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INVESTOR PRESENTATIONNovember, 2017
01REFINING INDUSTRY
02COMPANY OVERVIEW
03KEY FINANCIALS
04INVESTMENTS
CONTENTS
01 REFINING INDUSTRY
26,0
50,7
40,3
56,3
49,247,5
53,4
44,3
52,4
59,3
55,3
64,0
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17
PROS
OPEC & Non OPEC Supply Cut
Political Instabilities
Healthy PMI data in US and Europe
Expectation of high global GDP
Inventory levels
Brent Crude Oil Prices ($/bbl)
4
CONS
Increase in number of rigs & production in US
Concerns about the impact of OPEC & Non OPEC
production cuts
Increase in Libya, Brazil, Nigeria & Canada prod.
High crude exports of OPEC
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
China India Middle East Other Asia Other JapanNorth
America Europe
810 640
160 195 52-255
-543 -486
334
150
340 135
-145
-109 -266
160
250
18184
180
-240
65
-421
530
526
302
-775
-546
520
400
120
390
-140
305
-352
270
510
198
-443
63
-189
244
300 417
150
40
-130
364
-57
70
156
-220
76
-143
105
-268
Th
ou
san
ds
2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016
Refinery Capacity ChangeTh
ou
san
dB
arre
ls/D
ay
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1.678 1.790
1.041
1.685
407
1.335
679
1.082 1.080
Source: Tüpraş, Reuters, Reports
Gross Capacity Additions
5
Turkish Economy Strengths
7980
8181
82
76
78
80
82
84
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Population (mn)
0-40 yrs >65%
9,28,8
2,1
4,2
3,0
4,0
2,9
5,0 5,1
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q1 2017Q2
GDP (%)
127
134 176
213
0
50
100
150
200
250
2014 2015 2020 2030
Car ownership per thousand people
67%
Source: EMRA, TSI
1.4% growth in last 5 yrs2002-2014 4.9%2010-2014 5.4%
22
23
24
25
26
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Diesel Consumption 3.5%
annual
growth8.7% average growth in last 5 yrs
6
Competitive Advantages of Tüpraş
Added Value
Created by Tüpraş
Best Fit for the Market with high diesel yield
High Complexity of Tüpraş
Presence in all overTurkey through
refineries and terminals
Local Market Dynamics
High Growth
Short on Diesel
Import Parity Pricing(Freight advantage of
Tüpraş)
Cost Base of Tüpraş
Energy Efficient
Crude Oil & FeedstockCost Advantage
Economies of Scale
7
8
Middle Distillate Cracks ($/bbl)
Source: Platts*As of November 8th, 2017
15,1
14,514,8
7,67,27,8 8,6
7,3
9,7 8,9 8,79,4
12,0 11,5 10,010,4
11,110,0
11,210,6
10,412,4 12,9
14,113,5 12,0
0
4
8
12
16
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov* Dec
Diesel
2014 2015 2016 2017
13,3
14,815,1
8,06,6
7,6 7,76,7
7,7 9,18,2 7,6 8,1
10,5 10,9 9,1
9,5 10,18,9
10,29,5 10,1
11,7
12,7 12,6 11,7 12,2
0
4
8
12
16
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov* Dec
Jet Fuel
Light Distillate Cracks ($/bbl)
-7,9
-11,7
-7,3
-7,3
2,4
-4,0
-0,5
-0,7
-2,2 -2,0-3,2 -3,0
-2,2-1,3
-1,2 -0,70,4
-12
-8
-4
0
4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov* Dec
Naphta
-46,0
-31,0
-4,7-2,2
-21,9
-17,2
-12,2-10,2
-19,5
-19,8
-14,9
-20,5
-15,4-13,8
-10,9
-15,5
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Agu Sep Oct Nov* Dec
LPG
9,8
15,7
18,6
11,7 12,8
9,111,4
13,411,9
13,514,1
12,2
15,913,7 13,4
14,3
15,9 14,8
11,7
11,8
0
6
12
18
24
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov* Dec
Gasoline2014 2015 2016 2017
9Source: Platts*As of November 8th, 2017
Quarterly Product Crack Margins ($/bbl)
10
14,4
11,210,7
9,4
7,3 7,7 7,9
10,29,5 9,9
12,4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Jet Fuel
2015 2016 2017
13,0
19,418,9
13,5
15,214,5
10,9
12,8
13,314,3
15,0
10
12
14
16
18
20
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Gasoline
2015 2016 2017
-11,6 -12,0
-13,1
-12,5
-13,2
-15,0
-10,6
-5,7
-9,1
-7,0 -6,9
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Fuel Oil
2015 2016 2017
15,715,2
14,6
10,8
7,99,2 8,9
11,210,5 10,7
13,1
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Diesel
2015 2016 2017
Source: Platts
11
Crude Price Differentials (USD/bbl)
-1,23 -1,46
-1,73
-1,12 -1,37 -0,96
-0,67 -0,28
-1,11 -0,63
-0,43
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov* Dec
2012-2017 Differental Range 2015 2016 2017
Brent
Ural Differentials
Price Differentials
-12
-8
-4
0
Ural Iran Heavy Kirkuk Kuwait Basra Heavy Arab Heavy
Brent
Source: Platts*As of November 7th, 2017
Turkish Consumption (Million tons) 2014-2016
17,43
20,56
22,31
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
2014
2015
2016
Diesel
4,10
4,58
4,40
0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0
2014
2015
2016
Jet Fuel
1,92
2,10
2,23
0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 2,2
2014
2015
2016
Gasoline
0,71
0,60
0,58
0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8
2014
2015
2016
Fuel Oil*
12Source: EMRA*bunker excluded.
+8.5 %
+15.8 %
+9.1 %
+6.5 %
-14.6%
-3.5%
+12 %
-4%
2,94
3,01
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5
2016
2017
Jet Fuel
+2.5%
8 Months 2017 - Turkish Consumption (Million tons)
14,46
15,67
0 4 8 12 16
2016
2017
Diesel
1,49
1,55
0,0 0,4 0,8 1,2 1,6
2016
2017
Gasoline
+4.3%
0,37
0,31
0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40
2016
2017
Fuel Oil*
Source: EMRA*bunker excluded.
13
+8.4%
-15.9%
Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net) (Million Ton)
-3,0
2,1
-10,0
1,5
-3,0
2,5
-10,8
1,6
-3,1
2,4
-12,0
1,0
-3,1
2,5
-12,7
1,8
-3,0
3,0
-12,3
1,6
-3,4
2,8
-13,0
0,3
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Export
Import
14
02 COMPANY OVERVIEW
Kırıkkale
• 5.0 MT Capacity
• NC: 6.32
• Storage Capacity: 1.41
mn m3
Tüpraş Refining Assets & Distribution Network
İzmir
İzmit
Ankara
İstanbul
Kırıkkale
Batman
Kirkuk
Baku
Terminal Refinery
OPETGiresun Terminal
OPETMersin Terminal
OPETAntalya Terminal
OPETMarmara Terminal
Total Capacity: 28.1 mn. tonNelson Complexity: 9.5Tüpraş Storage Cap.: 7.2 mn. mᶟOPET Storage Cap.: 1.1 mn. mᶟ
19,392 m3 240,000 m3
721,000 m343,130 m3
İzmit
• 11.0 MT Capacity
• NC: 14.5
• Storage Capacity: 3.03
mn m3
İzmir
• 11.0 MT Capacity
• NC: 7.66
• Storage Capacity:2.51 mn m3
• Base oil 400 k tons
Batman
• 1.1 MT Capacity
• NC: 1.83
• Storage Capacity:0.25
mn m3
Crude Pipeline
TurkeyStorage Capacity
16
4.1, 33%
7.2, 58%
1.1, 9%Other
Companies
OPET
Tüpraş
OPET
1.553 Stations
Market positions: 17.9% in White product; 16.6% in black product
1.1 Million M3 Storage
• Marmara, Aegean, Black Sea & Mediterranean
International Trading
• London
Jet Fuel Sales
• Turkish Airlines JV
• 66% Market Share
Lubricants
• Fuchs JV
2nd Biggest Distribution Companyby Volume
• # 1 Brand Royalty Award
17
Tüpraş Share 40.0%
DİTAŞ, Marine Transport
DİTAŞ Financials 2016 (mn $)
Net Sales 151,3
Op. Profit 40,5
13 tugboats
10 mooring boats
2 service boats
1 pilot boat
One of the biggest Turkish marine transportation companies of crude oil and petroleum products Carries mainly Tüpraş’ crude oil purchases and makes the transfer operations of product and
semi-products.
19,314,8
6,4 4,8 6,69,3
2,6
3,1
3,13,5
5,2
5,9
21,9
18,0
9,68,4
11,8
15,2
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mill
ion
Ton
s
Crude Oil Product
18
Tüpraş Share 79.98%
Products►2011
►6,3 K DWT
Leyla
Bitumen►2x20 K DWT
►Esra 2014
►Aylin 2015
Esra & Aylin
Products►2009
►10,9 K DWT
Caroline
Products►2009
►11,5 K DWT
Nevbahar
Crude►2001
►164,9 K DWT
Cumhuriyet
Products►Sevgi 2008
►Gönül 2009
►2x11 K DWT
Gönül&Sevgi
Products►2012
►51,5 K DWT
SunaSadberk
Crude►2017
►159 K DWT
Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons)
9,7
2,1
2,0
2,4
3,1
1,1 0
,1
0,0
0,3
7,2
2,0
2,8 2
,3
3,8
1,5
0,3
1,0 0
,6
5,1
1,5
2,9 2
,4
6,1
1,5
0,3
0,7
0,6
5,3
0,6
1,9
2,4
5,7
1,6
0,2
0,1
2,6
5,4
7
3,1
1
2,3
9
2,5
7
11
,54
0,5
9
0,3
0
0,0
0 1,4
3
6,9
8
3,2
4
2,2
6
2,5
8
9,2
5
0,6
0
0,0
3
0,0
0
2,8
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
I RAN RUSSI A S. ARABI A TURK EY I RAQ K AZ AK STAN I TAL Y L İ BYA OTHER
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 19
In 2016, Tüpraş purchased 18 different types of crude oil from 10
countries, with gravities ranging between 19-48 API
6,3%
41,7%
52,0%
Crude Type - 2016
>34 30-34 30>
Margin Environment ($/bbl)
Premium to the benchmark Mediterranean
peers’ refining margin due to:
► Refined products deficit characteristic to
the Turkish market
► Access to cheaper sources of crude oil
Ability to use heavier and sour crudes
► Proximity to major suppliers
Reduces transport costs
► Implemented cost reduction measures
Energy efficiency programs
► Capacity to produce higher value
added range of refined products
► Direct pipeline connections with
domestic clients
► High export capability
5,54
1,95
2,89
1,17
4,21
1,671,95
4,83
3,97
5,70
-0,5
1,5
3,5
5,5
7,5
9,5
J-08
M-0
8M
-08
J-08
S-0
8N
-08
J-09
M-0
9M
-09
J-09
S-0
9N
-09
J-10
M-1
0M
-10
J-10
S-1
0N
-10
J-11
M-1
1M
-11
J-11
S-1
1N
-11
J-12
M-1
2M
-12
J-12
S-1
2N
-12
J-13
M-1
3M
-13
J-13
S-1
3N
-13
J-14
M-1
4M
-14
J-14
S-1
4N
-14
J-15
M-1
5M
-15
J-15
S-1
5N
-15
J-16
M-1
6M
-16
J-16
S-1
6N
-16
J-17
M-1
7M
-17
J-17
S-1
7
MonthAnnual
Med Complex
20
9,610,6
11,911,2
13,0
2,453,21
6,47 6,03
8,50
1,67 1,95
4,833,97
5,80
0
4
8
12
16
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 9M
Tüpraş Gross Margin Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin
Capacity Utilisation* (%)
Production
21*Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations.
64,9
99,6 96,8108,9
4,1
4,4 5,2
7,6
69,0
104,0 102,0
116,5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2
Crude Oil Other Total
Quarterly Production Volume (Mil. Tons)
MAINTENANCE SHUTDOWN
Izmir Refinery Crude Unit (Capacity: 6,5 mtons/year)
• The maintenance shutdown in Q4 is expected to be completed in
January 2018.
• The effect of this maintenance shutdown has been included in
our year-end estimations.
4,54,6
5,4 5,5
5,6
6,9
7,37,4
6,6 6,7
7,27,4
7,1
7,8 7,7
4
5
6
7
8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017
Gasoline20%
Naphtha1%
Jet17%
ULSD34%
Other6%
Coke3%
Fuel Oil8%
ASRFO+Vac0% Bitumen
11%Gasoline21%
Naphtha1%
Jet17%
ULSD32%
Other6%
Coke2%
Fuel Oil8%
ASRFO+Vac1%
Bitumen12%
9M Product Yields
22
Light Distil.22,2%
Mid. Distil.49,5%
Other 5,5%
Black Prod.22,7%
White Product %76,98Production : 22,43 mn tons
API: 30,32
White Product %76,20Production : 20,32 mn tons
API: 30,81
% +1
20172016
1,7
0,0
Light Distil.21,3%
Mid. Distil.51,2%
Other 5,6%
Black Prod.21,9%
-0,8 -0,8
0,8 0,9 1,0 0,8 1,0 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,2 1,5 1,3 1,50,9 1,1 1,0
0,2 0,3 0,4 0,3 0,40,6 0,9 0,9 0,8
1,1 1,21,3
0,50,9 0,90,4 0,4
0,50,4
0,50,5 0,6 0,6 0,5
0,6 0,60,7
0,40,5 0,51,5
1,72,3
2,3 1,7
2,22,8 2,8
1,8
2,6 2,93,2
1,7
2,6 2,92,9
3,3
4,1 3,93,5
4,6
5,4 5,4
4,3
5,8 6,06,7
3,6
5,1 5,3
0
2
4
6
8
14 15 16 17 14 15 16 17 14 15 16 17 14 15 16
Domestic sales of selected productsJet Fuel
Bitumen
Gasoline
Diesel
Tüpraş Sales (Million Tons)
23
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
3,6 3,95,1 5,0
4,15,4
6,4 6,6
4,9
6,8 6,97,7
4,3
6,2 6,4
1,11,7
1,8 2,3
0,9
1,91,3 1,4
1,5
1,2 1,21,2
1,8
1,7 1,3
4,75,6
6,9 7,2
4,7
7,37,7 8,1
6,4
7,9
6,1
7,9 7,6
0
2
4
6
8
10
14 15 16 17 14 15 16 17 14 15 16 17 14 15 16
Total SalesDomestic
Export 8,9
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
All Time High
Domestic
Sales
8,1
23
274355 400
186 177
628
974
1.213
959
344213
124
*125
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 9M
Investments (mn $)
24
Ongoing Projects
•New Power Plant
•Revamp of Crude Unit
•FCC Modernization
•New Sulphur Units
•Energy Saving Projects
•Optimization of
conversion units
Avg 943 mn $
Avg 278 mn $Avg. 279 mn $
• 9.5 Nelson complexity• High white product yield• Process more heavier and sour
crudes• Run all refineries with 100% capacity utilization
RUPTotal Investment: $ 3,2 Billion Total Incentive: TL 3,78 Billion Remaining: TL 3,18 Billion
03 KEY FINANCIALS
Financial Highlights (mn $)
95 79 150 150 114
427153 78
-27
415237
431
361315 226
410
294
435
10689
-11
422
480715560
338
1.397
1.1251.292
-50
250
550
850
1.150
1.450
1.750
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EBITDA1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q Total
16172
231112
27235
7575
171273
113
405309 435
175 268
197
283271
47 91
285
256
817
629 667
938
594
923
-50
200
450
700
950
1.200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net Income1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q Total
551
1.3401.869
1.5981.663
2.577
2.748
2.370 2.391
1.7511.729
1.555
1.680
1.2
40
0,8
2,4
3,5 3,6
4,9
3,32,8
1,7
2,01,6
1,51,1
1,00,7
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
Net Debt Net Debt/*R. EBITDA
0,3
0
0,3
2
0,2
4
0,2
6
0,3
5
0,0
4 0,1
1 0,1
6 0,2
2
0,4
5
0,5
5
0,4
9
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
Return on Average Equity
26• For P&L, USD/TL rates: 2016 Q3 2,96; 9M 2,93; 12M 3,02 and 2017 Q3 3,51; 9M 3,59.
• For Balance Sheet, USD/TL rates: 2016 Q3 3,0; 9M 2016: 3,0; 12M 2016: 3,52 and 2017 Q3 3,55; 9M 3,55 USD/TL
• Net Debt/Rolling EBITDA was calculated with USD figures.
Balance Sheet Analysis
1,721,69
1,30
1,641,68
1,211,04
0,821,04
1,641,59
2,45
1,72
2,02
1,58
2,19
0
1
2
3
Cash & Equivalents (Billion $)
0,93
0,710,520,51
0,090,20
0,66
1,070,88
0,70
0,910,75
0,911,091,15
1,57
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
Receivables (Billion $)
2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,8 2,9 2,8 3,1 2,892,95
2,1 2,1
0,5
0,90,3 0,3 0,3
0,4 0,5 0,60,6
1,0 1,21,1
0,56 0,63
1,1 1,3
3,1
3,7
3,2 3,2 3,33,7 3,6 3,6 3,4
3,9 4,04,2
3,453,573,3
3,4
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
Financial Loans (Billion $)
LT Loans ST Loans
3,2
2
3,1
0 3,2
8
3,0
4
2,4
6
1,7
4
1,7
0
1,5
9
1,3
6
1,2
3
1,6
9 1,9
8
2,0
2
2,6
2
2,1
9 2,7
1
0
1
2
3
4
Payables (Billion $)
27
• For P&L, USD/TL rates: 2016 Q3 2,96; 9M 2,93; 12M 3,02 and 2017 Q3 3,51; 9M 3,59.
• For Balance Sheet, USD/TL rates: 2016 Q3 3,0; 9M 2016: 3,0; 12M 2016: 3,52 and 2017 Q3 3,55; 9M 3,55 USD/TL
Tüpraş Balance Sheet
28• For P&L, USD/TL rates: 2016 Q3 2,96; 9M 2,93; 12M 3,02 and 2017 Q3 3,51; 9M 3,59.
• For Balance Sheet, USD/TL rates: 2016 Q3 3,0; 9M 2016: 3,0; 12M 2016: 3,52 and 2017 Q3 3,55; 9M 3,55 USD/TL
Million USD 30.09.2007 31.12.2016 Diff. % Diff.Current Assets 5.522 3.884 1.638 42
Cash & C. Equivalents 2.185 1.719 466 27
Receivables 1.568 911 657 72
Derivatives 90 10 80 812
Inventories 1.255 1.025 229 22
Pre-paid expenses 29 28 1 4
Other Current Assets 395 190 204 107
Long Term Assets 4.985 4.987 -2 0
Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 294 264 31 12
Fixed Assets 3.377 3.338 40 1
Derivatives 23 105 -82 -78
Pre-paid expenses 66 68 -1 -2
Deferred Tax 930 917 13 1
Other Long Term Assets 294 296 -3 -1
Total Assets 10.507 8.871 1.636 18
Short Term Liabilities 5.486 3.597 1.889 52
Financial Loans 1.304 556 747 134
Payables 2.709 2.020 689 34
Derivatives 98 8 89 1069
Deferred Incomes 2 4 -2 -57
Provisions 46 18 27 149
Other ST Liabilities 1.328 990 338 34
Long Term Liabilities 2.184 2.953 -768 -26
Financial Loans 2.122 2.892 -770 -27
Payables & Provisions 60 59 1 2
Derivatives 1 1 0 37
Other LT Liabilities 1 2 0 -8
Equity 2.808 2.298 510 22
Minority Interests 28 22 6 26
Total Liabilities 10.507 8.871 1.636 18
1,73
3,242,94
4,96
5,83
4,78
0
10,18
7,16
2,31 2,502,98
3,93 3,85
1,58
6,506,22
579626
746
985 964
396
1.6281.557
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Payout (Mn. TL)Earnings per Share Gross Dividend Total Payout
2012/2013 EPS includes the tax incentive 29
One of the highest dividend yield in BIST
In principle; as far as the related regulations, investment needs and financial situation allow, the entire amount of the “net distributable profit for the period”, calculated within the frame of the Capital Markets Regulations, is distributed in
cash – taking into consideration the market expectations, long term company strategies, investment and financing policies, profitability and cash position – as long as it is covered from the existing resources in our legal records.
Dividend
Foreign Currency
Long Term
Tüpraş BBB-(IG) Ba1 (Pos.)
Turkey BB+ (stable) Ba1 (Neg.) BB
Koç Holding Baa3- (IG) BBB (IG)
BUY67%
HOLD; 33%
Analyst Recommendations
Tüpraş has one of the highest Corporate Governance Ratings
92,86
98,59
94,00
95,51
94,67
B O A R D
S T A K EH O L D ER S
T R A N S P A R EN C Y
S H A R EH O L D ER S
O V ER A L L
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE RATING
30
Creating Competitive & Sustainable Shareholder Value
•A significant portion of the Group'scrude oil and refined product purchasesare denominated in US Dollars. Inaddition, the Group finances its capitalexpenditures mostly throughborrowings denominated in US Dollars.
•Natural Hedge: The Group is able tomitigate some of the impact of volatilityin exchange rates through naturalhedges: crude oil and refined productinventories are US Dollar denominatedassets.
•Cash flow Hedge: RUP Facility financingloans designated as hedginginstruments of highly probable exportrevenues.
•As a general Koç Holding financialpolicy, Group companies are allowed tokeep foreign exchange positions withincertain limits.
31
FX Risk Exposure (30 Sept. 2017)
*Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,212 mn $
Consolidated Assets
Consolidated Liabilities
LT Financials: 1,935
RUP Loans: 1,111
Other credits 825
ST Financials 1.144
• RUP 296
•Eurobond 700
Payables
1,688
Forward & CFH
2,459
Stock
1,211
Receivables & other assets
24
Cash
960
Million $
-113 million $
Future Expectations
Brent Price Estimation
• The average Brent price in 2017 is expected to be 50-55 dollars per barrel.
Med Complex Margin
• We expect Med Complex margins to be between
5,25 - 5,75 dollars per barrel band in 2017.
Tüpraş Net Margin
• Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be in the region of 7,50 - 8,00 dollars per barrel
Operations
Expectations for 2017;
• Full Capacity Utilization on average even after taking IzmirMaintenance shut down into consideration
• Production: approximately 29.2 million tons
• Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production
• Total sales: 30.6 million tons
Investment • Refining investments is expected to be around 200 Million dollars. Additionally, around 125 million dollars investment is planned for increasing the marine tanker fleet capacity.
32
04 INVESTMENTS
8,7 8,2 8,9
5,05,4 6,5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
17 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4
Tupras Net Refinery Margin Med Margin
2017 Expectations vs 9 Months Results
54,7 55,1
51,652,5
50,4
46,5
48,6
51,6
56,0
40
45
50
55
60
J-17 F-17 M-17 A-17 M-17 J-17 J-17 A-17 S-17 O-17 N-17 D-17
Brent Price ($/bbl)
114,8
0
40
80
120
0
40
80
120
160
14
'Q1
14
'Q2
14
'Q3
14
'Q4
15
'Q1
15
'Q2
15
'Q3
15
'Q4
16
'Q1
16
'Q2
16
'Q3
16
'Q4
17
'Q1
17
'Q2
17
'Q3
Capacity Utilization (%)
• The average Brent in 2017 is expected to be in 50-55 $/bbl• In 9M, the average was 51,9 $/bbl
• Expected Capacity Utilization in 2017 - above 100 %• In 9M, 112.6% capacity utilization was achieved.
Net Tüpraş refinery margin for 9M: 8,5 $/bbl(Target is 7,50 - 8,00 $/bbl)
344
213124,3
73,5
0
100
200
300
400
2015 2016 2017 9M
Tüpraş Ditaş
Planned Tüpraş investments for 2017 - 200 Million dollars
74,9
102,5 105,3 112,6
197.7
Mil. $
34
Gasoline19%
Naphtha2%
Jet19%
ULSD32%
Other5%
Coke3%
Fuel Oil5%
ASRFO+Vac0%
Bitumen15%Gasoline
21%
Naphtha0%
Jet18%
ULSD34%
Other5%
Coke3%
Fuel Oil5%
Bitumen14%
Q3 Product Yields
35
Light Distil.22,5%
Mid. Distil.51,4%
Other 5,4%
Black Prod.20,7%
White Product %75,70Production : 7,6 mn tons
API: 29,57
White Product %77,32Production : 7,2 mn tons
API: 30,48
% -2
20172016
Light Distil.20,8%
Mid. Distil.50,8%
Other 5,1%
Black Prod.23,2%
Gasoline20%
Naphtha1%
Jet17%
ULSD34%
Other6%
Coke3%
Fuel Oil8%
ASRFO+Vac0% Bitumen
11%Gasoline21%
Naphtha1%
Jet17%
ULSD32%
Other6%
Coke2%
Fuel Oil8%
ASRFO+Vac1%
Bitumen12%
9M Product Yields
36
Light Distil.22,2%
Mid. Distil.49,5%
Other 5,5%
Black Prod.22,7%
White Product %76,98Production : 22,43 mn tons
API: 30,32
White Product %76,20Production : 20,32 mn tons
API: 30,81
% +1
20172016
1,7
0,0
Light Distil.21,3%
Mid. Distil.51,2%
Other 5,6%
Black Prod.21,9%
-0,8 -0,8
Sales By Customer (2016)
37
Total: 30.3 mn tons Distributors: 15.2 mn tons
Customer Groups Sales to Distributors
Income Statement (In USD)
Q3 Q3% Diff. Million USD 2016 9M 2017 9M % Diff.
2016 20173.199 4.068 27 Net Sales 8.215 10.946 33311 458 47 Gross Profit 699 1.339 92-83 -84 1 Operating Expenses -239 -221 -8-23 -6 -72 Income/Loss from other operations 8 16 118205 367 80 Operating Profit 467 1.135 143
21 19 -9 Income/Loss from equity investment 44 48 9
225 386 71 Operating Profit Before Fin. Income/Loss 512 1.183 13168 63 -8 Financial Income 113 125 10
-106 -98 -7 Finance Expenses -268 -273 2188 351 87 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 357 1.035 190197 283 43 Net Profit 338 923 173
250,7 408,1 62,8 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB 605,8 1.253,9 107,0
235,5 340,2 44,4 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB- CCS 496,0 1.155,2 132,9
• In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas CMB rules is that these should be included in operating profit.
38• For P&L, USD/TL rates: 2016 Q3 2,96; 9M 2,93; 12M 3,02 and 2017 Q3 3,51; 9M 3,59.
• For Balance Sheet, USD/TL rates: 2016 Q3 3,0; 9M 2016: 3,0; 12M 2016: 3,52 and 2017 Q3 3,55; 9M 3,55
294,12 434,67 47,79 EBITDA *(mn. $) 644,70 1.292,28 100,45
278,92 366,75 31,49 EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 534,90 1.193,60 123,14
Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in Q3 (FOB Italy Prices)
Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Production
Yield %
Crack Margin, $/bbl
2017 2016 2017 2016
LPG 399,0 291,5 3,4% -16,6 -19,9
Gasoline 544,5 461,0 20,2% 15,0 11,0
Naphtha 447,4 366,1 0,4% -1,6 -4,5
Jet Fuel 506,7 423,3 16,7% 12,4 8,0
Diesel 485,4 408,1 31,4% 13,1 9,0
Diesel 1000 467,2 397,8 1,1% 10,7 7,6
Fuel Oil 1% 300,1 247,0 0,4% -5,8 -7,8
Fuel Oil 3,5% 292,7 228,5 3,9% -6,9 -10,6
Others 272,9 220,7 18,7% -6,8 -9,3
Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 7,2 3,6
Dated Brent Avg. $/bbl 52,1 45,9
Margin Differences, $/bbl 3,6
Total Raw Materials Charge, mn bbl 57,3
Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ 206,3
Total Effect of Price Ratio, mn TL 724,3
39
High Complexity #1 (Nelson Complexity of Refinining Companies)
40
14,5
13,012,6
11,8 11,6 11,511,0
10,49,9 9,8 9,6 9,5 9,4 9,2 9,2 9,0 8,8 8,7
8,48,0
7,3 7,1 7,1 7,1 7,16,8
6,5
5,9 5,8 5,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Tüpraş Before RUP
Tüpraş After RUP
İzmitAfter RUP
High Complexity # 2 (Resid Upgrading Units Production-(Thousand Tons))
Raw Materials
Natural Gas 246
Vacuum Resid1,214
Atm. StraightRun Fuel Oil
3,036
Total Feed 4,496 Total Production 4,250
(kton)
Products(kton)
Diesel
2.883
Gasoline
522
LPG
69
PetroCoke
690
Sulphur
86
41
High Complexity # 3 (Tüpraş Total Production Change After RUP)
4,7
3,6
5,6
1,4
2,9
1,7
0,9
5,5
0,3
0,35
0,7
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Gasoline&Naptha
Jet Fuel
Diesel
Others
Fuel Oil
Coke
Bitumen
Before RUP After
%35
%25
%19
%-87
Million ton42
2,7
RUP production + 4 Refineries Capacities increase 9,1 mn tons,
instead of 4,2 mn ton
42
Flexibility & Reliability; Multiple routes to maksimum capacity
43
CRUDE OIL 970008
VACUUM 423208
NAPHTHA
SPLITTER8
LPG MEROX 6
ISOMERISATION 64003
UNIFINER REFORMER 169007
LPG
GASOLINE
NAPHTHA
JET
FUELOİL
DIESEL
LUBE
OIL
VA
CU
UM
MH
C2
22.0%
33.9%
0.5%
19.9%
Number
of unitsKey unitsCapacity
(m3/d)
Increased conversion capacity
Strong integration among refineries
KERO/DIES
EL (HDS) 3730010
3.5%
FCC 2 4700
182004
COKER 82001
LPG
MEROX
Yields
(%)
16.5%
BITUMEN &
FUEL OİL
OTHER 3.8%
More than one
distillation and
production units
VACUMM
DİST.
NAFTA
SPLITTER UNIFINER
REFORMER
KERO /
DIESEL
HDS
HYDROC.
FCC
COKER
ISOMER.
Benzen Saturation
FCC Benzin HDS
Lube Oil
Bitumen
CRUDE OIL
Flow Diagram
HYDROCRACKER
202
142 136
191
133
229
154 144
53 5842
23 49
223 247 264 278 301
266 357348
425443
457470 475
495
534 541
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Spa. TR Ger. EU19 Fra. Gre. UK Ita.
Tax Distr. Mar. Pump No Tax
Competition # 1 (European Pump Price Comparison)
Gasoline (Krş / Lt) Diesel 10 (Krş / Lt)
44
206
144 148 138 142194 189
145
48 23 41 53 53
269 315 355 356352 357
402 404
475507
526 536 547 551
592 603
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Spa. TR UK Fra. Ger Eu19 Gre. Ita.
Tax Distr. Marg. Pump No Tax
Note: Prices valid on 17 July 2017
Competition # 2 (Regional Competition)
Mediterranean Black Sea
Ukraine
Russia
Georgia
Turkey
Bulgaria
Romania
Moldova
EgyptLibya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
Portugal
Spain
France
Italy
Israel
Syria
TurkeyGreece
Albania
Croatia
54 Refineries
7.8mn bpd
17 Refineries
1.8mn bpd
Tüpraş is competing with 71 refineries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea markets.
Mediterranean regional product balance is also affected from Middle East, North West Europe and Asia.
45
Competition # 3 (SOCAR-STAR Refinery)
• Goldman Sachs has acquired a 13 percent stake in SOCAR Turkey for $1.3 billion.
• Goldman Sachs has the right to resell 10 percent of its stakes to Socar, and the remaining 3 percent to ‘SermayeInvestments Limited’ owned by SOCAR within 6 year at the same price.
Credit : 3.3 Billion $
Equity : 2.4 Billion $
Total Investment : 5.7 Billion $
STAR Refinery (Total Cap. 10 mn ton)• 3,3 billion dollar credit aggrement. First 4 year grace
period total 15-18 year term.• Project finance is supplied to company (US$ 1.5 billion)• It is planned to be commissioned in 2018.
Fuels
• Diesel 5.000
• Jet Fuel 1.700
• Sulphur 158
• Petrocoke 698
• LPG 260
• Naptha 1.300
• Mixed xylene 460
• Reformate 524
Petrochemical Feedstock
46
2019, mn ton
ProductionTurkish
DemandBalance
Tüpraş Star Total
LPG 1,2 0,3 1,5 4,2 -2,8
Petchem Feeds 0,3 2,6 2,9
Gasoline 5,8 5,8 2,4 3,4
Jet Fuel 5,4 1,6 7,0 5,0 2,0
Diesel 10,2 4,8 15 24,5 -9,5
Coke 0,8 0,7 1,5 4,6 -3,1
Fuel Oil 1,5 1,5 1,3 0,2
Bitumen 3,1 3,1 3,3 -0,2
Production (K Ton)
Marine Bunker Specification Changes and Its Effects
• IMO, at the meeting held in October 2016, lowered the sulphur emission cap from marine
bunkers from 3.5% to 0.5% (5000ppm): effective from 1 January 2020.
Bunker fuels account for; ~5% of global oil demand40% of oil related sulphur
emissions.
80% of global trade is done via marine transportation.
50.000 vessels are in operation.
HS Fuel Oil Diesel LS FO HS FO
Scrubbed
Mn
b/d
LS Fuel Gap
2,1
1,8
Source: IEA, Oil Sector Report, 2017
%19 Install
Scrubber
%5 switch
to LNG
%2 Other
%74 Buy
Low Sulphur
Fuel
Ship Owners Intention Survey
Requirements of spec change can be achieved through;
Use of lower sulphur blendstocks like ULSD (Diesel)
Low Sulfur Fuel Oil production with light crudes
Sulphur Fuel Reduction Systems (Scrubber)
LNG
Source: UBS, 2017
47
7,1
3,5
1,9
1,7
1,9
1,7
2,4
2,8
3,4
3,1
3,6
3,2
1,8
2,6
1,4
0,8
1,3
2,0
0,9
3,6
2,5
1,72,2
1,51,1
1,6
2,51,9
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Tüpraş Contractor Total
48
Tüpraş HSE KPI: Loss Time Incident Frequency and Severity Frequency Ratios
Loss Time Severity Frequency Rate 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Tüpraş 92 44 40 53 65 61 59 719 101
Contractor 116 101 81 118 424 17 378 51 551
Total 105 73 57 83 290 26 308 315 354
Incident Frequency
loss time incident freaquency rate =number of incident *1000000/man hours
loss severity frequency rate = loss time*1000000/man hours
İncluding contractors
4273
135
240
345376
398 407 416
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
49
Energy Index 116,1 101,8
Energy Saving Projects , mn$
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total
Tüpraş Energy consumption (TJ) 76.653 65.265 67.010 70.792 71.086 69.147 67.034 90.796 102.156 679.939
Energy-saving(TJ) 978 10.891 3.155 3.053 5.255 2.841 1.772 1.031 1.054 30.029
Energy Efficiency Project 36 52 65 92 97 40 22 21 18 443
Savings (mn $) 42 32 62 105 106 31 22 10 9 416
Updated information can be found in the Investor Relations section of the company website
www.tupras.com.tr
Investor Relations and Reporting DepartmentTel. : 262 316 3269Fax : 262 316 30 10-11Güney Mah. Petrol Cad. No .25 PK.41790 Körfez-Kocaeliwww.tupras.com.trE-mail: info@tupras.com.tr
DISCLAIMER
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current
views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in
these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in
underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any
liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.
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