Upload
vinson
View
23
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Expected impacts of climate change on CROP YIELDS in the Pampas region of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. LA27. María I. Travasso (INTA). DSSAT. CENTURY. CROPS YIELD. PASTURES. Climate Scenarios (30-60,70-00, LARS, HADLEY). Mean Crop Yields. Potential. Water Limited. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Expected impacts of climate change Expected impacts of climate change on CROP YIELDS in the Pampas on CROP YIELDS in the Pampas region of Argentina, Brazil and region of Argentina, Brazil and
UruguayUruguay
Expected impacts of climate change Expected impacts of climate change on CROP YIELDS in the Pampas on CROP YIELDS in the Pampas region of Argentina, Brazil and region of Argentina, Brazil and
UruguayUruguay
LA27
María I. Travasso (INTA)
DSSAT
CROPS YIELD
Climate Scenarios
(30-60,70-00, LARS, HADLEY)
CENTURY
PASTURES
MAIZE YIELD(Rainfed Conditions)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Ar-AZ Ar- PE Ar- PI Ar- SR Ar-TR Uy-LE Br-PF Mean
(1) 30-60 (2) 70-00 (Ft) LARS Ft GCM
MAIZE YIELD(Potential Conditions)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Ar-AZ Ar- PE Ar- PI Ar- SR Ar-TR Uy-LE Br-PF Mean
(1) 30-60 (2) 70-00 (Ft) LARS Ft GCM
SOYBEAN YIELD(Rainfed Conditions)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ar-AZ Ar- PE Ar- PI Ar- SR Ar-TR Uy-LE Br-PF Mean
(1) 30-60 (2) 70-00 (Ft) LARS Ft GCM
SOYBEAN YIELD(Potential Conditions)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ar-AZ Ar- PE Ar- PI Ar- SR Ar-TR Uy-LE Br-PF Mean
(1) 30-60 (2) 70-00 (Ft) LARS Ft GCM
WHEAT YIELD(Rainfed Conditions)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ar-AZ Ar- PE Ar- PI Ar- SR Ar-TR Uy-LE Br-PF Mean
(1) 30-60 (2) 70-00 (Ft) LARS Ft GCM
WHEAT YIELD(Potential Conditions)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Ar-AZ Ar- PE Ar- PI Ar- SR Ar-TR Uy-LE Br-PF Mean
(1) 30-60 (2) 70-00 (Ft) LARS Ft GCM
Relative Yield
Changes
Water Limited Potential
Mz Sb Wh Mz Sb Wh
AZLARS 7 17 -5 -1 -8 -19
HAD -2 -1 -6 -1 -1 -3
PELARS 12 28 -8 -11 -4 -10
HAD -6 -5 -11 -7 0 -6
TRLARS 33 43 -2 0 3 -12
HAD -1 1 -4 -6 0 -4
SRLARS 15 19 17 -2 1 1
HAD 5 11 -6 -7 1 -4
PILARS 9 27 - -10 -13 -
HAD -3 7 -17 -10 -1 -5
PFLARS 10 25 -8 -7 -3 -16
HAD -6 -4 -11 -3 1 -12
LELARS 37 34 -8 -8 -5 -1
HAD -9 -25 -3 -4 -3 -2
Maize Yield
6
8
10
12
14
16
30-60 70-00 Ft
Soybean Yield
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
30-60 70-00 Ft Wheat Yield
3
4
5
6
30-60 70-00 Ft
Mean Crop Yields
Potential
Water Limited
Potential ConditionsMaize Yield
6
8
10
12
14
16
30-60 70-00 Ft
Soybean Yield
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
30-60 70-00 Ft Wheat Yield
3
4
5
6
30-60 70-00 Ft
Projected Changes in Temperature
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
JAS OND JFM AMJ
Quarters
Minimum Temperature (ºC)LarsHadley
Minimum Temperature
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
JAS OND JFM AMJ
Quarters
Maximum Temperature (ºC)LarsHadley
Maximum Temperature
Changes (days) in Crops Growing Season
MAIZE
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
AZ PE PI SR TA LE PF
lars/70 had/70
SOYBEAN
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
AZ PE PI SR TR LE PF
WHEAT
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
AZ PE PI SR TR LE PF
Water Limited Conditions
Wheat Yield
3
4
5
6
30-60 70-00 Ft
Soybean Yield
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
30-60 70-00 Ft
Maize Yield
6
8
10
12
14
16
30-60 70-00 Ft
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
JAS OND JFM AMJ
Quarters
Precipitation (mm)
LarsHadley
Precipitation
Projected Changes in Precipitation
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1 3 5 7 9 11
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1 3 5 7 9 11 13
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
S. ROSA
P. FUNDOESTANZUELA
PERGAMINO
MAIZE YIELD WL
30-60 70-00 LARS HAD
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
S. ROSA
P. FUNDO
ESTANZUELA
PERGAMINO
SOYBEAN YIELD WL
30-60 70-00 LARS HAD
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1 2 3 4 5 6
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
S. ROSA
P. FUNDOESTANZUELA
PERGAMINO
WHEAT YIELD WL
30-60 70-00 LARS HAD
INCREASING COINCREASING CO22
> RUE > WUE
> YIELDS
Increasing CO2
Maize Yield
6
8
10
12
14
16
30-60 70-00 Ft+CO2
Soybean Yield
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
30-60 70-00 Ft+CO2
Wheat Yield
3
4
5
6
30-60 70-00 Ft+CO2
Maize Yield
6
8
10
12
14
16
30-60 70-00 Ft
Soybean Yield
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
30-60 70-00 Ft
Wheat Yield
3
4
5
6
30-60 70-00 Ft
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15wl pot
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-10
10
30
50
70
90
70/30 LARS/70 HA/ 70 >CO2LARS >CO2 HA
WHEAT
MAIZE
SOYBEAN
% YIELD CHANGES
PASTURES
•Especially developed to deal with a wide range of cropping system rotations and tillage practices for system analysis of the effects of management and global change on productivity and sustainability of agroecosystems.
CENTURY
•This model integrates the effects of climate and soil driving variables and agricultural management to simulate carbon, nitrogen, and water dynamics in the soil-plant system.
•Simulation of complex agricultural management systems including crop rotations, tillage practices, fertilization, irrigation, grazing, and harvest methods.
Pastures: Observed vs Simulated with CENTURY
y = 0.92x + 155R2 = 0.91
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Observed per Season (kgMS/ha)
Median Simulated per Season
(kgMS/ha)
Aren
BasPr
BasSup
CrCent
CrEste
Litoral
LlanEste
Noreste
SierrE
TESTING CENTURY IN URUGUAY
Cristalino: Observed vs Century
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
FALL WINTER SPRING SUMMER
DM Production (kg / season)
0.05
0.1
0.25
MEDIAN
0.75
0.9
0.95
OBS
Improved Cristalino: Observed vs Century
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
FALL WINTER SPRING SUMMER
DM Production (kg / season)
0.05
0.1
0.25
MEDIAN
0.75
0.9
0.95
OBS