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7/28/2019 Iran's Nuclear Ambitions 2013
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www.time4education.comTriumphant Institute of
Management Education Pvt. Ltd.
Iran'sNuclear
Ambitions
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Largest Shia republic; Force to reckon within the Islamic World
Rivals Saudi Arabia for hegemony over theMuslim World
Ruled by hard-line Islamic ClericalAdministration since the 1979 IslamicRevolution
Iran: Basic fact-sheet
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Home to worlds largest second gas and fourthlargest oil reserves
Describes the U.S. (since 1979) and Israel asenemies of Islam
U.S. views Iran as a major sponsor of terrorism part ofAxis of Evil
Situation compounded as hardliners are in power Mahmoud Ahmedinejad (prez)
Iran: Basic fact-sheet
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Reasons for Irans confrontationwith the West
Accused by the IAEA/U.S./EU of pursuingnuclear weapons; charge denied by Iran
Tehran says its nuke program is peaceful &aimed at civil energy generation
IAEA asks Iran open its nuclear facilities toinspections
International demands for rollback of nuclearprogram ignored
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Irans Nuclear SitesIrans Nuclear Sites
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Important sidelight
Iran is a member of the NPT NPT forbids members other than the P5
from owning / pursuing nuclear weapons
Iran is also an IAEA member hence it shouldabide by its resolutions
Iran is desperately trying to get into the WTO,a move stymied by the West, esp. the U.S.
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State of the EconomState of the Econom
GDP US$482 bn; contracted by 1% in 2012
GDP Per Capita: US$6419
4th largest oil reserves & 2nd largest oil exporter;
2nd largest gas reserves; energy contributes 25%to GDP
FDI drying up because of sanctions; exchange value ofRial is falling
High misery index: unemployment at over 13% &inflation at over 25%
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What about negotiations?
Talks between Iran & E3 (Britain, France, &Germany) do not yield much
E3, backed by the U.S., adopts carrot & stickapproach
Carrot: Will back Irans entry into the WTO
Stick:Threatens Iran with eventual reference toUNSC for tightening economic sanctions
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22004 - Iran agrees to freeze its nuclear004 - Iran agrees to freeze its nuclear weaponsweaponsprogram in return for E3's support of its WTOprogram in return for E3's support of its WTO
entry bidentry bid
Tehran reneges on this accord after MahmoudTehran reneges on this accord after MahmoudAhmedinejad takes officeAhmedinejad takes office
Iran openly defies the IAEA/U.S./EUIran openly defies the IAEA/U.S./EU
What about negotiations?
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U.S. doesn't rule out military action againstIran to destroy its nuclear facilities
Iran says that it won't give in to pressure tactics
Russia proposes a way out: offers Iran to enrichuranium at nuclear plants in Russia
Iran declines the offer
What about negotiations?
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The Israel factor Iran calls for wiping Israel off the map of the
world
Tehran accused of supporting anti-IsraelIslamic militant groups like the Hezbollah
Israel hints at striking at Iran's nuclear facilitiesto destroy them
Israel puts pressure on the U.S. for militarystrike
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Impact of U.S. Sanctions
No country can buy energy resources from Iran
Also sanctions have banned supply of nuclear-relatedtechnology & materials
Imposed assets freeze on key Iranian individuals &companies
No business/financial transactions with Iran; if anycountry/company is found violating this aspect, thensuch entity will be banned from US financial market
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Already crippling the countrys fragile economy
Would lead to flight of foreign capital
May not be able to sell oil and gas products itsmost important forex earner
The above would have a spiralling effect on theeconomy pulling it down further into a severe crisis
Impact of US Sanction
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What could
happen
next?
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Likely Scenario: Military action
Iran riskspossible military confrontation with theU.S. & Israel
An Iraq-type invasion by the U.S. (aided by Israel& NATO) could try and replace the currentHardliner administration
A favourable dispensation in Tehran would make
the U.S. job much easier
While this appearsfar-fetched, it is being stronglyconsidered by the U.S.
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Impact of negotiations:
Freeze its uranium enrichment program
Abandons weapons pursuit
Opens all nuke facilities to IAEA inspections
Wins EU and U.S. support for WTO entry
Most unlikely to happen!
Likely Scenario: I ran gives in
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