John Marcy December 18, 2012 Gl bal Last-Line of Defense (GOLD)

John MarcyDecember 18, 2012

Gl bal Last-Line of Defense (GOLD)

Gl bal Last-Line of Defense (GOLD)

Barringer Crater, AZ

150 m (Toutatis 4 km)

1.2 km

Impact Damage: 1000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs = 1000 x 15 kt = 15 Mt

History

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1908 – Tunguska Event – A 50 m asteroid exploded over Siberia with the equivalent damage of 600 Hiroshima nuclear bombs

1967 – A group of MIT students look to develop first asteroid interceptor with Project Icarus

January 1967 – Outer Space Treaty signed between the U.S., Russia, and the U.KJuly 1991 – STrategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) signed

1998 – Congress mandates for discovery of 90% of asteroids greater than 1 km2005 – Congress mandates for discovery of 90% of asteroids greater than 140 m by the year 2020, funds pendingApril 2010 – New START treaty signed between the U.S. and Russia

October 2012– Hurricane Sandy hit New Jersey, total damages reaching ~ $60b2029 – The 300 m asteroid 99942 Apophis will miss Earth by approximately one tenth the distance from the Earth to Moon

August 2005– Hurricane Katrina hits New Orleans, total damages reaching ~ $81b

Context

Too impractical

Need more power

for short timeline

Too risky – too close

Nuclear fallout

and reformation

possible

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• There currently exists no mitigation plan against eventual Earth impact with these smaller, yet still powerful asteroids

The GOLDen ScenarioAssumptions

1. Incoming asteroid trajectory2. Very dense incoming asteroid3. Poor albedo4. Subsurface detonation is 100

times more effective5. Correct midcourse and terminal

guidance methods in place

No nuclear fallout!

2nd

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Timeline

> 30 day launch window needed

Launch

~3 min into flightseparation

Initial maneuver and Guide autonomously

Sensors on with~24 hours to go

EKV separates and detonates

Nuclear warhead detonateson area impacted by EKV

Simulation

Inputs (Apophis intercept 2029):• M = 2.7E+20 kg• a = 0.92241 AU• e = 0.19121• Enuc = 1.0E+17 J (20 X EB83 = 5 PJ)• Lead Time = 30 days

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EarthApophis BeforeApophis After

Simulation Close-up

Inputs (Apophis intercept 2029):• M = 2.7E+20 kg• a = 0.92241 AU• e = 0.19121• Enuc = 1.0E+17 J (20 X EB83)• Lead Time = 30 days

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EarthApophis BeforeApophis After

Trajectories

Heliocentric Coordinate X (AU) Heliocentric Coordinate X (AU)

Hel

ioce

ntric

Coo

rdin

ate

Y (A

U)

Hel

ioce

ntric

Coo

rdin

ate

Y (A

U)

Heliocentric Coordinate X (AU) Heliocentric Coordinate X (AU)

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EarthApophis BeforeApophis After

Impact

Simulation OutputsLead Time

Alt. at Intercept

Alt at Intercept

Impact Angle

ΔVast Safe Distance

ToF Transfer Angle

ΔV Prop. Mass

days Re AU deg km/s Re days deg km/s kg

15 988.5 0.042 0 0.136 178.5 14 19.4 1.402 496.9

30 1.77E+03 0.072 0 0.140 165.5 24 34.3 3.858 1796.3

“ “ “ 15 0.135 161.7 “ “ “ “

“ “ “ 30 0.121 146.6 “ “ “ “

“ “ “ 45 0.099 127.3 “ “ “ “

“ “ “ 60 0.070 100.2 “ “ “ “

45 2.30E+03 0.098 0 0.143 157.2 36 49.3 7.073 4853.0

60 2.59E+03 0.110 0 0.144 153.5 45 64.4 12.145 16286.3

75 2.61E+-3 0.111 0 0.144 154.8 52 79.6 19.047 71657.0

Note: Distance to Moon ~ 60 Re

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The GOLD Spacecraft

Nuclear Device

Heat Shield

Fuzing Mast

55 in

23 in

Mass = 65.3 kg

Nuc Mass = 1100 kgEst. Total Dry Mass = 1500 kg

Cooling System

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• The Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV) is a missile that has been in service since 2004 and widely tested against an array of targets

12 ft

4.5 ft

The Global Planetary Defensive Agency (GPDA)

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• Tasks:• Maintain the three stations across the Equator• Monitor the skies for incoming threats• Reallocate of the global nuclear arsenal• Analyze the scenario for the last line of defense

• Location of impact vs. destruction

Limitations;COSMIC SYNERGY Government

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Trade Studies will be performed to follow up on the following questions:– How does GOLD’s effectiveness compare with Dr. Bong

Wei’s proposition– Probability of collision with Earth, necessary?– Currently using just the IR sensor of the EKV, sensitive

enough?– Ability to maneuver a 1000 kg payload?– Possible explosion vs actual push?– How to shape a subsurface nuclear explosion to

maximize resultant ΔV and change asteroid trajectory?

Phase 1 – A Real End-to-End Mission Simulation – No Threat Sim (NTS)

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• Components identified – launcher, sim weapon, integration strategy, ops• Simulation start• Target identified• Integration• Launch• Midcourse Guidance• Target acquired• Terminal Guidance• Phasing and trajectory alignment• Close in sequence – includes precursory camera flyby ?• Charge Delivery and detonation• Reconnaissance and threat defused assurance/verification

Phase 2 – Monte Carlo Analysis;COSMIC SYNERGY Government

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• Amount of lead time• Variability in nuclear weapon effectiveness• Mission planning• Possibility to change mission midflight?• Classification of incoming asteroid

References1. Houdu, Guillaume. “Hypervelocity Nuclear Interceptor Proposed for Asteroid Impactors”.

http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2012/09/25/innovative-hypervelocity-nuclear-interceptor-spacecraft-mitigating-impact-threat-asteroids/. 25 September 2012

2. Maccone, Caldio. “Planetary Defense From Space: Part I – Keplerian Theory”. Acta Astronautica. 4 May 2004. 3. Thangavelu, Madhu. “Putting Surplus Nukes to Good Use”. www.spacenews.com. 12 April 2010.4. Wei, Bong. “An Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation

Mission Architecture Development”. NIAC Fall Symposium, November 14-15, 2012, Hampton, VA 5. Wei, Bong. “Hypervelocity Nuclear Interceptors for Asteroid Deflection or Disruption”. 2011 IAA Planetary Defense

Conference, 09-12 May 2011.6. Wei, Bong. “Optimal Fragmentation and Dispersion of Hazardous Near-Earth Objects”. NIAC Phase I Final Report.

25 September 2012.7. http://cosmoquest.org/forum/showthread.php/40725-How-to-Colonize-the-Moon-without-breaking-NASA-s-

budget8. http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/26/rush-on-to-find-fragments-of-california-meteor/9. http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/12/07/thousands-of-nearby-asteroids-are-big-enough-to-harm-earth-nasa/10. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/programs/linear.html

http://spacewatch.lpl.arizona.edu/11. http://timeforchange.org/nuclear-energy-and-nuclear-weapons-per-country12. http://www.adrc.iastate.edu/13. http://www.defense.gov/news/briefingslide.aspx?briefingslideid=18214. http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/nasa-plans-armageddon-spacecraft-to-blast-asteroid-215924/15. http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-13816. http://www.missilethreat.com/missiledefensesystems/id.17/system_detail.asp17. http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12842&page=118. http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/deepimpact/mission/index.html19. http://www.strath.ac.uk/space/research/missionsystems/asteroiddeflectiontechnologies/

Thank you!!

Back-up Slides

Stand-off Vs. Subsurface Shaped Nuclear Detonation

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