Is Sustainable Development Feasible? including (maybe) Hurricane Katrina: a development failure? Dr...

Is Sustainable Development Feasible? including (maybe)

Hurricane Katrina: a development failure?

Dr John C Mutter

The world is "The world is "on an on an unsustainableunsustainable trajectorytrajectory. . Politics is centralPolitics is central but we but we have almost no politics on this issue. have almost no politics on this issue. We're fighting all the wrong wars. We We're fighting all the wrong wars. We haven't even started to fight the wars on haven't even started to fight the wars on poverty, disease, and environmental poverty, disease, and environmental degradation”degradation”

J.D. Sachs 2006J.D. Sachs 2006

the “the “gap between science and society is gap between science and society is profound and extraordinarily dangerous profound and extraordinarily dangerous ... ... These [issues of sustainability] are scientific These [issues of sustainability] are scientific problems first and foremost. We will require problems first and foremost. We will require massive improvements in science and massive improvements in science and technology and their applications, if nine technology and their applications, if nine billion people are to live better lives. billion people are to live better lives.

Without improvements, we'll have war and Without improvements, we'll have war and violence and benighted global disarrayviolence and benighted global disarray ."."

By By developmentdevelopment we mean we mean

….the challenge of spreading social, political and economic opportunity to the entire global community, particularly the poorest of the poor.

By By sustainablesustainable we mean …. we mean ….

……managing the world’s development in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate.

The divide The divide todaytoday

richrich poorpoor

GNP PPP/personGNP PPP/person $26,320$26,320 $4,450$4,450

population population (billion)(billion)

1.21.2 5.35.3

% increase/year% increase/year 0.10.1 1.51.5

% with HIV/AIDS% with HIV/AIDS 0.50.5 1.41.4

infant mortality infant mortality raterate

6/10006/1000 59/100059/1000

children/womanchildren/woman 1.61.6 3.03.0

life expectancylife expectancy 7676 6565

% urban% urban 7676 4141

people/kmpeople/km22 2424 6464

Global GDP per capita for the last 3000 yrs

Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted

Territory displayed in proportion to GDP

GDP Wealth

(Source: www.worldmapper.org)

China’s wealth doubles every 7 yrsIndia’s wealth doubles every 10 yrs

Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate

Wealth increases

(Source: www.worldmapper.org)

China’s wealth doubles every 7 yrsIndia’s wealth doubles every 10 yrs

Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate

Wealth decreases

(Source: www.worldmapper.org)

Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate

Living on less $10 a day

(Source: www.worldmapper.org)

Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate

Living on less $1 a day

(Source: www.worldmapper.org)

Disasters and the poorest

Does this have to be?

Kararo Ethiopia

Collecting water Collecting water near Kararo near Kararo EthiopiaEthiopia

Disasters and the poorest

Does this have to be?

Can our science help people like Can our science help people like this ……this ……

Kararo Kararo Village Village Ethiopia Ethiopia

Can our science help people like Can our science help people like this ……this ……

A summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in A summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three basic aspects of human development: three basic aspects of human development:

LONGEVITYLONGEVITY -- life expectancy at birth; -- life expectancy at birth;

KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE -- a combination of the adult literacy rate and the -- a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio;combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio;

STANDARD of LIVINGSTANDARD of LIVING -- GDP per capita (Adjusted for Purchasing Power -- GDP per capita (Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, PPP, in US$).Parity, PPP, in US$).

HDIHDI is a more comprehensive measure of deprivation than income. is a more comprehensive measure of deprivation than income.

The UNDP Human Development Index (HDI)

Young female illiteracy

Growth in tertiary education

Scientific research output (publications)

Life expectancy at birth

Infant MortalityInfant Mortality

Infant mortality

Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate

Maternal mortality

HDI World distribution

Territory displayed in proportion to illiteracy rate

Development decreases

(Source: www.worldmapper.org)

Territory displayed in proportion to wealth

GDP vs HDI

GDP

HDI

GDP per capita as a function of latitude.

Poverty has a latitudinal dependence

(J. Sachs)

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

HDI (1980-2000)

Latitude

(negative indicates South)

HDI lowest 40%

HDI middle 40%

HDI highest 20%

HDI versus latitude

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

HDI (1980-2000)

Latitude

(negative indicates South)

HDI lowest 40%

HDI middle 40%

HDI highest 20%

HDI versus latitude

Why th

is

slope?

What causes this development gap?

No chance correlationEnvironment mattersto human well being

Malthus was not entirely right

Malaria mortality

Regions burdened by malaria cannot achieve development

Bad governance is only part of the problem

Most conflict regions today are poor

Some corrupt countries do develop

CORRUPTION LEVELS COMPARABLE TO ASIA

Increasing Corruption Decreasing Corruption

Economic Growth1990-2003

Africa

Asia

Gha

naC

hina

Sen

egal

Rw

anda

Indi

aM

ali

Tan

zani

aM

alaw

i

Vie

tnam

Uga

nda

Cam

bodi

a

Eth

iopi

a

Indo

nesi

a

Ken

ya Pak

ista

n

Nig

eria

Ban

glad

esh

8.0

4.0

2.0

Post-cold war conflicts wrt GDP as of 2004

Most conflict regions today are poor

Conflict-related mortality

Regions in conflict cannot achieve development of any kind

Drought mortality

Africa remains almost the only place where drought kills

Drought in the Sahal

More than a decade of persistent drought in area like HoA

Climate variability and Malaria risk in Botswana

Conflict and Drought

Environmental stress > Scarcity > Conflict

Simple growth models

Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development

From Kiminori Matsuyama

Simple growth models

Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development

Richer countries

Poor countries

Poverty traps

Growth

Poverty TrapPoverty Trap

A self perpetuating condition in the economy of a country in which poverty becomes the driver of further poverty

Considered to be a low level equilibrium condition - a trap

Many environmental factors can lead to the creation of poverty traps

Poor countries are NOT embryonic rich countries waiting their turn; they have fundamentally different characteristics and must be treated differently

Poverty trap causesPoverty trap causes• Family child labor• Illiteracy• Debt bondage• Under-nutrition/illness• Low skill• High fertility• Subsistence• Farm erosion (soil depletion)• Common property mismanagement• Crime• Working capital• Mental health• Conflict• Gender inequality

Basic questions

Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development

Can growth be sustained ?

Can growth be achieved?

Can development be

achieved? Can development be sustained?

Can development be sustained?

By prefacing with By prefacing with sustainablesustainable,, we refer to the objective of we refer to the objective of managing the world’s development managing the world’s development in a manner consistent with the in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate. atmosphere and climate.

To do nothing more than close To do nothing more than close the development gap between the the development gap between the top and the bottom (no growth at top and the bottom (no growth at the top and no population the top and no population increase) would mean a increase) would mean a

4-fold4-fold increase in world economic increase in world economic output. output.

Add 1.5 billion people (3 Add 1.5 billion people (3 billion is more likely) and billion is more likely) and allow the top to continue to allow the top to continue to grow and prosper at current grow and prosper at current rates, then closing the rates, then closing the development gap requires a development gap requires a

6 -Fold6 -Fold

increase in world economic increase in world economic output. output.

BUT ……BUT ……

Economic optimists note that since the Economic optimists note that since the industrial revolution the world economic industrial revolution the world economic output has increased output has increased

40 Fold40 Fold (some say 50) (some say 50)

and population has increased only 4 Fold. and population has increased only 4 Fold.

So, on average, we are 10 times better off So, on average, we are 10 times better off than we were before the industrial than we were before the industrial revolution. revolution.

No problem!No problem!

But ……. the industrial era growth in But ……. the industrial era growth in prosperity has been very uneven (the great prosperity has been very uneven (the great divergence) and was achieved at a time divergence) and was achieved at a time when resources needed for growth were when resources needed for growth were essentially limitless. essentially limitless.

Ample evidence now suggests that limits Ample evidence now suggests that limits are being approached and the ideal world are being approached and the ideal world

development may be unattainable.development may be unattainable.

Sustainability issuesSustainability issues

Hitting environmental boundary conditions that can turn off growth, perhaps very suddenly.

System is deeply interconnected and non-linear and likely has cascading multipliers -- tipping points

Limits may not signal their arrival -- collapse can be rapid with no precursor

Climate Change, Water, Food and Agriculture, Biodiversity

Energy, Urbanization, Population,

Ecological debtors and creditors

>50% in debt

> 50% in credit

Ecological footprint by region

Neutral

Water stress indicator

Carbon dioxide per capita 2002

Carbon dioxide emissions per capita 2002

Carbon dioxide per capita by country

Many measures of this sort abound in Many measures of this sort abound in the literature all of which imply the literature all of which imply that the developing world cannot that the developing world cannot catch up to the top billion along catch up to the top billion along the pathway that got us here without the pathway that got us here without very alarming consequences for the very alarming consequences for the

future of the planet.future of the planet.

Basic questions

Regions burdened by malria cannot achieve development

Can growth be sustained ?

Can growth be achieved?

Can development be

achieved? Can development be sustained?

Can development be sustained?

1. Disease Ecology Depends on Economics

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases

Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory

I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

2. Economics Depends on Disease Ecology

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases

Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory

M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases

… forms poverty trap

Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory

M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.

I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases

… forms poverty trap

Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory

M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.

I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases

… forms poverty trap

Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory

M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.

I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases

… forms poverty trap

Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory

M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.

I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases

… forms poverty trap

Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory

M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.

I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases

… forms poverty trap

Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory

M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.

I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases

… forms poverty trap

M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.

I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases

… forms poverty trap

Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory

M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.

I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

PovertyTrap

Economic Growth

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases

… forms poverty trap

Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory

M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.

I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

PovertyTrap

Economic Growth

Modeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious DiseasesModeling Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases

… forms poverty trap

Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory

M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.

I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

The human health poverty trapThe human health poverty trap

Poor people are at greater risk of ill healthand …

… poor health increases the likelihood of becoming poor.

Establishes a self-perpetuating state that differs from health issue for the rich