UruguayUruguay

Expected impacts of climate change Expected impacts of climate change on CROP YIELDS in the Pampas on CROP YIELDS in the Pampas region of Argentina, Brazil and region of Argentina, Brazil and

UruguayUruguay

LA27

María I. Travasso (INTA)

DSSAT

CROPS YIELD

Climate Scenarios

(30-60,70-00, LARS, HADLEY)

CENTURY

PASTURES

MAIZE YIELD(Rainfed Conditions)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Ar-AZ Ar- PE Ar- PI Ar- SR Ar-TR Uy-LE Br-PF Mean

(1) 30-60 (2) 70-00 (Ft) LARS Ft GCM

MAIZE YIELD(Potential Conditions)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Ar-AZ Ar- PE Ar- PI Ar- SR Ar-TR Uy-LE Br-PF Mean

(1) 30-60 (2) 70-00 (Ft) LARS Ft GCM

SOYBEAN YIELD(Rainfed Conditions)

0

1

2

3

4

5

Ar-AZ Ar- PE Ar- PI Ar- SR Ar-TR Uy-LE Br-PF Mean

(1) 30-60 (2) 70-00 (Ft) LARS Ft GCM

SOYBEAN YIELD(Potential Conditions)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ar-AZ Ar- PE Ar- PI Ar- SR Ar-TR Uy-LE Br-PF Mean

(1) 30-60 (2) 70-00 (Ft) LARS Ft GCM

WHEAT YIELD(Rainfed Conditions)

0

1

2

3

4

5

Ar-AZ Ar- PE Ar- PI Ar- SR Ar-TR Uy-LE Br-PF Mean

(1) 30-60 (2) 70-00 (Ft) LARS Ft GCM

WHEAT YIELD(Potential Conditions)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Ar-AZ Ar- PE Ar- PI Ar- SR Ar-TR Uy-LE Br-PF Mean

(1) 30-60 (2) 70-00 (Ft) LARS Ft GCM

Relative Yield

Changes

Water Limited Potential

Mz Sb Wh Mz Sb Wh

AZLARS 7 17 -5 -1 -8 -19

HAD -2 -1 -6 -1 -1 -3

PELARS 12 28 -8 -11 -4 -10

HAD -6 -5 -11 -7 0 -6

TRLARS 33 43 -2 0 3 -12

HAD -1 1 -4 -6 0 -4

SRLARS 15 19 17 -2 1 1

HAD 5 11 -6 -7 1 -4

PILARS 9 27 - -10 -13 -

HAD -3 7 -17 -10 -1 -5

PFLARS 10 25 -8 -7 -3 -16

HAD -6 -4 -11 -3 1 -12

LELARS 37 34 -8 -8 -5 -1

HAD -9 -25 -3 -4 -3 -2

Maize Yield

6

8

10

12

14

16

30-60 70-00 Ft

Soybean Yield

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

30-60 70-00 Ft Wheat Yield

3

4

5

6

30-60 70-00 Ft

Mean Crop Yields

Potential

Water Limited

Potential ConditionsMaize Yield

6

8

10

12

14

16

30-60 70-00 Ft

Soybean Yield

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

30-60 70-00 Ft Wheat Yield

3

4

5

6

30-60 70-00 Ft

Projected Changes in Temperature

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

JAS OND JFM AMJ

Quarters

Minimum Temperature (ºC)LarsHadley

Minimum Temperature

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

JAS OND JFM AMJ

Quarters

Maximum Temperature (ºC)LarsHadley

Maximum Temperature

Changes (days) in Crops Growing Season

MAIZE

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

AZ PE PI SR TA LE PF

lars/70 had/70

SOYBEAN

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

AZ PE PI SR TR LE PF

WHEAT

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

AZ PE PI SR TR LE PF

Water Limited Conditions

Wheat Yield

3

4

5

6

30-60 70-00 Ft

Soybean Yield

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

30-60 70-00 Ft

Maize Yield

6

8

10

12

14

16

30-60 70-00 Ft

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

JAS OND JFM AMJ

Quarters

Precipitation (mm)

LarsHadley

Precipitation

Projected Changes in Precipitation

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 3 5 7 9 11

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 3 5 7 9 11 13

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

S. ROSA

P. FUNDOESTANZUELA

PERGAMINO

MAIZE YIELD WL

30-60 70-00 LARS HAD

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 1 2 3 4 5

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

S. ROSA

P. FUNDO

ESTANZUELA

PERGAMINO

SOYBEAN YIELD WL

30-60 70-00 LARS HAD

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 1 2 3 4 5

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 2 3 4 5 6

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

S. ROSA

P. FUNDOESTANZUELA

PERGAMINO

WHEAT YIELD WL

30-60 70-00 LARS HAD

INCREASING COINCREASING CO22

> RUE > WUE

> YIELDS

Increasing CO2

Maize Yield

6

8

10

12

14

16

30-60 70-00 Ft+CO2

Soybean Yield

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

30-60 70-00 Ft+CO2

Wheat Yield

3

4

5

6

30-60 70-00 Ft+CO2

Maize Yield

6

8

10

12

14

16

30-60 70-00 Ft

Soybean Yield

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

30-60 70-00 Ft

Wheat Yield

3

4

5

6

30-60 70-00 Ft

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15wl pot

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-10

10

30

50

70

90

70/30 LARS/70 HA/ 70 >CO2LARS >CO2 HA

WHEAT

MAIZE

SOYBEAN

% YIELD CHANGES

PASTURES

•Especially developed to deal with a wide range of cropping system rotations and tillage practices for system analysis of the effects of management and global change on productivity and sustainability of agroecosystems.

CENTURY

•This model integrates the effects of climate and soil driving variables and agricultural management to simulate carbon, nitrogen, and water dynamics in the soil-plant system.

•Simulation of complex agricultural management systems including crop rotations, tillage practices, fertilization, irrigation, grazing, and harvest methods.

Pastures: Observed vs Simulated with CENTURY

y = 0.92x + 155R2 = 0.91

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Observed per Season (kgMS/ha)

Median Simulated per Season

(kgMS/ha)

Aren

BasPr

BasSup

CrCent

CrEste

Litoral

LlanEste

Noreste

SierrE

TESTING CENTURY IN URUGUAY

Cristalino: Observed vs Century

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

FALL WINTER SPRING SUMMER

DM Production (kg / season)

0.05

0.1

0.25

MEDIAN

0.75

0.9

0.95

OBS

Improved Cristalino: Observed vs Century

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

FALL WINTER SPRING SUMMER

DM Production (kg / season)

0.05

0.1

0.25

MEDIAN

0.75

0.9

0.95

OBS