Keeping Climate science fundable: Challenges and opportunities … · 2018. 11. 7. · Climate...

Keeping Climate science fundable: Challenges and opportunities of the 2030

Agenda for Sustainable development

IV International Conference on El Niño South Oscillation:ENSO in a warmer climate

Guayaquil, Ecuador 16-18 octubre 2018

Rodney Martínezr.martinez@ciifen.org

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The climate financing landscape

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The Climate Change financing…welcome to the jungle!

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Climate financing in Latin America

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Climate financing in LACC

• Climate financing in LACC prioritizes projects forrenewable energy

• Climate financing in LACC prioritizes mitigation overadaptation.

• The asymmetries between countries in the regionare exhacerbated by the way of access to climatefunds: more capacity more funding; less capacityless funding.

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Is the climate financing being effectiveto support development?

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Key: Dark blue = floods. Light blue = mass movement wet. Green = storms. Yellow = drought. Magenta = extreme

temperature. Orange = Wildfires Photograph: /WMO

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10The number of recorded disasters by disaster type. Source: OFDA/CRED, 2017

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WMO

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1) El Niño 2015/16 was similar to 1997-1998, 1982-1983 among the strongest since1950. It affected 60,000,000 people in 28 countries (UN).

2) During 2015/16 the global climate experienced an unprecedented combination ofEl Niño, the Pacific decadal oscillation in its positive phase and the warmest periodof instrumental history.

3) The most significant impacts of El Niño 2015/16 were reflected in the worsening ofdroughts around the world with less extreme rainfall events.

SEPTEMBER 2015 JASON-2

EL NIÑ O 2015/16

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13Fuentes: OCHA-WHO

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Anomalies of Sea Surface Temperature (°C) November 2016 – June 2017

The Coastal El Niño 2017

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Impacts of coastal el Niño in Peru

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Information gaps to cope with El Niño 2015/2016 and Coastal el Niñ0 2017

• Key Climate information does not reacheveryone.

• Rural communities, that are the mostvulnerable, are not as well informed asthe authorities, population of largecities and private actors.

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• The last mile to arrive witheffective climate services isthe big challenge ahead!

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What are some of the elements to improveclimate financing effectiveness?

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• To reallocate more funds for risk management and adaptation.

• Improved information systems for better decisions.

• Prioritization based on vulnerability assessments at more local level.

• Capacity development.

• Technological transference.

• Political and Governance aspects and a lot more….

STRATEGIC RE-ALIGNMENT OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS DEALING WITH CLIMATE

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WEF, 2018

The Global Risks Landscape 2018

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Two ongoing processes in two related communities…

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What are the opportunitesand challenges?

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31ISET, 2014

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FROM RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS…

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Figure 5: Phases in Weather and Climate Risk Management. Canada School of Public Service

Adapted from WMO (2016).1

1 The graphical representation in Figure 5 is intended to explain didactically the phases in weather and climate. It does not suggest that uncertainties increase linearly with lead time.

Weather

Climate Change

Climate Variability

Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S)

• The S2S Database, hosted by ECMWF &CMA, contains 10 models

• International Coordination Office hosted by KMA: http://s2sprediction.net

• Improve forecast skill and understanding on the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale (2 weeks to a season) with special emphasis on high-impact weather events

• Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centres and exploitation by the applications community

• Expertise from weather and climate research communities and link toGlobal Framework for Climate Services

WCRP is leading S2S jointly with

WWRP. Some of the S2S (and also

decadal products) are planned to

become operational in the near future,

under the leadership of CBS and CCl.

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Connecting the fundamental climatescience with applications e.g services

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38WMO

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Connecting the global science with theregions to support countries

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PARCOF

REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (RCOFs)

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WMO REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS

Scoping WCRP Regional ActivitiesWCRP recognizes the substantial gaps in climate data to be ready to produce climate information in need, particularly of different regions.

WCRP

Grand Challenges

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• WCRP works with partnerscontributing to climate services and impact assessment: by producing science-based, reliable and locally relevant climate and climate change information.

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Courtesy of Dr. T. Peter (Member of WCRP-JSC)

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Conclusions

• To continue working in a Business as Usual mode is not an option.

• Increased funding for climate research is directly related with newand innovative interactions between Research and Operationalcommunities.

• The interconnection between the global and the regional climateresearch is essential to improve the predictions at higher resolutionand produces more societal benefits enabling conditions to get morefunding and contribute effectively to sustainable development.

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